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Main
Date: 03 Dec 2006 20:24:53
From: Mark-T
Subject: analyze this action
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No limit Hold em
WPT Championship, Bellagio, 2006
Early stage of tourney
Blinds: $50, $100
MP: 5s, 6s
Pre-flop:
-------------
UTG: call
EP: $800
MP: call
.... all fold
Flop: Qs, 9s, 6h
---------
EP: $3000
MP: call
MP: "$3000 was a big bet for this guy, so I knew
he had an overpair."
Turn: 2s
---------
EP: check
MP: check
River: 4s
---------
EP: $5000
MP: call
Mark
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Date: 03 Dec 2006 21:04:00
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: analyze this action
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On Dec 3 2006 9:24 PM, Mark-T wrote:
> No limit Hold em
> WPT Championship, Bellagio, 2006
> Early stage of tourney
>
> Blinds: $50, $100
> MP: 5s, 6s
>
> Pre-flop:
> -------------
> UTG: call
> EP: $800
> MP: call
> ..... all fold
>
>
> Flop: Qs, 9s, 6h
> ---------
> EP: $3000
> MP: call
>
> MP: "$3000 was a big bet for this guy, so I knew
> he had an overpair."
Assuming he cannot lay down the overpair, I am ok with a call here. You
shouldn't need or want to flip a coin for your stack here.
> Turn: 2s
> ---------
> EP: check
> MP: check
Say WHAT?
In a contrived scenario, I could see checking here against a truly great
opponent who would muck to your flush, instead hoping to get a bet called
on a blank river, but against most people, especially knowing that there
is a 50% chance he has a live spade against you, you HAVE to bet here.
> River: 4s
> ---------
> EP: $5000
> MP: call
Ugh. In a vacuum, if he bets this way with any AA or KK (whether with a
spade or not), you are correct to call, but he is far more likely to check
an blank overpair hoping that it will win a showdown, or to make a smaller
stopper bet. $5000 screams value to me. I expect to be shown AsAx and
lose the pot here.
>
> Mark
Fell
--
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Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
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Date: 04 Dec 2006 10:35:13
From: CincinnatiKid
Subject: Re: analyze this action
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On Dec 4 2006 12:04 AM, FellKnight wrote:
> On Dec 3 2006 9:24 PM, Mark-T wrote:
>
> > No limit Hold em
> > WPT Championship, Bellagio, 2006
> > Early stage of tourney
> >
> > Blinds: $50, $100
> > MP: 5s, 6s
> >
> > Pre-flop:
> > -------------
> > UTG: call
> > EP: $800
> > MP: call
> > ..... all fold
> >
> >
> > Flop: Qs, 9s, 6h
> > ---------
> > EP: $3000
> > MP: call
> >
> > MP: "$3000 was a big bet for this guy, so I knew
> > he had an overpair."
>
> Assuming he cannot lay down the overpair, I am ok with a call here. You
> shouldn't need or want to flip a coin for your stack here.
Why shouldn't we want to flip a coin here? It's early in the tourney and
if we trust our read of AA/KK then I see no other play here but to pop it
up to about $15k. After our reraise he can't just call...he's gonna shove
or fold. Lets apply the pressure and try and take the pot right here
BEFORE we make our hand.
> > Turn: 2s
> > ---------
> > EP: check
> > MP: check
>
> Say WHAT?
>
> In a contrived scenario, I could see checking here against a truly great
> opponent who would muck to your flush, instead hoping to get a bet called
> on a blank river, but against most people, especially knowing that there
> is a 50% chance he has a live spade against you, you HAVE to bet here.
Any scenario that involves a check here is certainly a convaluted one.
Hell, its flat out wrong 99.9 % of the time.
> > River: 4s
> > ---------
> > EP: $5000
> > MP: call
>
> Ugh. In a vacuum, if he bets this way with any AA or KK (whether with a
> spade or not), you are correct to call, but he is far more likely to check
> an blank overpair hoping that it will win a showdown, or to make a smaller
> stopper bet. $5000 screams value to me. I expect to be shown AsAx and
> lose the pot here.
>
The play of this hand was Uber weak tight after the flop. We trapped
ourselves here. Nice.
> > Mark
>
> Fell
> --
> Website: www.fellknight.com
> Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
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Date: 04 Dec 2006 19:43:47
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: analyze this action
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On Dec 4 2006 11:35 AM, CincinnatiKid wrote:
> On Dec 4 2006 12:04 AM, FellKnight wrote:
>
> > On Dec 3 2006 9:24 PM, Mark-T wrote:
> >
> > > No limit Hold em
> > > WPT Championship, Bellagio, 2006
> > > Early stage of tourney
> > >
> > > Blinds: $50, $100
> > > MP: 5s, 6s
> > >
> > > Pre-flop:
> > > -------------
> > > UTG: call
> > > EP: $800
> > > MP: call
> > > ..... all fold
> > >
> > >
> > > Flop: Qs, 9s, 6h
> > > ---------
> > > EP: $3000
> > > MP: call
> > >
> > > MP: "$3000 was a big bet for this guy, so I knew
> > > he had an overpair."
> >
> > Assuming he cannot lay down the overpair, I am ok with a call here. You
> > shouldn't need or want to flip a coin for your stack here.
>
>
> Why shouldn't we want to flip a coin here? It's early in the tourney and
> if we trust our read of AA/KK then I see no other play here but to pop it
> up to about $15k. After our reraise he can't just call...he's gonna shove
> or fold. Lets apply the pressure and try and take the pot right here
> BEFORE we make our hand.
Because you are shoving in your whole stack, believing that you will be
flipping a coin for it. There are many reasons to not flip a coin for
your stack early in a major tourney. If we had a significant equity edge
( >60% against an overpair), then by all means I would agree to get it in.
> > > Turn: 2s
> > > ---------
> > > EP: check
> > > MP: check
> >
> > Say WHAT?
> >
> > In a contrived scenario, I could see checking here against a truly great
> > opponent who would muck to your flush, instead hoping to get a bet called
> > on a blank river, but against most people, especially knowing that there
> > is a 50% chance he has a live spade against you, you HAVE to bet here.
>
>
> Any scenario that involves a check here is certainly a convaluted one.
> Hell, its flat out wrong 99.9 % of the time.
Yup.
> > > River: 4s
> > > ---------
> > > EP: $5000
> > > MP: call
> >
> > Ugh. In a vacuum, if he bets this way with any AA or KK (whether with a
> > spade or not), you are correct to call, but he is far more likely to check
> > an blank overpair hoping that it will win a showdown, or to make a smaller
> > stopper bet. $5000 screams value to me. I expect to be shown AsAx and
> > lose the pot here.
> >
>
> The play of this hand was Uber weak tight after the flop. We trapped
> ourselves here. Nice.
Terrible. I'm pretty sure I fold to the river bet.
Fell
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Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
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Date: 03 Dec 2006 20:32:05
From: Richard52
Subject: Re: analyze this action
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Let me be the first to act:
Stack sizes? 3000 + 5000 on the river = 8000, did he have 2K left? Did
he have 20K left?
You have a read on the guy already or you just guessed?
How many behind you? It sounds like a short handed game the way you
typed it.
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Date: 03 Dec 2006 21:06:33
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: analyze this action
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On Dec 3 2006 9:32 PM, Richard52 wrote:
> Let me be the first to act:
>
> Stack sizes? 3000 + 5000 on the river = 8000, did he have 2K left? Did
> he have 20K left?
It's the bellagio WPT championship first level, so the stack sizes should
all be around $50k.
> You have a read on the guy already or you just guessed?
The read is that of a pro talking. Maybe he has played his opponent
before.
> How many behind you? It sounds like a short handed game the way you
> typed it.
Full table.
Fell
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Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
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Date: 04 Dec 19:16:20
From: steve1127
Subject: Re: analyze this action
|
On Dec 3 2006 11:24 PM, Mark-T wrote:
> No limit Hold em
> WPT Championship, Bellagio, 2006
> Early stage of tourney
>
> Blinds: $50, $100
> MP: 5s, 6s
>
> Pre-flop:
> -------------
> UTG: call
> EP: $800
> MP: call
> ..... all fold
>
>
> Flop: Qs, 9s, 6h
> ---------
> EP: $3000
> MP: call
>
> MP: "$3000 was a big bet for this guy, so I knew
> he had an overpair."
>
> Turn: 2s
> ---------
> EP: check
> MP: check
>
> River: 4s
> ---------
> EP: $5000
> MP: call
>
>
> Mark
I agree with the other comments so far. I can understand the call on the flop,
but to check the turn is terrible. Just terrible. I probably make the crying
call on the river too, but I'm sure I'm beat.
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Date: 04 Dec 2006 11:13:34
From: phlash74
Subject: Re: analyze this action
|
Mark-T wrote:
> No limit Hold em
> WPT Championship, Bellagio, 2006
> Early stage of tourney
>
> Blinds: $50, $100
> MP: 5s, 6s
>
> Pre-flop:
> -------------
> UTG: call
> EP: $800
> MP: call
> .... all fold
>
>
> Flop: Qs, 9s, 6h
> ---------
> EP: $3000
> MP: call
>
> MP: "$3000 was a big bet for this guy, so I knew
> he had an overpair."
>
> Turn: 2s
> ---------
> EP: check
> MP: check
>
> River: 4s
> ---------
> EP: $5000
> MP: call
>
>
> Mark
I'm not really crazy about the preflop call, I know there's big implied
odds but I would think you don't typically want to go heads up against
a big pair with a suited connector unless you're absolutely sure you
can get most or all of the opponent's stack when you hit. Great flop,
I like the flat call there. I'd almost rather hit a 5 and keep my
opponent guessing. The check behind on the turn is horrible. Maybe
the opponent gets away from their overpair there, but if they have a
spade, they'd have to call a value bet of $5000-$6000. I really doubt
AA or KK without a spade leads out on the river, so the only hand our
hero can beat is QQ, and the prior action makes no sense for that
holding. I will never understand people who call with drawing hands
and then fail to bet when their drawing hand hits. Who was the person
who played this hand and who was their opponent?
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Date: 04 Dec 2006 19:33:58
From: Mark-T
Subject: Re: analyze this action
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Old Wolf wrote:
> > MP: "In retrospect, if I bet the turn, he's coming with
> > AA or KK, and the nut flush draw. I'm pretty sure he
> > would have done that. I would've had to push all my
> > chips in on a 6 high flush. I don't want to do that in
> > deep stack poker. You might get some bizarre call
> > from a guy who's got the nut flush draw, and you'd be out.
> > You have to balance and protect yourself. I would
> > have value bet, or induced a bluff if a blank had
> > appeared, but I protected myself enough. I shouldn't even
> > have paid off the $5000."
>
> If that's your plan then why the hell would you call an
> 8xBB raise with 65s?
The implied odds if you hit a monster offers a big payoff
but you don't want to put your tournament life on the line
because he might be a MANIAC WHO WILL MAKE A
BIZARRE CALL (oh the horror!) and might draw out on
you so you protect yourself by giving him a free card and
then if he sucks out you cut your losses so you can stay
at the table and outplay them later.
Clear?
Mark
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Date: 04 Dec 2006 14:01:25
From: phlash74
Subject: Re: analyze this action
|
Mark-T wrote:
> FellKnight wrote:
> > > No limit Hold em
> > > WPT Championship, Bellagio, 2006
> > > Early stage of tourney
> > >
> > > Blinds: $50, $100
> > > MP: 5s, 6s
> > >
> > > Pre-flop:
> > > -------------
> > > UTG: call
> > > EP: $800
> > > MP: call
> > > ..... all fold
> > >
> > >
> > > Flop: Qs, 9s, 6h
> > > ---------
> > > EP: $3000
> > > MP: call
> > >
> > > MP: "$3000 was a big bet for this guy, so I knew
> > > he had an overpair."
> >
> > Assuming he cannot lay down the overpair, I am ok with a call here. You
> > shouldn't need or want to flip a coin for your stack here.
> >
> > > Turn: 2s
> > > ---------
> > > EP: check
> > > MP: check
> >
> > Say WHAT?
>
> MP: "I know I have the best hand. But when you're
> playing deep stack poker, it's a balance between
> maximizing and still protecting yourself."
>
> In other words, you profit by jettisoning equity.
> After all, "you can always outplay them later"...
> by tossing away even more equity... never bet
> with less than 100%, that's how the pros do it....
>
> > In a contrived scenario, I could see checking here against a truly great
> > opponent who would muck to your flush, instead hoping to get a bet called
> > on a blank river, but against most people, especially knowing that there
> > is a 50% chance he has a live spade against you, you HAVE to bet here.
> >
> > > River: 4s
> > > ---------
> > > EP: $5000
> > > MP: call
> >
> > Ugh. In a vacuum, if he bets this way with any AA or KK (whether with a
> > spade or not), you are correct to call, but he is far more likely to check
> > an blank overpair hoping that it will win a showdown, or to make a smaller
> > stopper bet.
>
> MP: "In retrospect, if I bet the turn, he's coming with
> AA or KK, and the nut flush draw. I'm pretty sure he
> would have done that. I would've had to push all my
> chips in on a 6 high flush. I don't want to do that in
> deep stack poker. You might get some bizarre call
> from a guy who's got the nut flush draw, and you'd be out.
> You have to balance and protect yourself. I would
> have value bet, or induced a bluff if a blank had
> appeared, but I protected myself enough. I shouldn't even
> have paid off the $5000."
>
> MP is "respected pro" Kenna James.
> Here's some respect: Mr. James is a moron.
>
> "YOU NEVER WANT TO PUT YOUR TOURNAMENT
> LIFE ON THE LINE! SOME MANIAC MIGHT CALL!"
>
> He'd fit in beautifully on this board...
>
> > $5000 screams value to me. I expect to be shown AsAx and
> > lose the pot here.
>
> A cigar for Sir Darkness.
>
>
> Mark
If you had told me it was Kenna James, you could have stopped right
there. Every time I've seen him play on TV, he's made one retarded
play after another and paid off opponents with hands that didn't even
justify a crying call. I really like how he doesn't want to put his
tourney life on the line as better than a 5-1 favorite with one card to
come(I'm guessing he wouldn't hesitate to push AA vs KK preflop as a
4.5-1 favorite), but will call a near pot size bet on a four flush
board with the 6 and 5 of spades. The only hands he can beat are 3s
and a bluff, neither of which are remotely suggested by his opponent's
action. If you're afraid to bet the flush on the turn for fear of
getting outdrawn, why the fuck call the 8xBB raise in the first place?
The only reason to call with small suited connectors against a raiser
when you're going to be headsup is to stack him off on the few
occasions you do hit your hand.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2219374
pokenum -h 6s 5s - as ac -- qs 9s 6h 2s
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qs 9s 2s 6h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 5s 37 84.09 7 15.91 0 0.00 0.841
As Ac 7 15.91 37 84.09 0 0.00 0.159
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Date: 04 Dec 2006 13:13:49
From: Old Wolf
Subject: Re: analyze this action
|
Mark-T wrote:
> MP: "In retrospect, if I bet the turn, he's coming with
> AA or KK, and the nut flush draw. I'm pretty sure he
> would have done that. I would've had to push all my
> chips in on a 6 high flush. I don't want to do that in
> deep stack poker. You might get some bizarre call
> from a guy who's got the nut flush draw, and you'd be out.
> You have to balance and protect yourself. I would
> have value bet, or induced a bluff if a blank had
> appeared, but I protected myself enough. I shouldn't even
> have paid off the $5000."
If that's your plan then why the hell would you call an
8xBB raise with 65s?
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Date: 04 Dec 2006 19:54:16
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: analyze this action
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On Dec 4 2006 2:13 PM, Old Wolf wrote:
> Mark-T wrote:
> > MP: "In retrospect, if I bet the turn, he's coming with
> > AA or KK, and the nut flush draw. I'm pretty sure he
> > would have done that. I would've had to push all my
> > chips in on a 6 high flush. I don't want to do that in
> > deep stack poker. You might get some bizarre call
> > from a guy who's got the nut flush draw, and you'd be out.
> > You have to balance and protect yourself. I would
> > have value bet, or induced a bluff if a blank had
> > appeared, but I protected myself enough. I shouldn't even
> > have paid off the $5000."
>
> If that's your plan then why the hell would you call an
> 8xBB raise with 65s?
Excellent point.
"I don't want to bet my 6 high flush because I might be out if he stacks
off with the nut flush draw (and AA)... umm, ok then, I'll take an 84%
chance to double up. If I'm out, fuck it. There is no way in hell that I
am 84% to double up by playing "good solid poker"
Fell
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Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
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Date: 04 Dec 2006 13:03:16
From: Mark-T
Subject: Re: analyze this action
|
FellKnight wrote:
> > No limit Hold em
> > WPT Championship, Bellagio, 2006
> > Early stage of tourney
> >
> > Blinds: $50, $100
> > MP: 5s, 6s
> >
> > Pre-flop:
> > -------------
> > UTG: call
> > EP: $800
> > MP: call
> > ..... all fold
> >
> >
> > Flop: Qs, 9s, 6h
> > ---------
> > EP: $3000
> > MP: call
> >
> > MP: "$3000 was a big bet for this guy, so I knew
> > he had an overpair."
>
> Assuming he cannot lay down the overpair, I am ok with a call here. You
> shouldn't need or want to flip a coin for your stack here.
>
> > Turn: 2s
> > ---------
> > EP: check
> > MP: check
>
> Say WHAT?
MP: "I know I have the best hand. But when you're
playing deep stack poker, it's a balance between
maximizing and still protecting yourself."
In other words, you profit by jettisoning equity.
After all, "you can always outplay them later"...
by tossing away even more equity... never bet
with less than 100%, that's how the pros do it....
> In a contrived scenario, I could see checking here against a truly great
> opponent who would muck to your flush, instead hoping to get a bet called
> on a blank river, but against most people, especially knowing that there
> is a 50% chance he has a live spade against you, you HAVE to bet here.
>
> > River: 4s
> > ---------
> > EP: $5000
> > MP: call
>
> Ugh. In a vacuum, if he bets this way with any AA or KK (whether with a
> spade or not), you are correct to call, but he is far more likely to check
> an blank overpair hoping that it will win a showdown, or to make a smaller
> stopper bet.
MP: "In retrospect, if I bet the turn, he's coming with
AA or KK, and the nut flush draw. I'm pretty sure he
would have done that. I would've had to push all my
chips in on a 6 high flush. I don't want to do that in
deep stack poker. You might get some bizarre call
from a guy who's got the nut flush draw, and you'd be out.
You have to balance and protect yourself. I would
have value bet, or induced a bluff if a blank had
appeared, but I protected myself enough. I shouldn't even
have paid off the $5000."
MP is "respected pro" Kenna James.
Here's some respect: Mr. James is a moron.
"YOU NEVER WANT TO PUT YOUR TOURNAMENT
LIFE ON THE LINE! SOME MANIAC MIGHT CALL!"
He'd fit in beautifully on this board...
> $5000 screams value to me. I expect to be shown AsAx and
> lose the pot here.
A cigar for Sir Darkness.
Mark
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Date: 04 Dec 2006 19:51:59
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: analyze this action
|
On Dec 4 2006 2:03 PM, Mark-T wrote:
> FellKnight wrote:
> > > No limit Hold em
> > > WPT Championship, Bellagio, 2006
> > > Early stage of tourney
> > >
> > > Blinds: $50, $100
> > > MP: 5s, 6s
> > >
> > > Pre-flop:
> > > -------------
> > > UTG: call
> > > EP: $800
> > > MP: call
> > > ..... all fold
> > >
> > >
> > > Flop: Qs, 9s, 6h
> > > ---------
> > > EP: $3000
> > > MP: call
> > >
> > > MP: "$3000 was a big bet for this guy, so I knew
> > > he had an overpair."
> >
> > Assuming he cannot lay down the overpair, I am ok with a call here. You
> > shouldn't need or want to flip a coin for your stack here.
> >
> > > Turn: 2s
> > > ---------
> > > EP: check
> > > MP: check
> >
> > Say WHAT?
>
> MP: "I know I have the best hand. But when you're
> playing deep stack poker, it's a balance between
> maximizing and still protecting yourself."
>
> In other words, you profit by jettisoning equity.
> After all, "you can always outplay them later"...
> by tossing away even more equity... never bet
> with less than 100%, that's how the pros do it....
>
> > In a contrived scenario, I could see checking here against a truly great
> > opponent who would muck to your flush, instead hoping to get a bet called
> > on a blank river, but against most people, especially knowing that there
> > is a 50% chance he has a live spade against you, you HAVE to bet here.
> >
> > > River: 4s
> > > ---------
> > > EP: $5000
> > > MP: call
> >
> > Ugh. In a vacuum, if he bets this way with any AA or KK (whether with a
> > spade or not), you are correct to call, but he is far more likely to check
> > an blank overpair hoping that it will win a showdown, or to make a smaller
> > stopper bet.
>
> MP: "In retrospect, if I bet the turn, he's coming with
> AA or KK, and the nut flush draw. I'm pretty sure he
> would have done that. I would've had to push all my
> chips in on a 6 high flush. I don't want to do that in
> deep stack poker. You might get some bizarre call
> from a guy who's got the nut flush draw, and you'd be out.
> You have to balance and protect yourself. I would
> have value bet, or induced a bluff if a blank had
> appeared, but I protected myself enough. I shouldn't even
> have paid off the $5000."
>
> MP is "respected pro" Kenna James.
> Here's some respect: Mr. James is a moron.
>
> "YOU NEVER WANT TO PUT YOUR TOURNAMENT
> LIFE ON THE LINE! SOME MANIAC MIGHT CALL!"
>
> He'd fit in beautifully on this board...
>
> > $5000 screams value to me. I expect to be shown AsAx and
> > lose the pot here.
>
> A cigar for Sir Darkness.
>
>
> Mark
That is pretty terrible.
Fell
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Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
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