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Date: 12 Dec 2006 14:56:14
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Question for alan
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Alan, I think reviewing the question below that I'm pasting from the other
thread might help you on your way to understanding some of these things.
It's not a trick question in any way, but I'm interested to see your
response...
Here's a question for you. Your son has Qc9c. Flop is Kc5c3c. Let's say
he knows for certain his opponent has exactly the Ac and another card that
doesn't pair the board (that isn't a club, we'll say 9h for this example).
Based on this information what % of the time will another club hit the
turn?
Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 16:02:25
From: alan
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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Morphy, thanks for taking the time to follow up.
The issue, as I see it, isn't the odds of another club coming up but of
the bet size.
I think my son could have accomplished the same thing with a smaller
bet, rather than going all in.
In my brief playing time, I have seen strange things happen too often
at poker.
The latest came yesterday:
I have 3-3. I call the big blind of $5 and no one raises. There are
three players. And the flop comes 9-3-7 (rainbow). The BB raises to
$20 and I call, since I have a set. The turn is a Q.
The BB bets $25. I call. The other player folds. So, two of us in
the hand.
The turn and the river are both unrelated cards -- there is no straight
and no flush possible.
The BB bets again, $25 and I call.
We turn over our cards: I show my set of threes, he shows a set of
sevens.
You can never expect something like that, right? All I can say is
thank goodness I didnt go all-in with my set of threes, even though
there was no straight or flush possible on the board. I was cautious,
just calling the bets of the BB who, in fact, had a higher set.
Was I wrong? Certainly if I had pushed all in, I doubt he would have
folded.
I think my caution was best-- and it's not because I didnt have the
winning hand, but because there is the risk that someone would have a
better hand.
Please advise.
thanks.
XaQ Morphy wrote:
> Alan, I think reviewing the question below that I'm pasting from the other
> thread might help you on your way to understanding some of these things.
> It's not a trick question in any way, but I'm interested to see your
> response...
>
> Here's a question for you. Your son has Qc9c. Flop is Kc5c3c. Let's say
> he knows for certain his opponent has exactly the Ac and another card that
> doesn't pair the board (that isn't a club, we'll say 9h for this example).
>
> Based on this information what % of the time will another club hit the
> turn?
>
> Morphy
> http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com
>
> ----
> * kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com
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Date: 13 Dec
From: Super Steamer
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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On Dec 12 2006 4:02 PM, alan wrote:
> Morphy, thanks for taking the time to follow up.
>
> The issue, as I see it, isn't the odds of another club coming up but of
> the bet size.
>
> I think my son could have accomplished the same thing with a smaller
> bet, rather than going all in.
>
What do you mean accomplish the same thing? Get 2 to 1 on all your chips as a
71% favorite? (which ignores what the other player had, only figuring your 2
clubs, and the other players AcXo) No, you can't mean that, because he doesn't
accomplish that unless he is all in on the flop.
Actually, I agree that all in on the flop is not the highest ev play if you get
the same 2 callers.
Bet 65 on the flop and all in on the turn if the board doesn't pair and a club
doesn't hit will net you far higher ev with much lower variance, assuming the
same 2 callers, and slightly higher ev with much lower variance if only the
short stack calls.
And much higher ev too, if more people call the flop bet.
But your ev will most likely go way down if you only bet 30 on the flop, because
it will be much harder to get anybody all in on the turn.
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Date: 13 Dec
From: Super Steamer
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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On Dec 12 2006 5:13 PM, Super Steamer wrote:
>
>
>
> On Dec 12 2006 4:02 PM, alan wrote:
>
> > Morphy, thanks for taking the time to follow up.
> >
> > The issue, as I see it, isn't the odds of another club coming up but of
> > the bet size.
> >
> > I think my son could have accomplished the same thing with a smaller
> > bet, rather than going all in.
> >
> What do you mean accomplish the same thing? Get 2 to 1 on all your chips as a
> 71% favorite? (which ignores what the other player had, only figuring your 2
> clubs, and the other players AcXo) No, you can't mean that, because he
> doesn't
> accomplish that unless he is all in on the flop.
>
> Actually, I agree that all in on the flop is not the highest ev play if you
> get
> the same 2 callers.
>
> Bet 65 on the flop and all in on the turn if the board doesn't pair and a club
> doesn't hit will net you far higher ev with much lower variance, assuming the
> same 2 callers, and slightly higher ev with much lower variance if only the
> short stack calls.
That is not correct, sorry, brain fart, your overall ev will be higher if they
both call, but not if only the short stack calls. duh.
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Date: 13 Dec 2006 13:18:38
From: alan
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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Hey... you stole my name.
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Date: 13 Dec 2006 13:48:52
From: Alan Gilbert aka brewmaster
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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On Dec 13 2006 1:18 PM, alan wrote:
> Hey... you stole my name.
Don't tell me there are three of us now.
------
brewmaster at brewcam dot com
"Once in awhile you can get shown the light in the strangest of places if
you look at it right" -RH
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Date: 13 Dec 2006 12:41:56
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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> Morphy, thanks for taking the time to follow up.
>
> The issue, as I see it, isn't the odds of another club coming up but of
> the bet size.
>
> I think my son could have accomplished the same thing with a smaller
> bet, rather than going all in.
Alan, before I say this, please understand that I'm not saying this in an
insulting way at all. The real issue is that you don't understand the
odds to make a hand (figuring out how many outs you have and calculating
the percentage to make the hand based on that), nor what pot odds are.
These are two crucial parts to poker. As a resource, I recommend picking
up Lee Jones' Winning Low Limit Holdem book. It's geared more towards
limit holdem play, but there are some very good concepts that are
explained very well. I recommend this book to every player who is looking
to learn more about the game, regardless of the game type they decide to
play.
At the point where your son bet, he was a very big favorite to all hands
but one, which would have been the Ac with another club. He had 2 clubs,
there were 3 clubs on the board, and if he assumes his opponent has the
Ac, that means that 6 clubs are accounted for, and there are 7 left in the
deck. Of the 52 cards in the deck, we know about 6 of them. Of those 46,
39 don't help the opponent and 7 do. The odds are 39:7, or just under
5.6:1 against making the hand on the next card, or just over 15% to hit
the club. Since he bet all-in, his opponent gets a shot at both the turn
and river cards for the same price, so he is about 30% to hit a club on
the turn or river. That means your son went in as a 70/30 favorite. This
is a HUGE edge in poker. Any pro would get his chips in as a 70/30
favorite in any cash game situation without a second thought.
Those are just odds to make the hand. Pot odds take into consideration
what is in the pot vs. what needs to be called, and comparing those to the
odds of a hand being good vs. what the hand is up against. I won't go
into detail here because so many authors have done a much better job
describing pot odds than I could ever dream of doing.
Hope this helps.
Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com
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Date: 14 Dec 2006 02:56:44
From: Randy Hudson
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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In article <k55654xbob.ln2@recgroups.com >,
XaQ Morphy <a1c5905@webnntp.invalid > wrote:
> Since he bet all-in, his opponent gets a shot at both the turn
> and river cards for the same price, so he is about 30% to hit a club on
> the turn or river. That means your son went in as a 70/30 favorite. This
> is a HUGE edge in poker. Any pro would get his chips in as a 70/30
> favorite in any cash game situation without a second thought.
If he puts chips in as 70-30 favorite, when he could have had a 75-25 edge
by playing better, then he misplayed it.
Who can get away on the turn? Who can get away on the river? If, holding a
made flush, he is sure he could get away on the turn if another club comes,
then he wants to leave the maximum amount unbet that his opponent can't get
away from on the turn. That way, he loses less if the flush card does
indeed come on the turn, but wins or loses the same if one doesn't.
--
Randy Hudson
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Date: 13 Dec 2006 19:18:43
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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> If he puts chips in as 70-30 favorite, when he could have had a 75-25 edge
> by playing better, then he misplayed it.
>
> Who can get away on the turn? Who can get away on the river? If, holding a
> made flush, he is sure he could get away on the turn if another club comes,
> then he wants to leave the maximum amount unbet that his opponent can't get
> away from on the turn. That way, he loses less if the flush card does
> indeed come on the turn, but wins or loses the same if one doesn't.
While this may be true, the point of my post was to show alan that he
likely needs to work on odds and pot odds calculations, rather than
discuss the actual hand.
Thing is, if you can get your opponent to call his stack away as a 70/30
dog, you should take it every time.
Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com
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Date: 14 Dec
From: Super Steamer
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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On Dec 13 2006 7:18 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
> > If he puts chips in as 70-30 favorite, when he could have had a 75-25 edge
> > by playing better, then he misplayed it.
> >
> > Who can get away on the turn? Who can get away on the river? If, holding a
> > made flush, he is sure he could get away on the turn if another club comes,
> > then he wants to leave the maximum amount unbet that his opponent can't get
> > away from on the turn. That way, he loses less if the flush card does
> > indeed come on the turn, but wins or loses the same if one doesn't.
>
> While this may be true, the point of my post was to show alan that he
> likely needs to work on odds and pot odds calculations, rather than
> discuss the actual hand.
>
> Thing is, if you can get your opponent to call his stack away as a 70/30
> dog, you should take it every time.
>
> Morphy
> http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com/
That one time that he turns a club, could be the one time that knocks me out
of a tourney (or stacks me off in a cash game), if I can hold back some chips
that I can punish him with on the turn, then I am getiing the rest of my chips
in as an 84% favorite. Of course you can't be like Alan and wait for the river,
because nobody is real likely to call anything on the river unless you're beat.
It is best for your opponent to get all in now, because then you can't fold the
turn and save any chips if a club turns. So, while you should obviously be
happy to call him if he raises you all in on the flop, you should be even
happier if he doesn't. You certainly want to bet enough to tie him to the pot
though.
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Date: 14 Dec
From: Super Steamer
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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On Dec 13 2006 7:41 PM, Super Steamer wrote:
>
> It is best for your opponent to get all in now, because then you can't fold
> the
> turn and save any chips if a club turns.
Actually "best" for my opponent might be to fold depending on the number of
players calling my flop bet, but regardless, it is better for him to be all in
now, than on the turn.
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Date: 14 Dec
From: Super Steamer
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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On Dec 13 2006 6:56 PM, Randy Hudson wrote:
> In article ,
> XaQ Morphy wrote:
>
> > Since he bet all-in, his opponent gets a shot at both the turn
> > and river cards for the same price, so he is about 30% to hit a club on
> > the turn or river. That means your son went in as a 70/30 favorite. This
> > is a HUGE edge in poker. Any pro would get his chips in as a 70/30
> > favorite in any cash game situation without a second thought.
>
> If he puts chips in as 70-30 favorite, when he could have had a 75-25 edge
> by playing better, then he misplayed it.
>
> Who can get away on the turn? Who can get away on the river? If, holding a
> made flush, he is sure he could get away on the turn if another club comes,
> then he wants to leave the maximum amount unbet that his opponent can't get
> away from on the turn. That way, he loses less if the flush card does
> indeed come on the turn, but wins or loses the same if one doesn't.
>
> --
> Randy Hudson
Exactly, it is better for his opponent to get all in right now on the flop, than
to have to call a turn bet as a much bigger dog, and to not win the extra chips
if a club comes on the turn.
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Date: 12 Dec 2006 15:19:44
From: Alan Gilbert aka brewmaster
Subject: Re: Question for alan
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On Dec 12 2006 2:56 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
> Alan, I think reviewing the question below that I'm pasting from the other
> thread might help you on your way to understanding some of these things.
> It's not a trick question in any way, but I'm interested to see your
> response...
>
> Here's a question for you. Your son has Qc9c. Flop is Kc5c3c. Let's say
> he knows for certain his opponent has exactly the Ac and another card that
> doesn't pair the board (that isn't a club, we'll say 9h for this example).
>
> Based on this information what % of the time will another club hit the
> turn?
>
> Morphy
> http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com
15% (cause you have 7 outs for a club, and 7 outs is 15% for each card
[turn and river], or 30% to hit by the river)? Oh wait, that was meant
for the other alan wasn't it.
------
brewmaster at brewcam dot com
"Once in awhile you can get shown the light in the strangest of places if
you look at it right" -RH
------
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