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Date: 29 Nov 12:45:34
From: Ben Frisch
Subject: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200 with a
75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
What do you guys think?
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 10:54:33
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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On Nov 29 2006 5:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
with a
> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>
> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>
> What do you guys think?
It's about even, and really comes down to how often we have pushed prior.
I would tend to fold here after the bubble, if only because I am much more
likely to get called by a hand like A9 or KJ.
Fell
--
Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
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Date: 30 Nov
From: Tanya AKA MissT74
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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On Nov 29 2006 11:54 AM, FellKnight wrote:
> On Nov 29 2006 5:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>
> > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
> > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
> with a
> > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> >
> > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
> > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in
> > and
> > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
> > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
> > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> >
> > What do you guys think?
>
> It's about even, and really comes down to how often we have pushed prior.
> I would tend to fold here after the bubble, if only because I am much more
> likely to get called by a hand like A9 or KJ.
>
> Fell
> --
I'm actually surprised by this answer, as although I know I'M folding it,
without a doubt, I can totally put you on a total push move.
Interesting. I guess you're game IS evolving. : )
T
> Website: http://www.fellknight.com/
> Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
_______________________________________________________________
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 20:17:03
From: Omaholic
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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On Nov 29 2006 6:40 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:
> On Nov 29 2006 11:54 AM, FellKnight wrote:
>
> > On Nov 29 2006 5:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
> >
> > > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players
are
> > > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
> > with a
> > > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> > > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> > > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> > >
> > > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
will
> > > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> > > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in
> > > and
> > > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
we're
> > > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait
for
> > > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> > >
> > > What do you guys think?
> >
> > It's about even, and really comes down to how often we have pushed prior.
> > I would tend to fold here after the bubble, if only because I am much more
> > likely to get called by a hand like A9 or KJ.
> >
> > Fell
> > --
>
> I'm actually surprised by this answer, as although I know I'M folding it,
> without a doubt, I can totally put you on a total push move.
>
> Interesting. I guess you're game IS evolving. : )
>
> T
>
> > Website: http://www.fellknight.com/
> > Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
LOL, I was thinking the same thing (re Fell pushing).
I would push here, unless I had been pushing/stealing a fair amount
recently. If I have been playing tight/tightish, there is a fair chance
to pick up the blinds which gives me a few more chips to wait for an
A9/KJ/55 type of hand.
-------
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 17:10:26
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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On Nov 29 2006 10:54 AM, FellKnight wrote:
> On Nov 29 2006 5:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>
> > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players
are
> > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
> with a
> > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> >
> > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
will
> > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in
and
> > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
we're
> > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait
for
> > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> >
> > What do you guys think?
>
> It's about even, and really comes down to how often we have pushed prior.
> I would tend to fold here after the bubble, if only because I am much more
> likely to get called by a hand like A9 or KJ.
>
Personally I think it is an easy fold. You are at 17, but 10-17 all make
the same money, and it starts going up after that. Yes, your M is 4, and
the blinds are coming, but you have left yourself short stacked and 58o
is, well, not very good. Your cards might be live if you get called, but
so what? I might call with this hand if there are 4 all in in front of
me, cause the windfall of chips would be worth the risk (i.e. we aren't
probably going to make the final table anyway). I think I wait for a hand
like KQ or KJ before pushing, because one is coming for sure in the next
two rounds, AND in these things, people drop like flies at this level, and
you may be able to wait it out, get the the final table, and go on a rush.
I've made it the FT of these things with only this many chips at this
stage several times.
> Fell
> --
> Website: www.fellknight.com
> Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
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Date: 30 Nov 2006 13:16:51
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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On Wed, 29 Nov 2006 17:10:26 -0800, "brewmaster"
<brewmaster@brewcam.com > wrote:
>On Nov 29 2006 10:54 AM, FellKnight wrote:
>
>> On Nov 29 2006 5:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>>
>> > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players
>are
>> > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
>> with a
>> > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
>> > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
>> > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>> >
>> > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
>will
>> > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
>> > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in
>and
>> > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
>we're
>> > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait
>for
>> > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>> >
>> > What do you guys think?
>>
>> It's about even, and really comes down to how often we have pushed prior.
>> I would tend to fold here after the bubble, if only because I am much more
>> likely to get called by a hand like A9 or KJ.
>>
>
>Personally I think it is an easy fold. You are at 17, but 10-17 all make
>the same money, and it starts going up after that. Yes, your M is 4
2 and a bit.
> and
>the blinds are coming, but you have left yourself short stacked and 58o
>is, well, not very good.
It doesn't matter what your cards are. You don't want to get called.
> Your cards might be live if you get called, but
>so what? I might call with this hand if there are 4 all in in front of
>me, cause the windfall of chips would be worth the risk (i.e. we aren't
>probably going to make the final table anyway). I think I wait for a hand
>like KQ or KJ before pushing, because one is coming for sure in the next
>two rounds
Next round you are in last chance saloon and doubling up will put you
back where you are now.
> AND in these things, people drop like flies at this level, and
>you may be able to wait it out, get the the final table, and go on a rush.
> I've made it the FT of these things with only this many chips at this
>stage several times.
>
You need to realise, if you did, that you got very, very lucky.
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 09:33:23
From: BillyPilgrim
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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A key piece of information missing is my table image. If I've been at
that table for a while and not been very active, I might push. But if
it's a new table or I've been taking some stabs lately, caught or not, I
fold and wait for something a little better.
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 09:10:51
From: MrBookworm
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>
> What do you guys think?
1/3rd suckout chance means I only need to have them fold the other 17% of
the time to make this +EV. Plus, the Stars 180's pay the same for 10-18 so
folding to move up the pay scale at this point doesn't work. You need to
get some chips. PUSH.
Dean
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 08:46:08
From: Grip
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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Fold equity? There's no fold equity. The four players to act all have
Ms of 4. If the short stack pushes, at least one or two others will
too, with a range of J6+. It depends a little on what the other stacks
are (is UTG big stacked?). Wait a hand or two and push UTG with any
two if better cards don't come.
G
Ben Frisch wrote:
> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200 with a
> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>
> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>
> What do you guys think?
>
> _______________________________________________________________
> Watch Lists, Block Lists, Favorites - http://www.recpoker.com
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Date: 29 Nov 16:37:17
From: steve1127
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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On Nov 29 2006 7:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>
> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200 with
> a
> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>
> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>
> What do you guys think?
Stack size of the blinds -- esp the big blind -- is very important. Assuming an
average stack, I jam.
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 07:44:32
From: LKJ
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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There's validity to this statement, but A5o is obviously going to fare
a lot better against pairs that might wake up behind him, from KK-88.
A5 is at least going to be ~30% to beat everything but AA.
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 15:09:47
From: Sir Benjamin Nunn
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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"Ben Frisch" <bhfrisch@yahoo.com > wrote in message
news:1164804334$913023@recpoker.com...
>
> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players
> are
> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
> with a
> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>
> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
> will
> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in
> and
> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
> we're
> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait
> for
> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>
> What do you guys think?
Push. 'Better Cards' are more likely to be dominated in the event of a call.
I'd rather push here with 85o than A5o.
BTN
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 05:47:35
From: LKJ
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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I'd fold. You're in something of a hurry to make a move by this point,
but with four hands behind you, they know that your pushing range might
very well be any two (depending on your frequency of steal attempts up
to this point, which is a key factor). You would probably push out the
two behind you unless they woke up with a good hand, but the blinds
would probably make looser calls than that, assuming a typical texture.
Fold and hope you get dealt something marginally playable soon. It's
not ideal, but it wouldn't be a disaster to have to pay your blinds one
more time before simply having to pick a hand to take your stand
on....you'd still probably have the chips to get all-in heads up.
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Date: 29 Nov 13:32:28
From: CHarrison100
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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I would fold. With 52000 you have ~43 BB left so a 58off is now where near a
playable hand to me even in late position.
On Nov 29 2006 7:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>
> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200 with
> a
> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>
> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>
> What do you guys think?
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 04:57:41
From:
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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I think too many players make the mistake of open pushing in late
position to steal the blinds.
Yes it is easier to steal the blinds in late position when everyone has
folded to you...but if you're in late position, it also means you have
5 or 6 hands left to wake up with a reasonable hand before the blinds
hit you again.
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 18:48:34
From: Jim Anderson (thejim2020)
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
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Ok, I never get to this spot, blahblahblah. I push here.
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Date: 30 Nov 2006 10:27:02
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Wed, 29 Nov 06 12:45:34 GMT, Ben Frisch <bhfrisch@yahoo.com > wrote:
>
>This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
>left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200 with a
>75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
>button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
>folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>
>Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
>change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
>tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
>folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
>behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
>better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>
>What do you guys think?
>
Easy push.
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 16:26:00
From: A Man Beaten by Jacks
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Wed, 29 Nov 06 12:45:34 GMT, Ben Frisch <bhfrisch@yahoo.com > wrote:
>This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
>left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200 with a
>75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
>button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
>folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
>change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
>tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
>folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
>behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
>better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>What do you guys think?
It depends. Who are the players in the cutoff, button, and blinds? I'd like
a little better than 85, but if the players behind me are particularly tight, it
might be worth a push. If they're going to call loosely, it probably isn't.
If they're "normal," I think the push may be marginally +EV. But so would
pushing on the next hand, probably with something better.
How tight or loose the players behind you are could swing this to a definite
call or a definite fold, but knowing very little, I think it's probably
justifiable to play it either way.
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Date: 30 Nov 2006 07:29:11
From: KenP
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
Based on your title, I am sure a 2+2er will show up to correct you with
the proper information of it being 47.3: 48.7 and leaving a 4%
possibility of a tie.
ROFL
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Date: 29 Nov 20:52:17
From: Follow
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 29 2006 5:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>
> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200 with
> a
> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>
> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>
> What do you guys think?
Are there two players active behind him, or four? It seems a little unclear
reading the post. You say he's "in the hijack" which might clarify that
question, but I have no idea what "in the hijack" means.
If there are two players behind, push. If four, fold.
Follow :)
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Date: 30 Nov 2006 10:37:41
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Wed, 29 Nov 06 20:52:17 GMT, Follow <43086214@recpoker.com > wrote:
>
>
>
>On Nov 29 2006 5:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>
>>
>> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
>> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200 with
>> a
>> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
>> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
>> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>>
>> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
>> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
>> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
>> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
>> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
>> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>>
>> What do you guys think?
>
>Are there two players active behind him, or four? It seems a little unclear
>reading the post. You say he's "in the hijack" which might clarify that
>question, but I have no idea what "in the hijack" means.
>
>If there are two players behind, push. If four, fold.
>
The hijack is the guy who acts before the cutoff. You have four behind
you. You have this precisely the wrong way round. With two behind me,
I'm folding this. With four behind, I push. The blinds will call a
button steal with a much wider range than they will a hijack steal.
Also, if I pass this up, I have to go through *even more* players if I
push from an earlier position.
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
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Date: 30 Nov
From: Follow
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 29 2006 5:37 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
> The hijack is the guy who acts before the cutoff. You have four behind
> you. You have this precisely the wrong way round. With two behind me,
> I'm folding this. With four behind, I push. The blinds will call a
> button steal with a much wider range than they will a hijack steal.
> Also, if I pass this up, I have to go through *even more* players if I
> push from an earlier position.
>
> --
>
> Dr Zen
> King of the wild pixels.
> http://gollyg.blogspot.com/
I can see your point, but he says the blinds are tight. I want to push into
them, not into two more unknowns, especially when all of them have me double
covered. One of these 4 will look me up, even a tight player at the end will
look me up after 3 folds a lot of the time (particularly in online tournaments).
I don't care if the blinds think I'm stealing, I'll tap them on the shoulder and
tell them I'm stealing, the fact of the matter is that tight players are
generally not going to call half their stack with a marginally better hand.
They will call with solid values that they know they're ahead with which they
would have called with regardless of my position.
I prefer the odds of fighting two tighties than adding an extra 2 unknowns to
the mix.
Follow :)
_______________________________________________________________
Posted using RecPoker.com v2.2 - http://www.recpoker.com
|
| | | | |
Date: 30 Nov 2006 13:13:33
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Thu, 30 Nov 06 2:43:25 GMT, Follow <43086214@recpoker.com > wrote:
>
>
>
>On Nov 29 2006 5:37 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
>
>> The hijack is the guy who acts before the cutoff. You have four behind
>> you. You have this precisely the wrong way round. With two behind me,
>> I'm folding this. With four behind, I push. The blinds will call a
>> button steal with a much wider range than they will a hijack steal.
>> Also, if I pass this up, I have to go through *even more* players if I
>> push from an earlier position.
>>
>> --
>>
>> Dr Zen
>> King of the wild pixels.
>> http://gollyg.blogspot.com/
>
>I can see your point, but he says the blinds are tight.
He said they had been tight before the bubble.
> I want to push into
>them, not into two more unknowns, especially when all of them have me double
>covered.
Yes, and they're all aware of that! That's the point.
> One of these 4 will look me up, even a tight player at the end will
>look me up after 3 folds a lot of the time (particularly in online tournaments).
>
No, they won't. They'll think you more likely have a hand because you
pushed from the hijack. They won't want to lose half their stack and
get stuck in the dead zone.
>I don't care if the blinds think I'm stealing, I'll tap them on the shoulder and
>tell them I'm stealing, the fact of the matter is that tight players are
>generally not going to call half their stack with a marginally better hand.
But you think they will if you push from the hijack! Do you see? You
think they are more likely to call what is more likely to be a better
hand. Why?
>They will call with solid values that they know they're ahead with which they
>would have called with regardless of my position.
No, I think you are wrong.
Many more players will steal with many more hands from the button.
Everyone knows that.
>I prefer the odds of fighting two tighties than adding an extra 2 unknowns to
>the mix.
I understand why you think that but I find that steals from the button
are much more likely to get called than steals from earlier.
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
|
| |
Date: 30 Nov 2006 06:42:52
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
with a
> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>
> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>
> What do you guys think?
Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to get
past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
have to fold.
---
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com
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| | |
Date: 30 Nov 2006 10:13:23
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 30 2006 7:42 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>
> > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players
are
> > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
> with a
> > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> >
> > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
will
> > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in
and
> > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
we're
> > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait
for
> > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> >
> > What do you guys think?
>
> Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
> That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
> tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to get
> past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
> in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
> have to fold.
I disagree with your assessment that any Ace open raises.
Fell
--
Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
-------
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| | | |
Date: 30 Nov 2006 10:18:48
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 30 2006 10:13 AM, FellKnight wrote:
> On Nov 30 2006 7:42 AM, brewmaster wrote:
>
> > On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
> >
> > > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players
> are
> > > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
> > with a
> > > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
cut-off,
> > > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
It's
> > > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> > >
> > > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
> will
> > > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> > > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in
> and
> > > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
> we're
> > > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait
> for
> > > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> > >
> > > What do you guys think?
> >
> > Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
> > That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
> > tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to get
> > past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
> > in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
> > have to fold.
>
> I disagree with your assessment that any Ace open raises.
>
Really? With 17 left after the bubble in one of those $20 180 person
tourneys? Any ace AT LEAST limps in there. I will open raise, maybe even
open push, with any ace there. I really think you can reasonably rule out
any of the folders having an ace, and the likelihood of running into one
is higher.
Why don't you think an ace open raises there? Would you if you had one?
Remember, you have to move up 8 more positions to make any extra money,
and based on experience I'm guessing the blinds are like 200/400 or
300/600 here.
> Fell
> --
> Website: www.fellknight.com
> Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
----
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|
| | | | |
Date: 30 Nov 2006 10:44:48
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 30 2006 11:18 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> On Nov 30 2006 10:13 AM, FellKnight wrote:
>
> > On Nov 30 2006 7:42 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> >
> > > On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
> > >
> > > > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17
players
> > are
> > > > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are
600/1200
> > > with a
> > > > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
> cut-off,
> > > > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
> It's
> > > > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> > > >
> > > > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
> > will
> > > > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the
Multi-table
> > > > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all
in
> > and
> > > > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
> > we're
> > > > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to
wait
> > for
> > > > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> > > >
> > > > What do you guys think?
> > >
> > > Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
> > > That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
> > > tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to
get
> > > past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
> > > in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
> > > have to fold.
> >
> > I disagree with your assessment that any Ace open raises.
> >
>
> Really? With 17 left after the bubble in one of those $20 180 person
> tourneys? Any ace AT LEAST limps in there. I will open raise, maybe even
> open push, with any ace there. I really think you can reasonably rule out
> any of the folders having an ace, and the likelihood of running into one
> is higher.
>
> Why don't you think an ace open raises there? Would you if you had one?
> Remember, you have to move up 8 more positions to make any extra money,
> and based on experience I'm guessing the blinds are like 200/400 or
> 300/600 here.
Because a lot on the donks have busted out. People are looking toward the
final table now.
Even donks usually know that Ax is not a good opener in EP. Now, I agree
than any AT or better would have open raised, so the chances of running
into an ace are *slightly* higher, but not significantly so. And no, I
would not open raise Ax there.
Fell
--
Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
________________________________________________________________________
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| | | | | |
Date: 01 Dec 2006 09:04:46
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 10:44:48 -0800, "FellKnight"
<jordandevenport@hotmail.com > wrote:
>On Nov 30 2006 11:18 AM, brewmaster wrote:
>
>> On Nov 30 2006 10:13 AM, FellKnight wrote:
>>
>> > On Nov 30 2006 7:42 AM, brewmaster wrote:
>> >
>> > > On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>> > >
>> > > > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17
>players
>> > are
>> > > > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are
>600/1200
>> > > with a
>> > > > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
>> cut-off,
>> > > > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
>> It's
>> > > > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>> > > >
>> > > > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
>> > will
>> > > > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the
>Multi-table
>> > > > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all
>in
>> > and
>> > > > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
>> > we're
>> > > > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to
>wait
>> > for
>> > > > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>> > > >
>> > > > What do you guys think?
>> > >
>> > > Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
>> > > That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
>> > > tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to
>get
>> > > past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
>> > > in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
>> > > have to fold.
>> >
>> > I disagree with your assessment that any Ace open raises.
>> >
>>
>> Really? With 17 left after the bubble in one of those $20 180 person
>> tourneys? Any ace AT LEAST limps in there. I will open raise, maybe even
>> open push, with any ace there. I really think you can reasonably rule out
>> any of the folders having an ace, and the likelihood of running into one
>> is higher.
>>
>> Why don't you think an ace open raises there? Would you if you had one?
>> Remember, you have to move up 8 more positions to make any extra money,
>> and based on experience I'm guessing the blinds are like 200/400 or
>> 300/600 here.
>
>Because a lot on the donks have busted out. People are looking toward the
>final table now.
>
>Even donks usually know that Ax is not a good opener in EP. Now, I agree
>than any AT or better would have open raised, so the chances of running
>into an ace are *slightly* higher, but not significantly so. And no, I
>would not open raise Ax there.
With an M of 2.5 you would not openpush Ax? Jeez man, I would. I know
its downsides but I'm basically pushing any two from this spot anyway,
so I'm delighted to at least have a high card.
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
|
| | | | | | |
Date: 30 Nov 2006 15:15:29
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 30 2006 3:04 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 10:44:48 -0800, "FellKnight"
> <jordandevenport@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> >On Nov 30 2006 11:18 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> >
> >> On Nov 30 2006 10:13 AM, FellKnight wrote:
> >>
> >> > On Nov 30 2006 7:42 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> >> >
> >> > > On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
> >> > >
> >> > > > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17
> >players
> >> > are
> >> > > > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are
> >600/1200
> >> > > with a
> >> > > > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
> >> cut-off,
> >> > > > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
> >> It's
> >> > > > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> >> > > >
> >> > > > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if
that
> >> > will
> >> > > > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the
> >Multi-table
> >> > > > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing
all
> >in
> >> > and
> >> > > > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us,
if
> >> > we're
> >> > > > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to
> >wait
> >> > for
> >> > > > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> >> > > >
> >> > > > What do you guys think?
> >> > >
> >> > > Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to
you.
> >> > > That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this
particular
> >> > > tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to
> >get
> >> > > past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an
ace
> >> > > in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say
you
> >> > > have to fold.
> >> >
> >> > I disagree with your assessment that any Ace open raises.
> >> >
> >>
> >> Really? With 17 left after the bubble in one of those $20 180 person
> >> tourneys? Any ace AT LEAST limps in there. I will open raise, maybe even
> >> open push, with any ace there. I really think you can reasonably rule out
> >> any of the folders having an ace, and the likelihood of running into one
> >> is higher.
> >>
> >> Why don't you think an ace open raises there? Would you if you had one?
> >> Remember, you have to move up 8 more positions to make any extra money,
> >> and based on experience I'm guessing the blinds are like 200/400 or
> >> 300/600 here.
> >
> >Because a lot on the donks have busted out. People are looking toward the
> >final table now.
> >
> >Even donks usually know that Ax is not a good opener in EP. Now, I agree
> >than any AT or better would have open raised, so the chances of running
> >into an ace are *slightly* higher, but not significantly so. And no, I
> >would not open raise Ax there.
>
> With an M of 2.5 you would not openpush Ax? Jeez man, I would. I know
> its downsides but I'm basically pushing any two from this spot anyway,
> so I'm delighted to at least have a high card.
>
No Dr. Z, I was saying that any ace before you would not have folded but
would have open-raised, and Fell said that if he had an ace he would not
have. You are still in your position with 85. I was saying that since it
folded around to you at this stage of tourney (17 left, money doesn't go
up until FT) the likelihood is that nobody had an ace in EP or MP and that
raises the chance of an someone having one in LP or the blinds, and they
WILL call your push with an ace.
Fell absolutely would have pushed in the OPs position with any ace
(probably any king queen or jack also).
> --
>
> Dr Zen
> King of the wild pixels.
> http://gollyg.blogspot.com
_______________________________________________________________________
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| | | | | | | |
Date: 01 Dec 2006 11:48:51
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:15:29 -0800, "brewmaster"
<brewmaster@brewcam.com > wrote:
>On Nov 30 2006 3:04 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 10:44:48 -0800, "FellKnight"
>> <jordandevenport@hotmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> >On Nov 30 2006 11:18 AM, brewmaster wrote:
>> >
>> >> On Nov 30 2006 10:13 AM, FellKnight wrote:
>> >>
>> >> > On Nov 30 2006 7:42 AM, brewmaster wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> > > On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>> >> > >
>> >> > > > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17
>> >players
>> >> > are
>> >> > > > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are
>> >600/1200
>> >> > > with a
>> >> > > > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
>> >> cut-off,
>> >> > > > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
>
>> >> It's
>> >> > > > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>> >> > > >
>> >> > > > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if
>that
>> >> > will
>> >> > > > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the
>> >Multi-table
>> >> > > > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing
>all
>> >in
>> >> > and
>> >> > > > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us,
>if
>> >> > we're
>> >> > > > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to
>> >wait
>> >> > for
>> >> > > > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>> >> > > >
>> >> > > > What do you guys think?
>> >> > >
>> >> > > Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to
>you.
>> >> > > That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this
>particular
>> >> > > tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to
>> >get
>> >> > > past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an
>ace
>> >> > > in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say
>you
>> >> > > have to fold.
>> >> >
>> >> > I disagree with your assessment that any Ace open raises.
>> >> >
>> >>
>> >> Really? With 17 left after the bubble in one of those $20 180 person
>> >> tourneys? Any ace AT LEAST limps in there. I will open raise, maybe even
>> >> open push, with any ace there. I really think you can reasonably rule out
>> >> any of the folders having an ace, and the likelihood of running into one
>> >> is higher.
>> >>
>> >> Why don't you think an ace open raises there? Would you if you had one?
>> >> Remember, you have to move up 8 more positions to make any extra money,
>> >> and based on experience I'm guessing the blinds are like 200/400 or
>> >> 300/600 here.
>> >
>> >Because a lot on the donks have busted out. People are looking toward the
>> >final table now.
>> >
>> >Even donks usually know that Ax is not a good opener in EP. Now, I agree
>> >than any AT or better would have open raised, so the chances of running
>> >into an ace are *slightly* higher, but not significantly so. And no, I
>> >would not open raise Ax there.
>>
>> With an M of 2.5 you would not openpush Ax? Jeez man, I would. I know
>> its downsides but I'm basically pushing any two from this spot anyway,
>> so I'm delighted to at least have a high card.
>>
>
>No Dr. Z, I was saying that any ace before you would not have folded but
>would have open-raised, and Fell said that if he had an ace he would not
>have.
Ah okay. Now I'm following you.
> You are still in your position with 85. I was saying that since it
>folded around to you at this stage of tourney (17 left, money doesn't go
>up until FT) the likelihood is that nobody had an ace in EP or MP and that
>raises the chance of an someone having one in LP or the blinds, and they
>WILL call your push with an ace.
>
Yes, the likelihood is a bit higher.
>Fell absolutely would have pushed in the OPs position with any ace
>(probably any king queen or jack also).
In this spot, I'm pushing with any two. I think I'm just early enough
to look like I might have a hand and just late enough not to have too
many players to go through.
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
|
| | | | | | | | |
Date: 30 Nov 2006 18:15:37
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 30 2006 5:48 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:15:29 -0800, "brewmaster"
> <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote:
>
> >On Nov 30 2006 3:04 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
> >
> >> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 10:44:48 -0800, "FellKnight"
> >> <jordandevenport@hotmail.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> >On Nov 30 2006 11:18 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> >> >
> >> >> On Nov 30 2006 10:13 AM, FellKnight wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> > On Nov 30 2006 7:42 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> >> >> >
> >> >> > > On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17
> >> >players
> >> >> > are
> >> >> > > > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are
> >> >600/1200
> >> >> > > with a
> >> >> > > > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
> >> >> cut-off,
> >> >> > > > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little
less.
> >
> >> >> It's
> >> >> > > > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> >> >> > > >
> >> >> > > > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know
if
> >that
> >> >> > will
> >> >> > > > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the
> >> >Multi-table
> >> >> > > > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between
pusing
> >all
> >> >in
> >> >> > and
> >> >> > > > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to
us,
> >if
> >> >> > we're
> >> >> > > > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say
to
> >> >wait
> >> >> > for
> >> >> > > > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> >> >> > > >
> >> >> > > > What do you guys think?
> >> >> > >
> >> >> > > Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to
> >you.
> >> >> > > That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this
> >particular
> >> >> > > tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4
people to
> >> >get
> >> >> > > past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of
an
> >ace
> >> >> > > in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still
say
> >you
> >> >> > > have to fold.
> >> >> >
> >> >> > I disagree with your assessment that any Ace open raises.
> >> >> >
> >> >>
> >> >> Really? With 17 left after the bubble in one of those $20 180 person
> >> >> tourneys? Any ace AT LEAST limps in there. I will open raise, maybe
even
> >> >> open push, with any ace there. I really think you can reasonably rule
out
> >> >> any of the folders having an ace, and the likelihood of running into
one
> >> >> is higher.
> >> >>
> >> >> Why don't you think an ace open raises there? Would you if you had
one?
> >> >> Remember, you have to move up 8 more positions to make any extra money,
> >> >> and based on experience I'm guessing the blinds are like 200/400 or
> >> >> 300/600 here.
> >> >
> >> >Because a lot on the donks have busted out. People are looking toward
the
> >> >final table now.
> >> >
> >> >Even donks usually know that Ax is not a good opener in EP. Now, I agree
> >> >than any AT or better would have open raised, so the chances of running
> >> >into an ace are *slightly* higher, but not significantly so. And no, I
> >> >would not open raise Ax there.
> >>
> >> With an M of 2.5 you would not openpush Ax? Jeez man, I would. I know
> >> its downsides but I'm basically pushing any two from this spot anyway,
> >> so I'm delighted to at least have a high card.
> >>
> >
> >No Dr. Z, I was saying that any ace before you would not have folded but
> >would have open-raised, and Fell said that if he had an ace he would not
> >have.
>
> Ah okay. Now I'm following you.
>
> > You are still in your position with 85. I was saying that since it
> >folded around to you at this stage of tourney (17 left, money doesn't go
> >up until FT) the likelihood is that nobody had an ace in EP or MP and that
> >raises the chance of an someone having one in LP or the blinds, and they
> >WILL call your push with an ace.
> >
>
> Yes, the likelihood is a bit higher.
>
> >Fell absolutely would have pushed in the OPs position with any ace
> >(probably any king queen or jack also).
>
> In this spot, I'm pushing with any two. I think I'm just early enough
> to look like I might have a hand and just late enough not to have too
> many players to go through.
That's fine. I might as well (probably not). Just so you don't get mad
if you push and get called and lose, because that is the greatest
possibility here.
>
> --
>
> Dr Zen
> King of the wild pixels.
> http://gollyg.blogspot.com
________________________________________________________________________
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Date: 01 Dec 2006 12:37:46
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 18:15:37 -0800, "brewmaster"
<brewmaster@brewcam.com > wrote:
>On Nov 30 2006 5:48 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:15:29 -0800, "brewmaster"
>> <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote:
>>
>> >On Nov 30 2006 3:04 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
>> >
>> >> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 10:44:48 -0800, "FellKnight"
>> >> <jordandevenport@hotmail.com> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> >On Nov 30 2006 11:18 AM, brewmaster wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> >> On Nov 30 2006 10:13 AM, FellKnight wrote:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> > On Nov 30 2006 7:42 AM, brewmaster wrote:
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > > On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>> >> >> > >
>> >> >> > > > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17
>> >> >players
>> >> >> > are
>> >> >> > > > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are
>> >> >600/1200
>> >> >> > > with a
>> >> >> > > > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
>> >> >> cut-off,
>> >> >> > > > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little
>less.
>> >
>> >> >> It's
>> >> >> > > > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>> >> >> > > >
>> >> >> > > > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know
>if
>> >that
>> >> >> > will
>> >> >> > > > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the
>> >> >Multi-table
>> >> >> > > > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between
>pusing
>> >all
>> >> >in
>> >> >> > and
>> >> >> > > > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to
>us,
>> >if
>> >> >> > we're
>> >> >> > > > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say
>to
>> >> >wait
>> >> >> > for
>> >> >> > > > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>> >> >> > > >
>> >> >> > > > What do you guys think?
>> >> >> > >
>> >> >> > > Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to
>> >you.
>> >> >> > > That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this
>> >particular
>> >> >> > > tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4
>people to
>> >> >get
>> >> >> > > past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of
>an
>> >ace
>> >> >> > > in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still
>say
>> >you
>> >> >> > > have to fold.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > I disagree with your assessment that any Ace open raises.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Really? With 17 left after the bubble in one of those $20 180 person
>> >> >> tourneys? Any ace AT LEAST limps in there. I will open raise, maybe
>even
>> >> >> open push, with any ace there. I really think you can reasonably rule
>out
>> >> >> any of the folders having an ace, and the likelihood of running into
>one
>> >> >> is higher.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Why don't you think an ace open raises there? Would you if you had
>one?
>> >> >> Remember, you have to move up 8 more positions to make any extra money,
>> >> >> and based on experience I'm guessing the blinds are like 200/400 or
>> >> >> 300/600 here.
>> >> >
>> >> >Because a lot on the donks have busted out. People are looking toward
>the
>> >> >final table now.
>> >> >
>> >> >Even donks usually know that Ax is not a good opener in EP. Now, I agree
>> >> >than any AT or better would have open raised, so the chances of running
>> >> >into an ace are *slightly* higher, but not significantly so. And no, I
>> >> >would not open raise Ax there.
>> >>
>> >> With an M of 2.5 you would not openpush Ax? Jeez man, I would. I know
>> >> its downsides but I'm basically pushing any two from this spot anyway,
>> >> so I'm delighted to at least have a high card.
>> >>
>> >
>> >No Dr. Z, I was saying that any ace before you would not have folded but
>> >would have open-raised, and Fell said that if he had an ace he would not
>> >have.
>>
>> Ah okay. Now I'm following you.
>>
>> > You are still in your position with 85. I was saying that since it
>> >folded around to you at this stage of tourney (17 left, money doesn't go
>> >up until FT) the likelihood is that nobody had an ace in EP or MP and that
>> >raises the chance of an someone having one in LP or the blinds, and they
>> >WILL call your push with an ace.
>> >
>>
>> Yes, the likelihood is a bit higher.
>>
>> >Fell absolutely would have pushed in the OPs position with any ace
>> >(probably any king queen or jack also).
>>
>> In this spot, I'm pushing with any two. I think I'm just early enough
>> to look like I might have a hand and just late enough not to have too
>> many players to go through.
>
>That's fine. I might as well (probably not). Just so you don't get mad
>if you push and get called and lose, because that is the greatest
>possibility here.
>
I ask myself though am I more or less likely to lose if I call a push
from the BB? At least here I have the advantage of some fold equity.
There I'm just calling and praying. I think that whatever I do, I'm
going to need a bit of luck to go up in the money, don't you?
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Date: 01 Dec 2006 08:51:34
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
Hey, quick favor...could you guys take the 10 seconds or so it takes to
trim the extra lines of previous messages out of your replies? It's cool
to quote a previous message, but there's no need to keep quoting the same
messages over and over again just to leave a 2 line reply.
Thanks much.
Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com
_____________________________________________________________________
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| | | | | | | |
Date: 02 Dec 2006 16:25:04
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 30 2006 4:15 PM, brewmaster wrote:
> No Dr. Z, I was saying that any ace before you would not have folded but
> would have open-raised, and Fell said that if he had an ace he would not
> have. You are still in your position with 85. I was saying that since it
> folded around to you at this stage of tourney (17 left, money doesn't go
> up until FT) the likelihood is that nobody had an ace in EP or MP and that
> raises the chance of an someone having one in LP or the blinds, and they
> WILL call your push with an ace.
>
> Fell absolutely would have pushed in the OPs position with any ace
> (probably any king queen or jack also).
Yes, in the Hijack, Ax is now finally looking good.
Fell
--
Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
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Date: 02 Dec 2006 19:53:19
From: A Man Beaten by Jacks
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Sat, 02 Dec 2006 16:25:04 -0800, "FellKnight" <jordandevenport@hotmail.com >
wrote:
>On Nov 30 2006 4:15 PM, brewmaster wrote:
>> No Dr. Z, I was saying that any ace before you would not have folded but
>> would have open-raised, and Fell said that if he had an ace he would not
>> have. You are still in your position with 85. I was saying that since it
>> folded around to you at this stage of tourney (17 left, money doesn't go
>> up until FT) the likelihood is that nobody had an ace in EP or MP and that
>> raises the chance of an someone having one in LP or the blinds, and they
>> WILL call your push with an ace.
>> Fell absolutely would have pushed in the OPs position with any ace
>> (probably any king queen or jack also).
>Yes, in the Hijack, Ax is now finally looking good.
Since when is that seat called the hijack anyway? I never heard
that one. Is stealing from the hijack the new black?
|
| | | | | | | | | |
Date: 02 Dec 2006 18:24:36
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Dec 2 2006 5:53 PM, A Man Beaten by Jacks wrote:
> On Sat, 02 Dec 2006 16:25:04 -0800, "FellKnight"
<jordandevenport@hotmail.com >
> wrote:
>
> >On Nov 30 2006 4:15 PM, brewmaster wrote:
>
> >> No Dr. Z, I was saying that any ace before you would not have folded but
> >> would have open-raised, and Fell said that if he had an ace he would not
> >> have. You are still in your position with 85. I was saying that since it
> >> folded around to you at this stage of tourney (17 left, money doesn't go
> >> up until FT) the likelihood is that nobody had an ace in EP or MP and that
> >> raises the chance of an someone having one in LP or the blinds, and they
> >> WILL call your push with an ace.
>
> >> Fell absolutely would have pushed in the OPs position with any ace
> >> (probably any king queen or jack also).
>
> >Yes, in the Hijack, Ax is now finally looking good.
>
> Since when is that seat called the hijack anyway? I never heard
> that one. Is stealing from the hijack the new black?
I've heard it several times. Mostly from P5's.
Fell
--
Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
-------
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| | | | | | |
Date: 02 Dec 2006 16:23:00
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 30 2006 4:04 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 10:44:48 -0800, "FellKnight"
> <jordandevenport@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> >On Nov 30 2006 11:18 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> >
> >> On Nov 30 2006 10:13 AM, FellKnight wrote:
> >>
> >> > On Nov 30 2006 7:42 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> >> >
> >> > > On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
> >> > >
> >> > > > This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17
> >players
> >> > are
> >> > > > left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are
> >600/1200
> >> > > with a
> >> > > > 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
> >> cut-off,
> >> > > > button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
> >> It's
> >> > > > folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> >> > > >
> >> > > > Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if
that
> >> > will
> >> > > > change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the
> >Multi-table
> >> > > > tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing
all
> >in
> >> > and
> >> > > > folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us,
if
> >> > we're
> >> > > > behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to
> >wait
> >> > for
> >> > > > better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> >> > > >
> >> > > > What do you guys think?
> >> > >
> >> > > Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to
you.
> >> > > That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this
particular
> >> > > tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to
> >get
> >> > > past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an
ace
> >> > > in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say
you
> >> > > have to fold.
> >> >
> >> > I disagree with your assessment that any Ace open raises.
> >> >
> >>
> >> Really? With 17 left after the bubble in one of those $20 180 person
> >> tourneys? Any ace AT LEAST limps in there. I will open raise, maybe even
> >> open push, with any ace there. I really think you can reasonably rule out
> >> any of the folders having an ace, and the likelihood of running into one
> >> is higher.
> >>
> >> Why don't you think an ace open raises there? Would you if you had one?
> >> Remember, you have to move up 8 more positions to make any extra money,
> >> and based on experience I'm guessing the blinds are like 200/400 or
> >> 300/600 here.
> >
> >Because a lot on the donks have busted out. People are looking toward the
> >final table now.
> >
> >Even donks usually know that Ax is not a good opener in EP. Now, I agree
> >than any AT or better would have open raised, so the chances of running
> >into an ace are *slightly* higher, but not significantly so. And no, I
> >would not open raise Ax there.
>
> With an M of 2.5 you would not openpush Ax? Jeez man, I would. I know
> its downsides but I'm basically pushing any two from this spot anyway,
> so I'm delighted to at least have a high card.
Good for you. I fold Ax with a 2.5 M in EP.
Fell
--
Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
-----
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|
| | |
Date: 01 Dec 2006 09:02:51
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 06:42:52 -0800, "brewmaster"
<brewmaster@brewcam.com > wrote:
>On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>
>> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
>> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
>with a
>> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
>> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
>> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>>
>> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
>> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
>> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
>> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
>> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
>> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>>
>> What do you guys think?
>
>Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
>That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
>tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to get
>past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
>in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
>have to fold.
It also means *you* are more likely to have an ace!
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
|
| | | |
Date: 30 Nov 2006 15:16:39
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 30 2006 3:02 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 06:42:52 -0800, "brewmaster"
> <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote:
>
> >On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
> >
> >> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players
are
> >> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
> >with a
> >> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> >> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
It's
> >> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> >>
> >> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
will
> >> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> >> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in
and
> >> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
we're
> >> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait
for
> >> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> >>
> >> What do you guys think?
> >
> >Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
> >That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
> >tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to get
> >past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
> >in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
> >have to fold.
>
> It also means *you* are more likely to have an ace!
>
True. That is certainly what you want the last four players to think.
> --
>
> Dr Zen
> King of the wild pixels.
> http://gollyg.blogspot.com
_____________________________________________________________________
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| | | | |
Date: 01 Dec 2006 11:53:10
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:16:39 -0800, "brewmaster"
<brewmaster@brewcam.com > wrote:
>On Nov 30 2006 3:02 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 06:42:52 -0800, "brewmaster"
>> <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote:
>>
>> >On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>> >
>> >> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players
>are
>> >> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200
>> >with a
>> >> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
>> >> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
>It's
>> >> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>> >>
>> >> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
>will
>> >> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
>> >> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in
>and
>> >> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
>we're
>> >> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait
>for
>> >> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>> >>
>> >> What do you guys think?
>> >
>> >Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
>> >That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
>> >tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to get
>> >past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
>> >in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
>> >have to fold.
>>
>> It also means *you* are more likely to have an ace!
>>
>
>True. That is certainly what you want the last four players to think.
I'd like them to think that I have a hand of some sort because I'm
pushing from the hijack. It ups the risk but everyone surely knows
that you know that and your range will accordingly be smaller. If I
pass, I feel I really will need some cards if I want to get in before
the next blinds.
I can't fold here. I feel that if I do, chances are I'm stuck having
to call in the BB. Are my chances better calling with any two in the
BB than they are pushing with any two here?
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
|
| | | | | |
Date: 30 Nov 2006 18:16:35
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Nov 30 2006 5:53 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:16:39 -0800, "brewmaster"
> <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote:
>
> >On Nov 30 2006 3:02 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
> >
> >> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 06:42:52 -0800, "brewmaster"
> >> <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> >On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
> >> >
> >> >> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17
players
> >are
> >> >> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are
600/1200
> >> >with a
> >> >> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
cut-off,
> >> >> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
> >It's
> >> >> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
> >> >>
> >> >> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
> >will
> >> >> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the
Multi-table
> >> >> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all
in
> >and
> >> >> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
> >we're
> >> >> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to
wait
> >for
> >> >> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
> >> >>
> >> >> What do you guys think?
> >> >
> >> >Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
> >> >That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
> >> >tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to
get
> >> >past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
> >> >in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
> >> >have to fold.
> >>
> >> It also means *you* are more likely to have an ace!
> >>
> >
> >True. That is certainly what you want the last four players to think.
>
> I'd like them to think that I have a hand of some sort because I'm
> pushing from the hijack. It ups the risk but everyone surely knows
> that you know that and your range will accordingly be smaller. If I
> pass, I feel I really will need some cards if I want to get in before
> the next blinds.
>
> I can't fold here. I feel that if I do, chances are I'm stuck having
> to call in the BB. Are my chances better calling with any two in the
> BB than they are pushing with any two here?
You currently have 8 high, so, probably yes.
>
> --
>
> Dr Zen
> King of the wild pixels.
> http://gollyg.blogspot.com
_______________________________________________________________________
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| | | | | | |
Date: 01 Dec 2006 12:49:24
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 18:16:35 -0800, "brewmaster"
<brewmaster@brewcam.com > wrote:
>On Nov 30 2006 5:53 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:16:39 -0800, "brewmaster"
>> <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote:
>>
>> >On Nov 30 2006 3:02 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
>> >
>> >> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 06:42:52 -0800, "brewmaster"
>> >> <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> >On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> >> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17
>players
>> >are
>> >> >> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are
>600/1200
>> >> >with a
>> >> >> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
>cut-off,
>> >> >> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
>> >It's
>> >> >> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
>> >will
>> >> >> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the
>Multi-table
>> >> >> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all
>in
>> >and
>> >> >> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
>> >we're
>> >> >> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to
>wait
>> >for
>> >> >> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> What do you guys think?
>> >> >
>> >> >Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
>> >> >That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
>> >> >tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to
>get
>> >> >past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
>> >> >in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
>> >> >have to fold.
>> >>
>> >> It also means *you* are more likely to have an ace!
>> >>
>> >
>> >True. That is certainly what you want the last four players to think.
>>
>> I'd like them to think that I have a hand of some sort because I'm
>> pushing from the hijack. It ups the risk but everyone surely knows
>> that you know that and your range will accordingly be smaller. If I
>> pass, I feel I really will need some cards if I want to get in before
>> the next blinds.
>>
>> I can't fold here. I feel that if I do, chances are I'm stuck having
>> to call in the BB. Are my chances better calling with any two in the
>> BB than they are pushing with any two here?
>
>You currently have 8 high, so, probably yes.
But here I'm betting, not calling. And I do not know that someone
likes his hand enough to put his whole stack in. I understand why you
want to fold and if I had another M, I expect I'd fold too. But I'm in
with any two in this spot. I would already have resolved to do it if
it's folded to me. I am going to need to get lucky somewhere in here,
and I think I'm helping my luck along by at least making the bet and
giving the others the opportunity to fold. If it's folded around to
the BB and he has 92, well, it's a big call for him and I'm pretty
live even then. But if I'm sitting in the BB with 92 next orbit...
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
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Date: 01 Dec 2006 12:49:09
From: Dr Zen
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 18:16:35 -0800, "brewmaster"
<brewmaster@brewcam.com > wrote:
>On Nov 30 2006 5:53 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:16:39 -0800, "brewmaster"
>> <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote:
>>
>> >On Nov 30 2006 3:02 PM, Dr Zen wrote:
>> >
>> >> On Thu, 30 Nov 2006 06:42:52 -0800, "brewmaster"
>> >> <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> >On Nov 29 2006 4:45 AM, Ben Frisch wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> >> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17
>players
>> >are
>> >> >> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are
>600/1200
>> >> >with a
>> >> >> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The
>cut-off,
>> >> >> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less.
>> >It's
>> >> >> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that
>> >will
>> >> >> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the
>Multi-table
>> >> >> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all
>in
>> >and
>> >> >> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if
>> >we're
>> >> >> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to
>wait
>> >for
>> >> >> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> What do you guys think?
>> >> >
>> >> >Something nobody else has mentioned yet. Everybody has folded to you.
>> >> >That almost certainly means none of them had an ace. In this particular
>> >> >tourney, and at this stage, any ace open raises. You have 4 people to
>get
>> >> >past. The lack of ace in any EP means a much higher likelihood of an ace
>> >> >in the hand of one of these four, and his ace will call. I still say you
>> >> >have to fold.
>> >>
>> >> It also means *you* are more likely to have an ace!
>> >>
>> >
>> >True. That is certainly what you want the last four players to think.
>>
>> I'd like them to think that I have a hand of some sort because I'm
>> pushing from the hijack. It ups the risk but everyone surely knows
>> that you know that and your range will accordingly be smaller. If I
>> pass, I feel I really will need some cards if I want to get in before
>> the next blinds.
>>
>> I can't fold here. I feel that if I do, chances are I'm stuck having
>> to call in the BB. Are my chances better calling with any two in the
>> BB than they are pushing with any two here?
>
>You currently have 8 high, so, probably yes.
>
My answer seems to have gone into the aether, so I apologise if I'm
repeating myself, but I am betting here, not calling. My chances are
probably going to be better of winning a showdown but my overall
chances are increased by being the guy doing the betting, not the one
doing the calling.
I understand folding here, and I would too with another M, but I can
see CO and button playing quite tightly, and that leaves the blinds.
If SB folds and BB holds 92, it's a tough call for him. If he holds
J3, which crushes me, a tough call. He is in worse shape than I
currently am if he calls and loses.
--
Dr Zen
King of the wild pixels.
http://gollyg.blogspot.com
|
| |
Date: 30 Nov 2006 06:31:03
From: Will in New Haven
Subject: Re: tourney hand has twoplustwo forum divided 50-50
|
Ben Frisch wrote:
> This is one of those $20, 180 person multi-table sit n goes. 17 players are
> left, so the "make the money" bubble has busted. The blinds are 600/1200 with a
> 75 ante. The player in question is in the hijack with 5.2k. The cut-off,
> button, and blinds all have him covered by double or a little less. It's
> folded to the player with 58 offsuit.
>
> Two players remaining to act have been tight, but we don't know if that will
> change now that the bubble just burst. On twoplustwo in the Multi-table
> tournament forum, posters are pretty evenly divided between pusing all in and
> folding. The pushers say we have fold equity, it was folded to us, if we're
> behind we might suck out about 1/3 of the time. The folders say to wait for
> better cards, that we're too likely to get called.
>
> What do you guys think?
I don't think you have much fold equity. Even with double your stack,
the guys in the blinds should SERIOUSLY consider that they can't afford
to fold. The way you describe it, the best M out there is around 4-5.
Somebody is going to realize that he has to play the hand. With no fold
equity, I would like to have a little better hand in terms of high
cards or connectivity or something. I fold.
Will in New Haven
--
>
> _______________________________________________________________
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