Date: 30 Nov 2006 20:32:34
From: ChunkShuffle
Subject: NFL Week 13 Picks and Previews
|
Hello everyone,
My name is Louis Zinman, I’m 24, and I’m an aspiring sports writer trying
to crack into the business. To that end, I write up a preview every week
for the coming Sunday’s NFL action and submit them to local papers,
national publications, and of course, internet postboards. If anyone has
any feedback or commentary or criticism, be it of my choices, my
presentation, my writing style, I sure would appreciate it. If you would
like to receive a copy of the newsletter each week directly to your mail
box, or you just have something in particular you thought about the piece,
shoot me an e-mail at lzinman44@hotmail.com and I’ll be happy to reply.
Also, my friend and I are putting together a website where we will be
posting these write ups, both pro and college, as well as a whole lot of
opinion pieces, editorials, previews, reviews, and commentaries on the
sports universe. If this sounds like a website you’d be interested in
visiting, please e-mail me at the above address and I’ll be sure to
contact you when the site is up and running.
Thanks to everyone who takes the time to read it, even without feedback.
Enjoy the picks.
-Lou-
NFL WEEK 13 PICKS AND PREVIEWS
by Louis Zinman
Record:
Last Week: 11-5
Season Total: 83-66-9(No Picks in Week One)
Over/Under:
Last Week: 7-9
Season Total: 70-86-2(No Picks in Week One)
Mortal Locks:
Last Week: 2-1
Season Total: 17-12-1(Started Week 3)
MORTAL LOCKS FOR WEEK 13
STEELERS MINUS 7 vs. Buccaneers
CHARGERS MINUS 6 at Bills
JETS MINUS 1 at Packers
Ah, December is upon us…The cold winter air, the crisp snowfall, and of
course late season football. Week 13 is here, and we have a lineup
featuring six home underdogs, only one double digit spread, and quite a
few games with playoff implications. We had a solid week last week as the
teams are starting to come into focus, and we’ll see if the run of success
continues. Enjoy this week’s picks.
VIKINGS (+9) at BEARS O/U=36
A gritty and nasty rivalry will be the back drop as the Vikings look to
avenge their loss earlier this season when they head to Soldier Field to
take on the Bears. Chicago is coming off of a tough loss up in New
England, a game which saw Chicago force five Patriot turnovers and Rex
Grossman turn it over 4 times himself. The Bears have turned the ball
over 24 times this season, with a staggering 16 of them in three games.
(Miami, Arizona, New England) When they don’t turn the ball over and give
opposing offenses a short field, Chicago is as tough to beat as anyone in
football, and against an offense as impotent as Minny’s, the Bears defense
has a chance to truly dominate this week at home.
Minnesota’s lone chance of emerging victorious this week rests in shutting
down the run, which they’ve been better at than anyone in football this
year, and placing the onus on Grossman to beat them through the air.
Defending Grossman successfully depends on pressure, forcing him into bad
throws and turnovers. Offensively, the Vikings MUST run the ball between
the tackles, the one area where the Bears have shown some vulnerability.
Chester Taylor, the NFL’s fifth leading rusher, will need to make
absolutely certain to hang onto the ball when he enters the pile as the
Bears have gained a reputation for standing up ball carriers and going for
the ball.
Final Verdict: I’m a big believer in good teams coming off of a loss and
playing at home, and the Bears are just that. Chicago is out to make a
statement in what will be an icy, windy, bitter day, and I think they’ll
do just that. Give me the Bears minus 9, and the under in a defensive
clash.
BUCCANEERS (+7) at STEELERS O/U=41
A couple teams coming in off of embarrassing losses take each other on as
the 4-7 Steelers host the 3-8 Buccaneers. It may have been the worst day
of young Ben Roethlisberger’s career last week as Baltimore sacked him 9
times, including a punishing blow by Ravens LB Bart Scott that Big Ben
credited as the hardest hit he’s ever received. The team looks to turn it
around this week as they face the league’s worst pass rush. Many people
claim that the Steelers have lost their identity as a power running, power
defense type of team, and this is the reason for their struggles. As has
been pointed out numerous times in this column, Pittsburgh’s problems are
the result of underwhelming talent at the skill positions and terrible
blocking up front by the offensive line. The defense should have a
relatively easy day against the punchless Tampa offense as the champs play
out the string.
Personally, I don’t understand how Jon Gruden keeps sending Bruce
Gradkowski out there every week. Sure Gradkowski doesn’t turn the ball
over (only six interceptions this year), but this offense stinks. He
averages a distasteful 5.1 yards per attempt, he’s only completing 54% of
his passes, and most importantly the team simply doesn’t score. While
neither Tim Rattay nor Luke McCown will be confused with Peyton Manning, I
have to believe that they’d give Tampa a better chance to score points.
RB Cadillac Williams continues to be the focal point of the offense while
Joey Galloway is the only receiving threat worthy of any actual attention
from defenses.
Final Verdict: As awful as Pittsburgh looked last week, and they looked
awful, I just can’t see how they don’t come out and blow the doors off of
the Bucs this week. It’s a Mortal Lock that the Steelers take it by more
than seven, and the under is where it’ll fall.
CARDINALS (+6.5) at RAMS O/U=46.5
The bottom two teams in the NFC West are our next contestants as the 2-9
Cardinals enter the RCA Dome to take on the 5-6 Rams. Following an ugly
five game losing streak, the Rams bounced back last week to come back and
overtake the Niners 20-17. At the center of the victory was RB Steven
Jackson, who not only carried 23 times for 121 yards, but also caught 9
passes for another 71 yards and converted two critical 4th-and-1’s on the
Rams game winning drive. The Rams have been awful against the run this
year, a trend which Frank Gore continued last week, but Edgerrin James and
the Cardinals have shown little inclination to establish any kind of big
time running game.
Matt Leinart had somewhat of a coming out party last week, albeit in a
losing effort, as he went 31-51 for 405 yards, focusing the bulk of his
efforts of his two superstar wide outs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.
The question now becomes has coach Dennis Green abandoned any hope of
developing a rushing attack behind this offensive line and instead decided
that his best chances for victory lie in simply airing it out and letting
his best players make plays? Tough to say, but we will get our answer
this week against a Rams team that is as vulnerable as any on the ground.
Final Verdict: With their thrilling win last week, and the collapse of the
Giants, the Rams recognize that the playoffs are still very much within
their reach, and I expect them to come out and play like it this week.
Give the Rams minus six and a half, and much like their Week 3 contest,
give me the under with a number based more on reputation than production.
COLTS (-7.5) at TITANS O/U=47.5
It’s an AFC South showdown as the 10-1 Colts head into Tennessee to face
the high flying Titans. It’s hard to imagine a team coming into a game
feeling better than the Titans following last week’s historic comeback
against the Giants. What’s more, Tennessee will enter this contest with
the comfort of knowing that they played the Colts tight up in Indy. The
Colts remain a formidable offensive unit, but Tennessee will lean on RB
Travis Henry, who burst onto the scene initially this season in that first
Colts game. And of course, QB Vince Young, who had himself a Rose Bowl
flashback last week in the fourth quarter, will need to utilize his
athletic ability and creativity to make plays against the division leaders.
Indy bounced back nicely last week in one of the easiest games to call all
season against the Eagles. Peyton Manning was cool and efficient as usual
last week, but drastically understated as the spotlight belonged to rookie
tailback Joseph Addai and his 4 TD runs. Don’t be surprised to see the
focus shift a little bit back to the passing game as Manning tries to keep
his bevy of receivers happy, but Addai and fellow RB Dominic Rhodes will
get carries if only to give Indy’s defense time on the sideline. The
Colts have been extremely vulnerable to runners like Henry this year, guys
who have the burst to explode through the line and into the second level,
and the power to fight through arm tackles.
Final Verdict: This is the Colts game to lose, and I don’t think they
will, but few teams have been as plucky as the Titans this season; just
ask the Giants. With a special teamer like Pacman Jones available,
Tennessee should be able to keep this one close, so give me the Titans
plus seven and a half, and with the running attack shortening the game, I
love the under on a huge number.
JAGUARS (Pick Em) at DOLPHINS O/U=35.5
Playing their second straight AFC East opponent on the road, the 6-5
Jaguars stay in state to battle the 5-6 Miami Dolphins. After their awful
1-6 start, Miami has reeled off four wins in a row to thrust themselves
into the periphery of the playoff hunt. While much has been made of Joey
Harrington’s play during this stretch, Jason Taylor and the defense have
been the true driving force. Though burdened by a flat out awful
secondary, Miami’s deep and talented front seven have managed to hold
opposing teams to a league best 4.4 yards per play, and have accumulated
34 sacks, 4th in the league. Offensively, the Dolphins will be without
starting RB Ronnie Brown, sidelined with a broken left hand suffered in
the Thanksgiving Day victory. The carries will fall to backup Sammy
Morris, who will face the difficult task of fighting his way through
Jacksonville’s All-Pro pair of defensive tackles.
The Jaguars have been an extremely inconsistent bunch this season,
particularly when on the road. Due to the short distance traveled, I’m
not sure how much that will play into it this week, but the match ups they
face this week will pose problems. Jacksonville’s game plan on offense
continues to center around a running game that can attack with veteran
Fred Taylor or rookie Maurice Jones-Drew, but Miami’s run defense should
be able to shut that down this week. For the Jaguars to enjoy greater
results, it would be in their best interest to utilize their group of
tall, fast wide receivers, particularly against such a poor group of
defenders as they face this week. Defensively, the Jags continue to enjoy
a sterling reputation, but the losses of Mike Peterson and Donovin Darius
have severely weakened the middle of the defense and opened up holes for
opposing offenses.
Final Verdict: With Indianapolis coming to Jacksonville next week, could
the Jags get caught looking past the 5-6 ‘Phins? Probably not, but I
think the Jags are in a tough spot this week against a team geared to shut
down their strengths. Look for Harrington to put up 235 yards, and give
me Miami and the under.
49ERS (+7) at SAINTS O/U=45.5
The NFL’s most heartwarming story takes on one of its most surprising as
the 7-4 Saints play host to the 5-6 49ers. A preseason pick to battle for
the #1 draft pick, the Niners have played extremely well under second year
coach Mike Nolan, led on defense by young LB Manny Lawson and Brandon
Moore. At the forefront of San Francisco’s emergence has been tailback
Frank Gore, a column favorite since day one who has leapt to second in the
league in rushing. Gore has demonstrated a tantalizing blend of power and
speed on his reconstructed knees, and the threat he poses has allowed Alex
Smith to play much better. The return of 6th overall pick Vernon Davis
will give Smith a new and dynamic weapon through the air.
New Orleans has turned into a smaller scale version of the Colts, tons of
passing yardage, lots of points, and awful run defense. New Orleans ranks
4th from the bottom in the league in run defense, and as such they can
expect to have plenty of Frank Gore to deal with on Sunday. Offensively,
not even the absence of his new favorite target could slow down Drew
Brees, who put up his fifth consecutive 300 yard passing game. Marques
Colston is questionable for the Niners game with his sprained ankle, but
even without him, Brees will be able to get the ball to Devery Henderson,
Terrance Copper, Joe Horn, and Reggie Bush all over the field.
Final Verdict: I’m actually very excited to watch this game, to see how
the young S.F. defense deals with the big play Saints, and how the Saints
deal with Gore. When it’s all said and done, I think the Saints will pull
it out to get down to Dallas next week at 8-4, but I think the Niners keep
it close. Give me San Francisco at plus seven, and the over in a game
chock full of offensive playmakers.
FALCONS (+1) at REDSKINS O/U=38.5
It’s been a rough week down in Atlanta following the wide receivers’
meltdown on the field, and Michael Vick’s meltdown off of it, and they
look to rebound as they head into Washington to take on the Redskins. The
Redskins have struggled this year, but have played better at home, with
wins over Dallas and Carolina. New quarterback Jason Campbell has led his
team to 17 points in each of his first two games, but he’ll likely need
more than that this week if he hopes to enjoy his first two game winning
streak. Washington will face the generally impossible task of defending
Vick, though of more concern will be the multi faceted running game
Atlanta brings.
The Falcons played a truly confounding game last week in that they rolled
up 281 yards rushing and didn’t turn the ball over, the kind of numbers
that historically have led to victory in the NFL. The problem, once
again, was the passing game, though the culprit was different this time.
While there have been few critics more vocal of Michael Vick the passer
than yours truly, Vick played a stellar game last week against New
Orleans. At some point, this Falcons group of wide outs might want to
consider living up to their first round billing and actually catch the
ball. John Abraham, who has missed the bulk of the season with a groin
injury, needs to step up and play a huge game against the young Campbell
if Atlanta wants to salvage its dwindling playoff hopes.
Final Verdict: It’s hard to give the Falcons credit for anything nowadays,
but this is a very favorable matchup for them, despite the rough
conditions. Give me Atlanta at plus one to extend the drama of their
season one more week, and with neither team able to pass the ball much, I
like the under.
CHIEFS (-5) at BROWNS O/U=36
The league’s leading rusher leads his team into Cleveland to take on the
league’s most battered quarterback as Larry Johnson and the Chiefs take on
Charlie Frye and the Browns. Stopping to look at his last six games, you
come to truly realize how ridiculously good, and consistent, Larry Johnson
is. He’s managed to put up 5 100 yard games in 6 weeks, four of those on
the other side of 150. He carries the ball 30 times a game, he never
fumbles, and most importantly, he gets into the end zone. With Trent
Green and Tony Gonzalez still recovering from injuries, and with snow and
rain in the forecast, don’t expect much of a change in offensive
philosophy this week from Herman Edwards.
Last week was ugly in Cleveland, a 30-0 demolition by the Bengals in which
WR Braylon Edwards, a fast emerging motor mouth, was seen on the sidelines
berating QB Charlie Frye. Frye has been sacked 43 times this season, the
most in the NFL, and that inability to remain upright has drastically
hindered his ability to put the ball in the hands of Edwards and Kellen
Winslow. Cleveland also isn’t helped by their horrific rushing game,
third worst in football, which has been hampered by lingering injuries to
Reuben Droughns and a lack of depth at the position. Defensively, the
Browns have to take advantage of Kansas City’s vanilla attack by putting
nine guys in the box and letting surprisingly good corners Leigh Bodden
and Daven Holly match up on the Chiefs’ mediocre wide receivers.
Final Verdict: It may sound silly, but I think that these are two very
similar teams separated mainly by the greatness of Larry Johnson.
Cleveland is younger, less experienced, and certainly less accomplished,
but I think they play hard for Crennel and are embarrassed about last
week. The Chiefs will probably win, but I like the Browns getting five,
and in ugly, snowy Cleveland, I love the under.
LIONS (+13.5) at PATRIOTS O/U=42
After their demoralizing Thanksgiving loss to Miami, the 2-9 Lions limp
into Foxboro to face the 8-3 Patriots. With a tough divisional road game
looming next week in Miami, some would think the Pats are vulnerable to a
trap game scenario this week against Detroit, but then they wouldn’t be
the Pats. New England overcame 5 turnovers last week against a tough
Chicago team, and no doubt Bill Belichick will be looking to clean up the
mistakes this week against the Lions. Detroit has shown little ability to
play any kind of sustained defense, and with the playmakers available to
New England on offense, it could be a long day for Rod Marinelli’s D.
The Lions are a very frustrating team, particularly on offense where WR
Roy Williams seems alone in his quest to carry this team. Kevin Jones,
who sat out against the Dolphins, will be back this week, but it’s
unlikely that he’ll have a breakout game against New England’s front
seven, even with the gruesome injury to LB Junior Seau. Detroit will have
to try and get the ball to Williams, clearly the best player on the team,
and hope that his speed and athleticism can generate big plays against a
disciplined Patriot defense.
Final Verdict: There’s just not much to say about this mismatch. Give me
the Pats to cover the thirteen and a half in a romp, and the over in a big
day for Brady and his offense.
CHARGERS (-6) at BILLS O/U=43.5
The season’s MVP thus far heads up to northern New York as the Chargers
visit the Bills. San Diego sits at 9-2, two games clear of the division
as they welcome back stud LB Shawne Merriman from a four game suspension
and unleash LaDainian Tomlinson on a run defense giving up nearly five
yards a carry. There will be some concern about San Diego’s performance
away from balmy California, particularly given that the forecast in
Buffalo is calling for bitter cold and even snow showers. This team is as
balanced and explosive as any in the league on offense, and with LT2 and
Antonio Gates supplying potent red zone weaponry, I don’t think the
weather will be a problem.
Buffalo has won three of four since coming out of the bye, and most
encouraging has been the play of enigmatic QB J.P. Losman. Losman
continues to be scattered with his throws, but he’s a gutsy guy who seems
like he is capable of making a big throw under pressure. Like any young
quarterback, Losman’s biggest problem is his spotty decision making, but
it seems that Dick Jauron and his staff have modified the game plan enough
to try and minimize those mistakes. RB Willis McGahee impresses me every
week with his ability to gain the tough yards, carrying the load despite
ribs that, if not still broken, have to be extremely sore. The Bills will
have to account for Merriman all day long, and take advantage of the speed
in their receiving corps.
Final Verdict: Buffalo has played tough, tight games lately, and they seem
to be headed in the right direction. That said, Tomlinson is on another
planet right now, and Merriman will be anxious to cram a month of
intensity into this game in preparation for home games against Denver and
K.C. The Chargers are a Mortal Lock at minus 6, and the slushy weather
helps hold it under.
JETS (-1) at PACKERS O/U=42.5
The Frozen Tundra at Lambeau Field will hopefully make its first
appearance of the season as the Jets travel up north to take on the
Packers. The bye week was huge for the Jets, not so much for the offense,
but much more so because after that week off, their defense has played
much better football. They have covered their gaps better, tackled
better, covered better, and against a Green Bay team that has shown itself
prone to turning the ball over, these will be valuable improvements.
Offensively, Chad Pennington shouldn’t find much difficulty moving the
ball against a porous Green bay secondary so long as he can avoid dumb
throws and interceptions.
Though they played well in prime time last week against Seattle, it’s very
clear what the Packers are. Brett Favre, without any hit of apology,
possesses the same gunslinger, risk taking mentality which has defined his
career, but the tools vital to making those risks pay off no longer
surround him. With a young and active secondary featuring safety Kerry
Rhodes, Favre must do a better job of making decisions if the Packers are
to have a chance to defend their home turf on Sunday. The defense is
highlighted by DE Aaron Kampman, an under the radar workhorse who plays
hard from whistle to whistle, and they will need to apply pressure on
Pennington to prevent him from getting into any kind of rhythm.
Final Verdict: Though they are 4-7 and led by a first ballot Hall of
Famer, I just don’t think the Packers are very good. Conversely, the Jets
have been a well coached and disciplined bunch all season, and they’ve
been very consistent in the effort and preparation they show each week. I
love the Jets laying a point here, enough to make it a Mortal Lock, and
the under is helped out by a late Favre interception.
COWBOYS (-3.5) at GIANTS O/U=44
It’s the marquee game of the week as NFC East rivals New York and Dallas
face off at the Meadowlands amidst a flurry of media activity. The story
this week has been the supposed sniping of Plaxico Burress by injured
teammate Michael Strahan on a New York radio station, and Strahan’s
subsequent tongue lashing to members of the media in front of his locker.
While it may have made interesting television, will it have an impact on
this Sunday’s game? I personally think that it’s a symptom rather than a
cause, and I think the Giants are in trouble here following last week’s
unfathomable collapse in Tennessee. Strahan, despite the ridiculous
amount of coverage that has been devoted to him, won’t be on the field
Sunday, and several other members of the defense remain questionable. QB
Eli Manning seems to regress more and more each week, but will coach Tom
Coughlin be able to turn the reins of the offense over to Tiki Barber and
rapidly improving power back Brandon Jacobs? The absence of Luke
Petitgout on the left side of New York’s line will lead to serious
problems in protection from the blitzing DeMarcus Ware. New York’s best
chances for success rest in establishing a running game, and in trying to
get TE Jeremy Shockey matched up with Cowboys safety Roy Williams, a
fierce hitter and imposing presence, but substandard in coverage.
Dallas isn’t without storylines itself, with the ever-present Terrell
Owens circus just one ill advised comment away from taking center stage,
the release of K Mike Vanderjagt, and of course the latest QB to come from
nowhere Tony Romo. Since taking over the starting job from Drew Bledsoe
at halftime of the first contest between these two teams, Romo has done
precious little wrong, going 4-1 as a starter and taking over the NFL lead
in passer rating. Romo’s mobility edge over Bledsoe has allowed TE Jason
Witten to once again become an important contributor on offense, and Romo
has also done a good job keeping his two prime wide outs happy. Most
importantly for coach Bill Parcells has been Romo’s ability to avoid
turning the ball over, with only two interceptions and a fumble lost in
his last five games. Julius Jones has been effective moving the chains,
and Marion Barber III has proven to be a valuable commodity on the goal
line as both rusher and receiver. The Cowboy defense has also benefited
from the switch, now playing with the confidence of knowing that they can
take chances, take risks without the fear of losing a 10-7 affair. Dallas
will look to pressure Eli early, maximizing on the discomfort and
uncertainty that Manning is clearly feeling right now and allowing Romo
and his guys to jump out to an early lead.
Final Verdict: A lot has been made about who said what about who in the
Giants locker room, but what seems to have been forgotten is that if they
don’t blow a 21-0 fourth quarter lead to the Titans, no one would be
saying anything. The Cowboys are healthier, more consistent, and in far
better spirits. Give me the Cowboys minus three and a half, and in a
crisp but clear New York afternoon, look for the points to fly over 44.
TEXANS (+3) at RAIDERS O/U=36.5
In what is unquestionably the least palatable game of the week, the 3-8
Texans head out west to take on the 2-9 Raiders. It has been yet another
week of turmoil in Oakland, highlighted this week by coach Art Shell’s
assertion that a member of the team’s staff is undermining the coaching
staff. Truth be told, who cares. The Raiders don’t lose games because
some suit in the office is talking trash to some suit in another team’s
office. They lose because their offense is absolutely terrible, incapable
of pass blocking, running the ball, or completing a pass. The defense
continues to work hard every week, but those guys alone won’t overcome the
holes dug by the offense.
Houston continues to stink on the road, as another ugly loss last week in
New York showed. Watching the Texans for the past few weeks with some
interest, I have come to see just how stupid it was for Houston to pass on
Reggie Bush, because this offense has some legitimate talent. David Carr
is an accurate passer, and with Andre Johnson, Eric Moulds, and rookie TE
Owen Daniels, he isn’t short on targets, but with the preseason injury to
RB Domanick Davis, the team has lacked any semblance of balance. Adding
to the turmoil is a defense that isn’t very good when healthy, and now
faces the added obstacle of being banged up.
Final Verdict: This game is intriguing because it pits one of the worst
offenses I’ve ever seen against an equally terrible defense. Generally in
contests like this, I side with the better defensive unit, but generally
that defense doesn’t have the Raiders offense representing it. Give me
the Texans in an upset, and the under in a tight, if unwatchable, game.
SEAHAWKS (+3) at BRONCOS O/U=39.5
The NFL debut of Jay Cutler will be the focus as the 7-4 Seahawks travel
to Mile High to take on the 7-4 Broncos. Much has been made of coach Mike
Shanahan’s move from Jake Plummer to Cutler, the majority of the responses
positive. What many people seem to forget is that Denver’s offensive
line, already without starting tackle Matt Lepsis, isn’t designed to block
for a classic drop back passer. They are a small, mobile unit that excels
at run blocking, and their ability to simply drop back and form a pocket
for the rookie is seriously in question. In addition, this notion that
Cutler is going to step in with some otherworldly grasp of Shanahan’s
playbook and catapult Denver’s offense to elite status is ridiculous.
Cutler is a rookie, and a rookie quarterback at that. I think Cutler is
clearly a talented young man, and he may well have a bright future, but to
ask a guy to step in and basically rescue the playoff aspirations of an
organization seems unreasonable to me.
Poor Matt Hasselbeck. He finally gets back onto the field following his
sprained knee, and promptly breaks a bone in his left, non-throwing, hand.
Now he heads into Denver to face a formidable defense in one of
football’s truly difficult home fields. Seattle will likely turn to their
tried and true formula of having Hasselbeck simply turn around and hand
the ball off to Shaun Alexander, a strategy which has shown dividends
against Denver’s defense for other teams. Denver has, in the Indianapolis
game particularly, also shown a weakness against spread offenses such as
the one that Seattle is capable of putting on the field with their
collection of wide outs. Defensively, Seattle is completely healthy, and
will look to disrupt and confuse Denver’s rookie signal caller.
Final Verdict: I feel like I’ve seen the Broncos on primetime every other
week since the season started, but for the first time there is some juice
surrounding their offense. Cutler may have great things in his future,
but I don’t think it’s going to start this week. In an upset special,
give the Seahawks to win, and the under in a game featuring the running
game.
PANTHERS (-3) at EAGLES O/U=37.5
Monday night brings us a popular preseason Super Bowl pick and a team
reeling from the loss of their leader as the 6-5 Carolina Panthers hook up
with the 4-7 Eagles at the Linc. The Panthers are about as infuriating a
team as the NFL has to offer this year, evidenced perfectly by their head
scratching loss last week to the Redskins. Much like their opponents this
week, Carolina has yet to find a consistent running game this season, a
fact made more confounding by the fact that coach John Fox has both
DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams at his disposal in the backfield.
Without the running attack, the Panthers too often find themselves in 3rd
and long situations, and QB Jake Delhomme has made a habit of making ill
advised throws in an attempt to find his stud WR Steve Smith.
Defensively, there remain precious few talents in football as diverse and
explosive as DE Julius Peppers, but Carolina has been unable to find help
for Peppers in pressuring the quarterback.
Last week was rough for Philly, their first game since Donovan McNabb’s
devastating knee injury, as they traveled out to Indianapolis and got
their doors blown off by the Colts. QB Jeff Garcia looked overmatched and
over the hill as he tried to command McNabb’s offense, and that isn’t
likely to be any different this week against the Cats. Brian Westbrook
had a big game, but I question his ability to carry a big load week to
week and remain healthy, so Philadelphia is faced with a tough task
putting points on the board. The defense has also struggled, the
trademark exotic blitz packages of Jimmy Johnson’s defense no longer doing
an effective job of forcing turnovers and confusing offenses.
Final Verdict: Though they’ve been wildly inconsistent and nearly
impossible to figure out, I just can’t see Carolina losing this game when
the playoffs are still very much within their grasp. The Eagles are a
broken team, and I’m not sure if they manage to win again this season.
Give me Carolina minus three, and the over in a game where the number
seems low for the talent on the field.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the preceding text are
solely those of Louis J. Zinman and in no way constitute a guarantee of
accuracy nor imply responsibility for any wagers placed. All lines are
accurate as of the Thursday prior to Sunday's game day
----
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com
|
