Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

pokerfied.com
Promoting poker discussions.

Main

Date: 07 Dec 2006 07:15:46
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Playing in a 180 player SnG last night that is down to 12 players and I am
11th in chips with about 9k. Blinds are 400/800 and I really haven't had
anything to play in a while and am getting concerned about being blinded
off. I get 10/10 on the button and it is folded around to me. The SB has
30k and the bb is 5k and the only person with less chips than me.

My initial thought is to force the BB to fold or risk all his chips with
maybe one over card. I push and the SB calls immediately and is holding
AA. I get no help and bust out. This seems to happen a lot to me.

Here is the delima. Lets say I raise 4 x bb and the SB just calls? How
can I not get busted on a rainbow 9 high flop? (Which is what happened)
I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been waiting a long
time for something to play and there is no way to know if he is just
trying to re-steal or has a big hand.

Bad playing or just bad luck?

_____________________________________________________________________
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 10:05:27
From: Bryan
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Ron Dworkin wrote:
> Bryan wrote:
> > Ron Dworkin wrote:
> > > Will_gamble wrote:
> > > > I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been waiting a long
> > > > time for something to play and there is no way to know if he is just
> > > > trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
> > >
> > > Pushing is not horrible given that you will be increasing your stack by
> > > a decent percentage if you win. But I don't think it is the best play
> > > really. I would prefer a standard raise followed by pushing on most
> > > flops if you are called and checked to. And you can still get away if
> > > the flop has a couple of over cards and you are pushed at. Open
> > > pushing really narrows down the range the SB gets involved with and
> > > ensures you are playing for all your chips against that tight range.
> >
> > If you were in the SB here, would you really change the range of hands
> > you're playing if the button raiser commits 40%-ish of his stack as an
> > opening raise ?
>
> If the raise is to 3BB it is about 25% of his stack. And sometimes I
> would, yes.

Ok, sorry, I thought you wanted to open on the button for the 5k that
the BB has left. If you're opening for that little then ok, you are
putting the same pressure on the BB as it's half his stack. You can
still get away from it if the SB pushes (although I'm not convinced you
want to get away from TT in this spot).

> >
> > Or to put it another way, is there any situation where you'd be looking
> > to flat-call for 5k without the intention of going all the way,
> > regardless of the board cards ?
>
> Not sure - who is flat calling for 5k in this scenario?

This would be the SB calling for 5k - as per previous confusion. The
rest of the argument was based on the pot-size that you generate when
you make a 5k bet and get called by the SB. I couldn't see anyway that
the SB can change his range, as you are practically forced to call his
flop-push or push yourself should he check, in my opinion. I could well
be wrong, I often am.

Date: 07 Dec 2006 12:50:23
From: John B.
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Bad luck. Next game...

John B.

"Will_gamble" <will_gamble2@yahoo.com > wrote in message
news:2qnl44x4h5.ln2@recgroups.com...
> Playing in a 180 player SnG last night that is down to 12 players and I am
> 11th in chips with about 9k. Blinds are 400/800 and I really haven't had
> anything to play in a while and am getting concerned about being blinded
> off. I get 10/10 on the button and it is folded around to me. The SB has
> 30k and the bb is 5k and the only person with less chips than me.
>
> My initial thought is to force the BB to fold or risk all his chips with
> maybe one over card. I push and the SB calls immediately and is holding
> AA. I get no help and bust out. This seems to happen a lot to me.
>
> Here is the delima. Lets say I raise 4 x bb and the SB just calls? How
> can I not get busted on a rainbow 9 high flop? (Which is what happened)
> I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been waiting a long
> time for something to play and there is no way to know if he is just
> trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
>
> Bad playing or just bad luck?
>
> _____________________________________________________________________
> * kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com
>

Date: 07 Dec 2006 08:26:18
From: Ron Dworkin
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Bryan wrote:
> Ron Dworkin wrote:
> > Will_gamble wrote:
> > > I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been waiting a long
> > > time for something to play and there is no way to know if he is just
> > > trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
> >
> > Pushing is not horrible given that you will be increasing your stack by
> > a decent percentage if you win. But I don't think it is the best play
> > really. I would prefer a standard raise followed by pushing on most
> > flops if you are called and checked to. And you can still get away if
> > the flop has a couple of over cards and you are pushed at. Open
> > pushing really narrows down the range the SB gets involved with and
> > ensures you are playing for all your chips against that tight range.
>
> If you were in the SB here, would you really change the range of hands
> you're playing if the button raiser commits 40%-ish of his stack as an
> opening raise ?

If the raise is to 3BB it is about 25% of his stack. And sometimes I
would, yes.
>
> Or to put it another way, is there any situation where you'd be looking
> to flat-call for 5k without the intention of going all the way,
> regardless of the board cards ?

Not sure - who is flat calling for 5k in this scenario?

>
> The way I'd be reading it is that the pot is going to be at least
> 10800

?

, the button short-stack only has 7k left so worst case he's going
> to have to call 7k to win at least 17.8k, He's very probably going to
> close his eyes, pray and call.
>
> No ?

Um, maybe?

Date: 07 Dec 16:21:49
From: CHarrison100
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

On Dec 7 2006 10:15 AM, Will_gamble wrote:

> Playing in a 180 player SnG last night that is down to 12 players and I am
> 11th in chips with about 9k. Blinds are 400/800 and I really haven't had
> anything to play in a while and am getting concerned about being blinded
> off. I get 10/10 on the button and it is folded around to me. The SB has
> 30k and the bb is 5k and the only person with less chips than me.
>
> My initial thought is to force the BB to fold or risk all his chips with
> maybe one over card. I push and the SB calls immediately and is holding
> AA. I get no help and bust out. This seems to happen a lot to me.
>
> Here is the delima. Lets say I raise 4 x bb and the SB just calls? How
> can I not get busted on a rainbow 9 high flop? (Which is what happened)
> I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been waiting a long
> time for something to play and there is no way to know if he is just
> trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
>
> Bad playing or just bad luck?

Smalll disclaimer here I suck at this game but i am learning. I am willing to
listen to any advice so If i am wrong here let me know. this is the thought
process I am having on this.

Blinds are coming fast and you have only 7 more rounds if the blinds don't go
up. You are also on the button. No action before you. A bet of 2400 (3BB) will
put in just under a third of your stack.

I would limp and see what happens after me.
If there is a large rasise from the SB I would release the hand
If the BB goes allin I would call
If you see a flop then you have position and get to see how it goes.

_______________________________________________________________
New Feature: Mark All As Read! - http://www.recpoker.com

Date: 07 Dec 16:26:30
From: steve1127
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

On Dec 7 2006 11:21 AM, CHarrison100 wrote:

>
>
>
> On Dec 7 2006 10:15 AM, Will_gamble wrote:
>
> > Playing in a 180 player SnG last night that is down to 12 players and I am
> > 11th in chips with about 9k. Blinds are 400/800 and I really haven't had
> > anything to play in a while and am getting concerned about being blinded
> > off. I get 10/10 on the button and it is folded around to me. The SB has
> > 30k and the bb is 5k and the only person with less chips than me.
> >
> > My initial thought is to force the BB to fold or risk all his chips with
> > maybe one over card. I push and the SB calls immediately and is holding
> > AA. I get no help and bust out. This seems to happen a lot to me.
> >
> > Here is the delima. Lets say I raise 4 x bb and the SB just calls? How
> > can I not get busted on a rainbow 9 high flop? (Which is what happened)
> > I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been waiting a long
> > time for something to play and there is no way to know if he is just
> > trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
> >
> > Bad playing or just bad luck?
>
> Smalll disclaimer here I suck at this game but i am learning. I am willing to
> listen to any advice so If i am wrong here let me know. this is the thought
> process I am having on this.
>
> Blinds are coming fast and you have only 7 more rounds if the blinds don't go
> up. You are also on the button. No action before you. A bet of 2400 (3BB) will
> put in just under a third of your stack.
>
> I would limp and see what happens after me.
> If there is a large rasise from the SB I would release the hand
> If the BB goes allin I would call
> If you see a flop then you have position and get to see how it goes.

I think this is pretty terrible. TT figures to be the best hand a vast majority
of the time here. But TT is also tough to play postflop if something like KJx
hits the board. Since you have no idea what the blinds have (if they just
limp/check), you have no idea if your hand is good, and are begging someone to
outplay you. By raising preflop with what is very likely the best hand, you
give yourself the best chance to win preflop AND postflop, as you can bet out if
it's checked to you no matter what flops, really, figuring that they have to
give you credit for a hand.

Also, with your stack so low, you really shouldn't be limping much. The blinds
and antes alone are worth like 1/6th of your stack, so every time you steal them
you're adding substantially to your chips.
>
>
>

_______________________________________________________________
The Largest Online Poker Community - http://www.recpoker.com

Date: 07 Dec 16:20:44
From: steve1127
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

On Dec 7 2006 10:15 AM, Will_gamble wrote:

> Playing in a 180 player SnG last night that is down to 12 players and I am
> 11th in chips with about 9k. Blinds are 400/800 and I really haven't had
> anything to play in a while and am getting concerned about being blinded
> off. I get 10/10 on the button and it is folded around to me. The SB has
> 30k and the bb is 5k and the only person with less chips than me.
>
> My initial thought is to force the BB to fold or risk all his chips with
> maybe one over card. I push and the SB calls immediately and is holding
> AA. I get no help and bust out. This seems to happen a lot to me.
>
> Here is the delima. Lets say I raise 4 x bb and the SB just calls? How
> can I not get busted on a rainbow 9 high flop? (Which is what happened)
> I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been waiting a long
> time for something to play and there is no way to know if he is just
> trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
>
> Bad playing or just bad luck?

You should go broke there every single time (when you don't suck out). You
should not fold to a reraise from the big stack, and you should not fold on the
9 high board. Just bad luck.

_______________________________________________________________
* New Release: RecPoker.com v2.2 - http://www.recpoker.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 08:10:16
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

> Playing in a 180 player SnG last night that is down to 12 players and I am
> 11th in chips with about 9k. Blinds are 400/800 and I really haven't had
> anything to play in a while and am getting concerned about being blinded
> off. I get 10/10 on the button and it is folded around to me. The SB has
> 30k and the bb is 5k and the only person with less chips than me.
>
> My initial thought is to force the BB to fold or risk all his chips with
> maybe one over card. I push and the SB calls immediately and is holding
> AA. I get no help and bust out. This seems to happen a lot to me.
>
> Here is the delima. Lets say I raise 4 x bb and the SB just calls? How
> can I not get busted on a rainbow 9 high flop? (Which is what happened)
> I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been waiting a long
> time for something to play and there is no way to know if he is just
> trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
>
> Bad playing or just bad luck?

A general suggestion/something to try...try lowering the amount of your
pre-flop raise once the blinds hit 150/300 or 200/400. I typically use
2.5xBB here. The thinking is that if someone will fold to a 3xBB raise,
they will fold to a 2.5xBB raise, and if they will call a 2.5xBB raise
they likely call as much as a 4xBB raise. What that gets you is a bit
more room to maneuver when the stacks aren't very deep (as in most online
tourneys).

Assuming you are stealing regularly, people are going to play back at you
more often than if you are a tight player (by defintion of playing more
hands). The 2.5xBB raise allows you the ability to release the hand
easier if played back at.

For this example, blinds 400/800, you have 9k. If you raise 4xBB to 3200,
you've just put 1/3 of your stack in the pot, and really shouldn't fold if
played back at. But if you make the raise to 2k, hands that will fold
typically still fold, and hands that play back typically still play back.
The thing is, you have more of a stack if you get played back at and
decide to fold.

I'm not advocating raising to fold here. I'm advocating raising to give
yourself the ability to fold if that is what is desired. That said, in
this situation, I raise to 2k and the SB obviously at least calls, if not
re-raises. If he re-raises, I decide based on playing him previously what
I think my TT is worth here, and go with that. Of course, there are times
when pushing pre-flop is a good choice, and I'm not saying it was the
wrong move here. I just wanted to give you something else to consider.

Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

----
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 08:52:08
From: CincinnatiKid
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

On Dec 7 2006 11:10 AM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> > Playing in a 180 player SnG last night that is down to 12 players and I am
> > 11th in chips with about 9k. Blinds are 400/800 and I really haven't had
> > anything to play in a while and am getting concerned about being blinded
> > off. I get 10/10 on the button and it is folded around to me. The SB has
> > 30k and the bb is 5k and the only person with less chips than me.
> >
> > My initial thought is to force the BB to fold or risk all his chips with
> > maybe one over card. I push and the SB calls immediately and is holding
> > AA. I get no help and bust out. This seems to happen a lot to me.
> >
> > Here is the delima. Lets say I raise 4 x bb and the SB just calls? How
> > can I not get busted on a rainbow 9 high flop? (Which is what happened)
> > I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been waiting a long
> > time for something to play and there is no way to know if he is just
> > trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
> >
> > Bad playing or just bad luck?
>
> A general suggestion/something to try...try lowering the amount of your
> pre-flop raise once the blinds hit 150/300 or 200/400. I typically use
> 2.5xBB here. The thinking is that if someone will fold to a 3xBB raise,
> they will fold to a 2.5xBB raise, and if they will call a 2.5xBB raise
> they likely call as much as a 4xBB raise. What that gets you is a bit
> more room to maneuver when the stacks aren't very deep (as in most online
> tourneys).
>
> Assuming you are stealing regularly, people are going to play back at you
> more often than if you are a tight player (by defintion of playing more
> hands). The 2.5xBB raise allows you the ability to release the hand
> easier if played back at.
>
> For this example, blinds 400/800, you have 9k. If you raise 4xBB to 3200,
> you've just put 1/3 of your stack in the pot, and really shouldn't fold if
> played back at. But if you make the raise to 2k, hands that will fold
> typically still fold, and hands that play back typically still play back.
> The thing is, you have more of a stack if you get played back at and
> decide to fold.
>
> I'm not advocating raising to fold here. I'm advocating raising to give
> yourself the ability to fold if that is what is desired. That said, in
> this situation, I raise to 2k and the SB obviously at least calls, if not
> re-raises. If he re-raises, I decide based on playing him previously what
> I think my TT is worth here, and go with that. Of course, there are times
> when pushing pre-flop is a good choice, and I'm not saying it was the
> wrong move here. I just wanted to give you something else to consider.
>
> Morphy
> http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

While this is something to consider it really doesn't apply to this
situation. The play is all in, or at least betting the amount that the
short stack has left which seems to send the message of "call me. I dare
ya. I have a good hand."

6 handed, short stacked. Push. Easy decision.

-----
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 09:20:06
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

> While this is something to consider it really doesn't apply to this
> situation. The play is all in, or at least betting the amount that the
> short stack has left which seems to send the message of "call me. I dare
> ya. I have a good hand."
>
> 6 handed, short stacked. Push. Easy decision.

I purposely didn't give a suggestion to the hand because I think there's
more details that we don't have, that only someone playing the entire time
would have. Like, is the SB ultra tight? Is the SB a calling station?
What is our image at the table? Is the BB that low on chips because he
just lost a big hand and is likely to push? Does the BB defend his
blinds? What about our image? Are we ultra tight, are we ultra loose,
did we just lose a big hand?

There's about 30 other questions that could be asked with this situation.
There are times when a push is right, and there are times when a raise is
right. If the SB is ultra tight, that means he's going to fold whether we
push or make a standard raise. So why push here when the only hand that
calls us has us beat when a standard raise achieves the same thing, if
these were the table situations.

I'm trying to think more conceptually about poker, instead of just handing
someone a flow chart that says "TT? Push!" There's a lot more
information here that needs to be determined before we can answer this one
from the outside...

Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

-----
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 12:55:15
From: CincinnatiKid
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

On Dec 7 2006 12:20 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> > While this is something to consider it really doesn't apply to this
> > situation. The play is all in, or at least betting the amount that the
> > short stack has left which seems to send the message of "call me. I dare
> > ya. I have a good hand."
> >
> > 6 handed, short stacked. Push. Easy decision.
>
> I purposely didn't give a suggestion to the hand because I think there's
> more details that we don't have, that only someone playing the entire time
> would have. Like, is the SB ultra tight? Is the SB a calling station?
> What is our image at the table? Is the BB that low on chips because he
> just lost a big hand and is likely to push? Does the BB defend his
> blinds? What about our image? Are we ultra tight, are we ultra loose,
> did we just lose a big hand?
>
> There's about 30 other questions that could be asked with this situation.
> There are times when a push is right, and there are times when a raise is
> right. If the SB is ultra tight, that means he's going to fold whether we
> push or make a standard raise. So why push here when the only hand that
> calls us has us beat when a standard raise achieves the same thing, if
> these were the table situations.
>
> I'm trying to think more conceptually about poker, instead of just handing
> someone a flow chart that says "TT? Push!" There's a lot more
> information here that needs to be determined before we can answer this one
> from the outside...
>
> Morphy
> http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

Um, not really. If we make our standard raise and we are reraised are we
going to fold TT here? While there are a few variables to consider the
answer to my question will almost always be "no." We aren't playing this
hand any differently if we chose to play it. We could just fold it preflop
I guess.....no, we couldn't. Everyone on this newsgroup goes broke here.
EVERYONE.

This is one of those goofy questions that in the end really doesn't
require much more than a "duh" response unfortunately.

----
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 08:51:21
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

On Dec 7 2006 10:10 AM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
>
> A general suggestion/something to try...try lowering the amount of your
> pre-flop raise once the blinds hit 150/300 or 200/400. I typically use
> 2.5xBB here. The thinking is that if someone will fold to a 3xBB raise,
> they will fold to a 2.5xBB raise, and if they will call a 2.5xBB raise
> they likely call as much as a 4xBB raise.

Once again, excellent information. Thanks. That will be my MO going
forward.

Do you generally draw conclusions from people raises... ie the greater the
PF raise, especially when they are first in with average stacks or
greater, the more venerable the hand? I guess you would have to take it
on a case by case basis. I have been trying to draw some conclusions on
this, but most of the time there are no callers and I don't get to find
out.

In the few instances where there is something to key off of, I try to
guess what they might have and since you can't see the person, reaction
time and bet size are about all you have to work with. 2xbb has been AA
or KK very often when it is short handed.

I try to make guesses based on what people do instinctively rather than
premeditated as I think very few lower level players do anything that is
too sophisticated. If I have JJ and don't want to get called, I raise to
maybe 5 x bb instinctively. This is also true of lower pairs and AQ. My
thinking is that I would like to be able to establish some bet size tells
and would stick with them come hell or high water. Sure you will be wrong
sometimes, but if you are correct, it will be a +EV long term. It just
rarely turns out to be black and white.

My last revalation... I came in second in a 180 the other day and my
impression of what I did to get there was pretty much Jamie Goldish... I
got hit by the deck. That is also my impression of how others usually get
there. So why do I spend all this time thinking about how to improve? I
just need to improve the cards I get.

Thanks again Morphy

________________________________________________________________________
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 09:10:39
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

> Do you generally draw conclusions from people raises... ie the greater the
> PF raise, especially when they are first in with average stacks or
> greater, the more venerable the hand? I guess you would have to take it
> on a case by case basis. I have been trying to draw some conclusions on
> this, but most of the time there are no callers and I don't get to find
> out.

This all depends on the player really. Some players raise more with hands
they don't want a call with, and less with hands they want a call with.
Some players make random raises, some make raises based on position, and
some keep raises all the same.

A few of us have had this discussion offline, and the ideas are all over
the place. I like keeping same amount raises because even if I choose a
random amount to raise and change it, say between 2.5xBB and 4.5xBB, my
opponents may think they are trying to pick up on something and read what
I assume is a random raise as something that it isn't, and play based on
that.

Instead of trying to figure out what cards they have, try to figure out
what their intentions are. Do they want you to fold, or do they want you
to call, or what do they plan on doing with their hands? For an extreme
example from something I've seen in SNGs, say blinds 10/20, and a guy
raises to 300 pre-flop. He's not folding, no matter what happens. Based
on knowing this, we don't even really need to consider his cards, since
he's riding them all the way.

> In the few instances where there is something to key off of, I try to
> guess what they might have and since you can't see the person, reaction
> time and bet size are about all you have to work with. 2xbb has been AA
> or KK very often when it is short handed.

I've been playing mostly cash games the last year, and I see all sorts of
different stuff for the min raise. Some players use it as a pot builder
for their more speculative hands (like QJ), others use it with AA, and
others just never raise any more than 2xBB no matter what. It's dangerous
to always assume that a certain amount raise or a raise from a certain
position is a certain hand.

> I try to make guesses based on what people do instinctively rather than
> premeditated as I think very few lower level players do anything that is
> too sophisticated. If I have JJ and don't want to get called, I raise to
> maybe 5 x bb instinctively. This is also true of lower pairs and AQ. My
> thinking is that I would like to be able to establish some bet size tells
> and would stick with them come hell or high water. Sure you will be wrong
> sometimes, but if you are correct, it will be a +EV long term. It just
> rarely turns out to be black and white.

Just be careful with this, because the more astute players will start to
notice that sometimes you raise to 5xBB and others 3xBB. Even though you
aren't showing down hands, they may make their own assumptions and go
based on that.

> My last revalation... I came in second in a 180 the other day and my
> impression of what I did to get there was pretty much Jamie Goldish... I
> got hit by the deck. That is also my impression of how others usually get
> there. So why do I spend all this time thinking about how to improve? I
> just need to improve the cards I get.

Hah...well, cards have something to do with it, but the short handed game
is about much more than cards. Sure, you can go on a rush getting hit by
the deck and dominate, but just as easily you can be sitting 2/5, get
all-in with AA vs. 1/5 and lose to his hand. It's all about what you do
with the situations presented. Cards are over-rated :)

Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

------
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 12:27:42
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

> It's all about what you do
> with the situations presented. Cards are over-rated :)
>
> Morphy
> http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

I take this with a grain of salt and know you are semi bluffing. However,
I have a constant debate going with myself about luck and skill. Luck
being the cards you get and the distribution of cards to everyone else.

When people push me off of hands it feels like they have a skill I don't,
but in reality, they were probably just lucky... lucky to get the cards
that gave them confidence (better draw maybe) to make the move to push me
off, and lucky that I got the cards that convinced me I was behind and
should fold.

Personally, I think poker is 70% luck, 25% experience, and 5% skill.
(unscientific of course)

--------
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 12:34:37
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

> I take this with a grain of salt and know you are semi bluffing. However,
> I have a constant debate going with myself about luck and skill. Luck
> being the cards you get and the distribution of cards to everyone else.
>
> When people push me off of hands it feels like they have a skill I don't,
> but in reality, they were probably just lucky... lucky to get the cards
> that gave them confidence (better draw maybe) to make the move to push me
> off, and lucky that I got the cards that convinced me I was behind and
> should fold.
>
> Personally, I think poker is 70% luck, 25% experience, and 5% skill.
> (unscientific of course)

I won't get into the luck vs. skill debate, because I guess I've proven I
can't even add 1+1...but I will say this. The skill is in your decisions.
The luck is in what happens after you make those decisions. Someone here
a long time ago said the cards are 100% luck, but the betting is 100%
skill.

The skill is in your patience and discipline to fold the bad hands and
play the good. Going past the cards, the skill is in your ability to
figure out what your opponents have, because if you can do that, it
doesn't matter what you're holding, you will make decisions that put you
in a position to win.

A lot of metagame type stuff comes into play here as well, but that's
likely another discussion topic.

Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

------
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 12:04:59
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

On Dec 7 2006 11:10 AM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
> Just be careful with this, because the more astute players will start to
> notice that sometimes you raise to 5xBB and others 3xBB. Even though you
> aren't showing down hands, they may make their own assumptions and go
> based on that.
>

What I was saying is that I often have to make a contentious effort NOT to
bet instinctively and make larger PF bets when I least want a call. I try
to stick with 3x all the time.

One other problem this brings up is getting many PF callers when you have
AA early in low buy in SnG's. You are almost put in a position that you
have to make it 5x when blinds are 10/20. Otherwise you get 5 callers at
3x and your hand loses a great deal of value.

______________________________________________________________________
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 12:23:44
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

> What I was saying is that I often have to make a contentious effort NOT to
> bet instinctively and make larger PF bets when I least want a call. I try
> to stick with 3x all the time.

Ahh yeah that makes sense, and yeah, it can be a pain in the ass
sometimes. You get JJ on the button, and you might as well just start
loading up the next game. You make a normal raise, it inevitably gets
called and you see all overcards. You jam, and run into AA. You limp,
and I come over and take away your computer :) There are tough
situations like that, and that's why there's skill involved in the game :)

I typically start out at 4xBB (always assuming +1BB per limper) for my
raises, then at the 25/50 level or so (depending on site), I go to 3xBB,
and then somewhere around 150/300 or 200/400 I start lowering it a bit to
2.5xBB. That doesn't mean that I won't just jam at someone though,
regardless of the stack sizes. I find that in a SNG on the bubble, if I'm
the chip leader and it folds to me on the SB, a jam with just about any 2
gets a fold much more often than a standard raise would. For some reason
a standard raise seems to say to these idiots "yes, please jam at me".

> One other problem this brings up is getting many PF callers when you have
> AA early in low buy in SnG's. You are almost put in a position that you
> have to make it 5x when blinds are 10/20. Otherwise you get 5 callers at
> 3x and your hand loses a great deal of value.

It's tough for me because I rarely fold AA in a SNG, at any point during
the hand. I'm too stubborn I think, and overall I believe it's a mistake
to not play it as aggressively as possible every time you get it. That
seems to be pretty obvious...but I mean still continue to go with it even
with extremely scary flops.

My typical play with AA early on is 4xBB plus 1 BB for each limper if it's
limped to me. I then get ready to try and get my stack in on just about
any flop. If there are raises to me, I sometimes just jam, since to a lot
of people a jam seems weaker than a standard re-raise.

Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

____________________________________________________________________
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 12:32:14
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

> It's tough for me because I rarely fold AA in a SNG, at any point during
> the hand. I'm too stubborn I think, and overall I believe it's a mistake
> to not play it as aggressively as possible every time you get it. That
> seems to be pretty obvious...but I mean still continue to go with it even
> with extremely scary flops.

Long term you can't lose, especially if you are playing limit.

-----
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 12:42:44
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

> Long term you can't lose, especially if you are playing limit.

You've never seen me play limit.

Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

_____________________________________________________________________
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 08:04:51
From: Bryan
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Ron Dworkin wrote:
> Will_gamble wrote:
> > I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been waiting a long
> > time for something to play and there is no way to know if he is just
> > trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
>
> Pushing is not horrible given that you will be increasing your stack by
> a decent percentage if you win. But I don't think it is the best play
> really. I would prefer a standard raise followed by pushing on most
> flops if you are called and checked to. And you can still get away if
> the flop has a couple of over cards and you are pushed at. Open
> pushing really narrows down the range the SB gets involved with and
> ensures you are playing for all your chips against that tight range.

If you were in the SB here, would you really change the range of hands
you're playing if the button raiser commits 40%-ish of his stack as an
opening raise ?

Or to put it another way, is there any situation where you'd be looking
to flat-call for 5k without the intention of going all the way,
regardless of the board cards ?

The way I'd be reading it is that the pot is going to be at least
10800, the button short-stack only has 7k left so worst case he's going
to have to call 7k to win at least 17.8k, He's very probably going to
close his eyes, pray and call.

No ?

Date: 07 Dec 2006 16:01:04
From: GH
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Will_gamble wrote:

> Here is the delima. Lets say I raise 4 x bb and the SB just calls?
> How can I not get busted on a rainbow 9 high flop? (Which is what
> happened) I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been
> waiting a long time for something to play and there is no way to know
> if he is just trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
>
> Bad playing or just bad luck?

Pushing is a reasonable play I think, but at this point, as the no. 11
player, you might have taken a quick look at where the no. 12 and 13
players stood stack-wise. If their stacks look like they might go out
at any moment, you might just try a 3xBB raise and fold to any re-raise,
hoping to hang on for at least 10th place, which is a jump in the payout
amount in those 180-person tournaments, if I'm not mistaken.

Just a thought. For myself, I'd have probably raised 3xBB and pushed on
any re-raise that didn't put me all-in already, so what do I know?

GH

Date: 07 Dec 16:21:49
From: steve1127
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

On Dec 7 2006 11:01 AM, GH wrote:

> Will_gamble wrote:
>
> > Here is the delima. Lets say I raise 4 x bb and the SB just calls?
> > How can I not get busted on a rainbow 9 high flop? (Which is what
> > happened) I guess if reraises I might lay it down, but I have been
> > waiting a long time for something to play and there is no way to know
> > if he is just trying to re-steal or has a big hand.
> >
> > Bad playing or just bad luck?
>
> Pushing is a reasonable play I think, but at this point, as the no. 11
> player, you might have taken a quick look at where the no. 12 and 13
> players stood stack-wise. If their stacks look like they might go out
> at any moment, you might just try a 3xBB raise and fold to any re-raise,
> hoping to hang on for at least 10th place, which is a jump in the payout
> amount in those 180-person tournaments, if I'm not mistaken.

You are mistaken. The jump is at 9.
>
> Just a thought. For myself, I'd have probably raised 3xBB and pushed on
> any re-raise that didn't put me all-in already, so what do I know?
>
> GH

_______________________________________________________________
Watch Lists, Block Lists, Favorites - http://www.recpoker.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 07:53:49
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Thanks, it sounds like I wasn't as stupid as I felt afterward.

______________________________________________________________________
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com

Date: 07 Dec 2006 07:40:51
From: Bill Ricardi
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Will_gamble wrote:

> Bad playing or just bad luck?

To be brief: A totally valid play, though not the only play. It was bad
luck. Even if you had raised it up, you were going broke on that flop.

Date: 07 Dec 2006 07:37:15
From: Bryan
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Date: 08 Dec 2006 06:53:37
From: ben carr
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

If you raise to 4 bb like in your example you give yourself more
options. The way you played the hand you had no options at all, just get
the cash in and hope to win the pot. If you just make a normal raise you
could fold to a scary situation later in the hand. But that would leave
you pretty shortstacked. Your chip position limits what you can do, what
hand to play, and how you can play those hands. Maybe you could have put
yourself in a better position earlier in the game. Having 11 big blinds
isnt a good spot to be in. It might be better to be a little riskier
just before you got to this spot. You would have either gone broke like
you still did here, or been at that spot in the game with a better
position.

Date: 08 Dec 2006 16:13:32
From: Ian Crorie
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

ben carr wrote:
> If you raise to 4 bb like in your example you give yourself more
> options. The way you played the hand you had no options at all, just get
> the cash in and hope to win the pot.

Options. Is it good to have more options and bad to have none? I'd
have thought having more options would only be good if committing yourself
to one course of action was bad, and it doesn't seem to me that that one
(all-in) *is* bad here.

> If you just make a normal raise you
> could fold to a scary situation later in the hand.

That's an extra option, for sure. Not a good one though.

> But that would leave
> you pretty shortstacked. Your chip position limits what you can do, what
> hand to play, and how you can play those hands. Maybe you could have put
> yourself in a better position earlier in the game. Having 11 big blinds
> isnt a good spot to be in. It might be better to be a little riskier
> just before you got to this spot. You would have either gone broke like
> you still did here, or been at that spot in the game with a better
> position.

This suggests a good generic response to "did I play it ok?" threads:

I'd have played much better poker up till this point, to the extent that
I'd have retired with $5 million in the bank and wouldn't need to be in
this tournament. So no, you played badly.

Date: 07 Dec 2006 07:32:24
From: Ron Dworkin
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Date: 07 Dec 2006 16:55:39
From: Old Wolf
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

XaQ Morphy wrote:
> > The trouble here is that you are giving awesome odds to the opponent.
> > If the big blind is aware of pot odds and plays that game, they will
> > calculate that your 1000 bet (initial pot of 200+400+8*50=1000) means
> > the big blind has to call 600 into a pot of 2000, ie. 3.3 to 1 odds.
> > This is good enough for any 2 cards, even a dominated ace.
> > The raise to 1600 would have only give him 2.1:1 odds so he would
> > fold most trash hands , out of position.
>
> Using that reasoning, you seem to be stating that any BB should call any
> 3xBB raise with any 2 cards at any point in any tourney?

Two differences here: the presence of the ante, and the raiser's range.
Late in the tourney, the ante is basically adding a whole BB to the
pot, and the range of the raiser will be very wide.

Early on, with no ante and a 3xBB raise, then the BB calling odds are
2.2:1, which is not good enough against an average or tight raiser who
will quite often have a pair or have BB dominated. 2.2:1 is not even
good enough for calling with 2 non-dominated lower cards (eg. J9
vs AK) out of position.

Date: 07 Dec 2006 13:52:59
From: Old Wolf
Subject: Re: Tough hand for me, suggestions wanted

Will_gamble wrote:
> Playing in a 180 player SnG last night that is down to 12 players and I am
> 11th in chips with about 9k. Blinds are 400/800 and I really haven't had
> anything to play in a while and am getting concerned about being blinded
> off. I get 10/10 on the button and it is folded around to me. The SB has
> 30k and the bb is 5k and the only person with less chips than me.

Your M is 5 and your effective M is even less because the table is
shorthanded. You're second smallest stack. So you're definitely
playing for all your chips. The only question is whether to shove
now, or whether to make a stop and go play.

If you're not familiar with the stop and go play, this is how it works:
If you go all in and get called by 2 overs, then your opponent gets
5 chances to draw out on you. This is great in a cash game because
you are a slight favourite, but in a tourney you are sometimes looking
to sacrifice returns in order to minimise your chances of going bust.
So if you make a raise, and then jam the flop regardless, then your
opponent can fold and so he has only had 3 chances to draw instead
of 5.

Of course this only works if you have enough chips to put pressure
on the opponent so that he will actually fold the flop when he misses
it.
Say you raise to 2.5K and get called by SB with KQ and the flop is
Axx. You jam your remaining 6.5K (slightly more than a pot bet).
Altho the KQ is getting 2:1 odds to call, he will most likely fold.
However, if he had something like AQ and the flop was Jxx he will
probably call anyway.

Note that your flop raise has to be big, a weak raise just gives
the guy the right odds to call the flop and see if he hits.

My personal preference would be the jam here because sometimes
you will get called by an underpair, or by A-x where x is lower than
your tens, making you a big favourite to double up; and you don't
quite have enough chips to put pressure on anyone.

> My initial thought is to force the BB to fold or risk all his chips with
> maybe one over card. I push and the SB calls immediately and is holding
> AA. I get no help and bust out. This seems to happen a lot to me.

Well, there's 180 players and only 1 can win. This will happen
to a lot of people a lot of the time.

> Here is the delima. Lets say I raise 4 x bb and the SB just calls? How
> can I not get busted on a rainbow 9 high flop? (Which is what happened)
> I guess if reraises I might lay it down,

You can't. Your stack is so short that your only possible game
plan is to double up at least twice. This won't get handed to
you on a platter so you need to take risks against other strong
hands.

You'd get jammed on on that flop by two overcards or 1 pair (or nothing
at all) way more often than by an overpair, so you absolutely have to
call.

TT is the fifth best hand you can get out of 169 cases. If that isn't
good enough for you...