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Date: 12 Dec 2006 07:58:56
From: Ben
Subject: determining luck in pokertracker
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So I now have about 6 months of data (cash games and tournaments) in
pokertracker. Aside from going back and looking at how you busted out
of each individual tournament does anyone have a way of determining how
lucky or unlucky they have been?
I saw something on killinghand about cardrunners having some stat that
they use to determine how lucky your distribution of cards have been
but I'm more interested in finding out if I'm winning my fair share of
races and how I'm busting out.
Any suggestions are appreciated.
Ben
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 09:35:24
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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Ben wrote:
> So I now have about 6 months of data (cash games and tournaments) in
> pokertracker. Aside from going back and looking at how you busted out
> of each individual tournament does anyone have a way of determining how
> lucky or unlucky they have been?
That manual method wouldn't really do it. You never win the race when
you bust out. So pretty much everybody could conclude that he's
unlucky by looking at the hands he busted on.
You (or the software) could look at your equity at the moment of all of
your all-ins and compare that to chips won. That might mean something.
It's a complex question if there's still money yet to play, because
these decisions might be motivated by implied odds. But there's
clearly luck involved throughout the session that would escape
measurement. Frankly, people tend to focus too much on the way on the
hands that eliminate them even if that's not where their mistakes are
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 09:25:44
From: Will in New Haven
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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Ben wrote:
> pausem wrote:
> > > Not all that much, I think. Since one should never be satisfied with
> > > ones game and should always be trying to improve, I don't think that
> > > this kind of consolation is worth seeking. A guy at Foxwods caught a
> > > fourth nine on the river to beat my Aces full in a limit game and said
> > > as he scooped up the chips, "play better."
> > >
> > > He was being a prick but I managed to laugh about it and the advice is
> > > good in general.
> > >
> > > Will in New Haven
> > >
> >
> > But if you know you are running bad because of bad luck then you know
> > it should eventually turnaround.
> >
> > If you are losing AND are also "lucky" then you must be doing something
> > wrong.
> >
> > You can improve your game all you want but sometimes it's better to be
> > lucky than good
>
> I see both points and I do think that it is good to know if you've been
> getting lucky or not. Say for instance I've been too willing to get
> into a coin flip situation, I need a way to see all those coin flip
> situations and see if the reason that I've won the past three sng's is
> because I'm winning every coin flip that I'm in and in reality I
> shouldn't be taking as many coinflips.
>
> I know you can't change luck and you should always want to improve, but
> if you think you are doing something right but in reality you are just
> getting lucky, you might be looking to improve the wrong skill.
If you can break it down by _situation_ you might be able to make this
useful. I don't know how well these online "trackers" can do that but
it might be a good way to find out what is going on in certain
situations. Short-term, you are probably, or at least very possibly,
going to see some really skewed results on race situations.
In an admittedly small number of recent tournament situations, I have
never won _either_ end of AK vs. JJ. I am sure I have won enough other
race situations to make that simply an amusing footnote but there it
is. I wouldn't have been all-in pre-flop with either hand if it weren't
a situation where I needed to pick up chips because my stack was
getting low or, conversely, a situation where my opponent had a small
stack that couldn't hurt me.
Because luck is not predictive, I won't let this data affect my play of
either hand, even when I suspect this matchup. However, it is wierd.
Will in New Haven
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 09:10:20
From: Ben
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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pausem wrote:
> > Not all that much, I think. Since one should never be satisfied with
> > ones game and should always be trying to improve, I don't think that
> > this kind of consolation is worth seeking. A guy at Foxwods caught a
> > fourth nine on the river to beat my Aces full in a limit game and said
> > as he scooped up the chips, "play better."
> >
> > He was being a prick but I managed to laugh about it and the advice is
> > good in general.
> >
> > Will in New Haven
> >
>
> But if you know you are running bad because of bad luck then you know
> it should eventually turnaround.
>
> If you are losing AND are also "lucky" then you must be doing something
> wrong.
>
> You can improve your game all you want but sometimes it's better to be
> lucky than good
I see both points and I do think that it is good to know if you've been
getting lucky or not. Say for instance I've been too willing to get
into a coin flip situation, I need a way to see all those coin flip
situations and see if the reason that I've won the past three sng's is
because I'm winning every coin flip that I'm in and in reality I
shouldn't be taking as many coinflips.
I know you can't change luck and you should always want to improve, but
if you think you are doing something right but in reality you are just
getting lucky, you might be looking to improve the wrong skill.
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 09:00:49
From: pausem
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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> Not all that much, I think. Since one should never be satisfied with
> ones game and should always be trying to improve, I don't think that
> this kind of consolation is worth seeking. A guy at Foxwods caught a
> fourth nine on the river to beat my Aces full in a limit game and said
> as he scooped up the chips, "play better."
>
> He was being a prick but I managed to laugh about it and the advice is
> good in general.
>
> Will in New Haven
>
But if you know you are running bad because of bad luck then you know
it should eventually turnaround.
If you are losing AND are also "lucky" then you must be doing something
wrong.
You can improve your game all you want but sometimes it's better to be
lucky than good
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 08:49:46
From: Will in New Haven
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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pausem wrote:
> > >
> > > Ben
> >
> > Think about things you can control.Try to make better decisions. Luck
> > is not predictive. If you have, as you would apparently like to
> > believe, been unlucky, there is no adjustment you can make for it.
> > Since luck is not predictive, you would be trying to adjust to _having
> > been unlucky_
> >
> > Will in New Haven
> >
> > --
>
> It helps to know that if you're going through a bad patch it is because
> you have been unlucky and not that you have been playing badly
Not all that much, I think. Since one should never be satisfied with
ones game and should always be trying to improve, I don't think that
this kind of consolation is worth seeking. A guy at Foxwods caught a
fourth nine on the river to beat my Aces full in a limit game and said
as he scooped up the chips, "play better."
He was being a prick but I managed to laugh about it and the advice is
good in general.
Will in New Haven
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Date: 14 Dec 2006 23:42:17
From: Omaha Chris
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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> A guy at Foxwods caught a
> fourth nine on the river to beat my Aces full in a limit game and said
> as he scooped up the chips, "play better."
No jackpot?
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 08:37:06
From: pausem
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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> >
> > Ben
>
> Think about things you can control.Try to make better decisions. Luck
> is not predictive. If you have, as you would apparently like to
> believe, been unlucky, there is no adjustment you can make for it.
> Since luck is not predictive, you would be trying to adjust to _having
> been unlucky_
>
> Will in New Haven
>
> --
It helps to know that if you're going through a bad patch it is because
you have been unlucky and not that you have been playing badly
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 08:11:30
From: Will in New Haven
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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Ben wrote:
> So I now have about 6 months of data (cash games and tournaments) in
> pokertracker. Aside from going back and looking at how you busted out
> of each individual tournament does anyone have a way of determining how
> lucky or unlucky they have been?
> I saw something on killinghand about cardrunners having some stat that
> they use to determine how lucky your distribution of cards have been
> but I'm more interested in finding out if I'm winning my fair share of
> races and how I'm busting out.
>
> Any suggestions are appreciated.
>
> Ben
Think about things you can control.Try to make better decisions. Luck
is not predictive. If you have, as you would apparently like to
believe, been unlucky, there is no adjustment you can make for it.
Since luck is not predictive, you would be trying to adjust to _having
been unlucky_
Will in New Haven
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 14:38:08
From: A Man Beaten by Jacks
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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On 12 Dec 2006 08:11:30 -0800, "Will in New Haven"
<bill.reich@taylorandfrancis.com > wrote:
>Ben wrote:
>> So I now have about 6 months of data (cash games and tournaments) in
>> pokertracker. Aside from going back and looking at how you busted out
>> of each individual tournament does anyone have a way of determining how
>> lucky or unlucky they have been?
>> I saw something on killinghand about cardrunners having some stat that
>> they use to determine how lucky your distribution of cards have been
>> but I'm more interested in finding out if I'm winning my fair share of
>> races and how I'm busting out.
>> Any suggestions are appreciated.
>> Ben
>Think about things you can control.Try to make better decisions. Luck
>is not predictive. If you have, as you would apparently like to
>believe, been unlucky, there is no adjustment you can make for it.
>Since luck is not predictive, you would be trying to adjust to _having
>been unlucky_
It might be useful to know if you have been lucky or unlucky. Not as
an excuse for poor play, but to avoid drawing unwarranted conclusions
from unrepresentative data. If you have been "unlucky" or "lucky" on some
collection of arbitrary measurements to an anomalous degree, you
shouldn't conclude you were playing especially well or especially poorly
to get the results you did over a certain run.
You'd probably be better off, though, just getting a larger sample, which
will flatten out unusual trends.
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 21:12:01
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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Ben wrote:
> finally, thank you for a reply that actually addresses poker tracker
Oh yeah, poker tracker doesn't do that.
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 17:54:01
From: Ben
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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ricklavoie39@hotmail.com wrote:
> Ben wrote:
> > So I now have about 6 months of data (cash games and tournaments) in
> > pokertracker. Aside from going back and looking at how you busted out
> > of each individual tournament does anyone have a way of determining how
> > lucky or unlucky they have been?
> > I saw something on killinghand about cardrunners having some stat that
> > they use to determine how lucky your distribution of cards have been
> > but I'm more interested in finding out if I'm winning my fair share of
> > races and how I'm busting out.
> >
> > Any suggestions are appreciated.
> >
> > Ben
>
> I think this article at 2+2 is one of the best on how to get the most
> out of Pokertracker.
>
> http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=4946669&fpart=1&PHPSESSID=
finally, thank you for a reply that actually addresses poker tracker
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 15:15:17
From: phlash74
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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On Dec 12, 9:00 am, "pausem" <paulsem...@gmail.com > wrote:
> > Not all that much, I think. Since one should never be satisfied with
> > ones game and should always be trying to improve, I don't think that
> > this kind of consolation is worth seeking. A guy at Foxwods caught a
> > fourth nine on the river to beat my Aces full in a limit game and said
> > as he scooped up the chips, "play better."
>
> > He was being a prick but I managed to laugh about it and the advice is
> > good in general.
>
> > Will in New Haven
> But if you know you are running bad because of bad luck then you know
> it should eventually turnaround.
Says who? The cards don't know whether you've won or lost your last 5
races. What you should know is whether you are making good decisions,
and ignoring the results of those decisions other than what they tell
you about your decision making process (for example if you lose a lot
of coinflips in tournaments, maybe you're overplaying hands that get
you into coinflip situations when you don't need to).
>
> If you are losing AND are also "lucky" then you must be doing something
> wrong.
>
> You can improve your game all you want but sometimes it's better to be
> lucky than good
Depends on your definition of luck. There are several different types
of luck associated with poker. There's luck involved in getting dealt
good starting hands, luck in making strong hands after the start, luck
in avoiding making a very strong but second-best hand (which usually is
expensive), and luck in outdrawing an opponent or avoiding getting
drawn out on. Among all these factors, you have some measure of
control in how you deal with them, but no control over their
occurrence. Everybody always bemoans their bad luck when their AA gets
sucked out on. No one ever complains about getting dealt aces in the
first place, especially when they hold up 80% of the time.
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 13:38:23
From:
Subject: Re: determining luck in pokertracker
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Ben wrote:
> So I now have about 6 months of data (cash games and tournaments) in
> pokertracker. Aside from going back and looking at how you busted out
> of each individual tournament does anyone have a way of determining how
> lucky or unlucky they have been?
> I saw something on killinghand about cardrunners having some stat that
> they use to determine how lucky your distribution of cards have been
> but I'm more interested in finding out if I'm winning my fair share of
> races and how I'm busting out.
>
> Any suggestions are appreciated.
>
> Ben
I think this article at 2+2 is one of the best on how to get the most
out of Pokertracker.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=ssplnlpoker&Number=4946669&fpart=1&PHPSESSID=
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