Help me out with this Bellagio river card

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Date: 20 Dec
From: Kincaid
Subject: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

I've been playing TAG in this game and have doubled my stack twice showing a
set once and AA all-in PF the second time.

A new player to my left has just sat down. He seems tight and moderately
aggressive. I haven't been playing a lot of pots. I've seen him play one with
AK.

Folded to Hero in LP - raise to 20 with 89c. Villian calls in CO. Heads up.

Ks 8h 3s

Hero bets 25.
Villian raises to 50.

I pause briefly and call.

4h

Check check.

River Kh

What's your play?

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 10:35:37
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

MysteriAce wrote:
>

The reasoning behind it is that you get to decide how much of a river
bet is made.

He should only raise a monster in which case you can easily dump.

And it stops him making an overbet bluff that you do not want to call.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 11:04:44
From: GrouchySmurf1002
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 1:35 PM, pausem wrote:

> The reasoning behind it is that you get to decide how much of a river
> bet is made.
>
> He should only raise a monster in which case you can easily dump.

Says who? He can't raise with a bluff?

> And it stops him making an overbet bluff that you do not want to call.

No it doesn't, he'd just do it after you bet instead of after you check,
and it costs you more money to find out he's making a bluff you
can't/won't call.

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 10:52:06
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

> The reasoning behind it is that you get to decide how much of a river
> bet is made.
>
> He should only raise a monster in which case you can easily dump.
>
> And it stops him making an overbet bluff that you do not want to call.

Wow, you really are a moron. I thought you were just trolling my
re-trolls. But now I'm convinced you're just a moron.

Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 10:53:29
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

<insert some lame comment from pausem about me cheating in a $5 SNG here >

Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 12:19:44
From: Raider Fan
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 12:53 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> <insert some lame comment from pausem about me cheating in a $5 SNG here>
>
> Morphy
> http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

LOL

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 10:41:29
From: MysteriAce
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 11:35 AM, pausem wrote:

> MysteriAce wrote:
> >
>
> The reasoning behind it is that you get to decide how much of a river
> bet is made.
>
> He should only raise a monster in which case you can easily dump.
>
> And it stops him making an overbet bluff that you do not want to call.

Ouch, I just give up. Good luck at the tables!

~ MysteriAce

"Ashes and diamonds
Foe and friend
We were all equal in the end"

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 10:04:07
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

MysteriAce wrote:

>
> Why would you do that? If you bet, he folds everything that you beat, and
> calls and raises you when you are beat. If you check and call a bet, he
> might bet with the K, better than the K, or a bluff, so you can get value
> when you have the best hand and minimize your losses when you are behind.
>

It's a standard blocking bet.

Makes him think twice about putting in a monster bluff.

If he has a monster hand he will raise it and I can dump.

If I check and he has a monster then I was probably going to have to
call a bet bigger than I made with a check call.

And if I'm really lucky and he is really tight he might lay down a
medium pair that beats me.

Personnally I put him on A x spades

Date: 20 Dec 2006 10:27:37
From: MysteriAce
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 11:04 AM, pausem wrote:

> MysteriAce wrote:
>
> >
> > Why would you do that? If you bet, he folds everything that you beat, and
> > calls and raises you when you are beat. If you check and call a bet, he
> > might bet with the K, better than the K, or a bluff, so you can get value
> > when you have the best hand and minimize your losses when you are behind.
> >
>
> It's a standard blocking bet.
>
> Makes him think twice about putting in a monster bluff.

Why would you want to make him not bluff if you have the best hand? I
mean, if you have the best hand, the ONLY way you make money on the end is
if he bluffs.

> If he has a monster hand he will raise it and I can dump.
>
> If I check and he has a monster then I was probably going to have to
> call a bet bigger than I made with a check call.

But this is not a bad thing. Consider this:
- if you check and he has nothing, he might bluff. You call that bluff
and win the extra bet with the pot. If he checks you win the pot outright.
- if you check and he has 99-QQ, he might very well check behind you, and
you save money by checking the worst hand on the end (note that it's
highly improbable that he lays those hands down to a bet, since you almost
certainly don't have a K in his eyes).
- if you check and he has a big hand, he'll probably try to value bet on
the end to get some value from his hand. You call and lose the bet.

On the other hand:
- if you bet and he has nothing, he either folds and you win the pot as it
is (you can't get the extra call, period), or he raises you on a bluff and
you fold, since that was your plan, and you actually fold the best hand!
And donate an extra bet!
- if you bet and he has 99-QQ, he calls you and you lose that extra bet,
when he might very well have checked behind you, thus saving your bet
- if you bet and he has a big hand, he will raise and again you lose the
extra bet along with the pot.

> And if I'm really lucky and he is really tight he might lay down a
> medium pair that beats me.

If he is that tight, then he didn't min-raise you on the flop with one of
those hands, either. It doesn't work both ways. Either he is willing to
min-raise with one of those hands to test you on the flop, in which case
he isn't folding to a reasonable bet on the river, or he isn't willing to
min raise with one of those hands, meaning he doesn't have one of them.

> Personnally I put him on A x spades

If you put him on Ax spades, then betting serves absolutely no purpose
here.

Think about it:
- If you are right, and he missed his flush, he folds, you risked x to
gain zero.
- If you are wrong, and he has you beat, you lose x.

So in one case you lose x, the other you gain zero. So betting has to
have a negative expectation here. Checking and calling is really optimal.
There's no need to get fancy.

~ MysteriAce

"Ashes and diamonds
Foe and friend
We were all equal in the end"

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 18:32:23
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

Date: 20 Dec 2006 09:46:50
From: jarrett40
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

Kincaid wrote:
> I've been playing TAG in this game and have doubled my stack twice showing a
> set once and AA all-in PF the second time.
>
> A new player to my left has just sat down. He seems tight and moderately
> aggressive. I haven't been playing a lot of pots. I've seen him play one with
> AK.
>
> Folded to Hero in LP - raise to 20 with 89c. Villian calls in CO. Heads up.
>
> Ks 8h 3s
>
> Hero bets 25.
> Villian raises to 50.
>
> I pause briefly and call.

O.K. It's fairly common to raise a small amount on the flop to get a
free turn card. At this point I'm thinking he either has a flush draw
or a KJ or KT suited.So I'd call the small raise.

>
> 4h
>
> Check check.
>
> River Kh
>
> What's your play?

First choice: Bet a moderate amount [about 100] to protect yourself
from him making a play on you. If you're raised,dump it.

Or: You could check and call a small to moderate bet and fold to a
large one.When he checks behind you on the turn he's told you he
doesn't have a K [you said he was fairly aggressive]. I think he missed
his flush draw but I wouldn't go broke with this weak hand.

I could be wrong, but I think these choices are about equal.

jarrett40

Date: 20 Dec 2006 12:19:02
From: Raider Fan
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 11:46 AM, jarrett40 wrote:

>
> O.K. It's fairly common to raise a small amount on the flop to get a
> free turn card. At this point I'm thinking he either has a flush draw
> or a KJ or KT suited.So I'd call the small raise.
>

I'm sure you meant to say free river.

> >
> > 4h
> >
> > Check check.
> >

And it worked.

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 09:42:28
From: GrimJack808
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

Check, possibly call if you truely think you are ahead.

Although the busted flush draw is a possibility, I would put him on a
PP (possibly higher than 99) and suspect he is going to call you either
way. From your description, he seems pretty aggressive, biut the only
play you have seen is him on AK. I would wait before making a big leap
and treating him as an aggressive player. More info is needed here and
while you may play this hand differently against a known player
sometimes an unknown player will get away with one.

I wouldn't bet out here, because if he had K weak kicker, he will raise
you. Also he will suspect you don't have the K because of your check
on the turn. (As you no doubt suspect he doesn't) SO if he indeed has
99-JJ you will be getting raise and then you are stuck and have to call
because his play up to this point is suspicioius and there is enough
equity in calling this one final bet.

Also he could have the monster making a set on the turn and a full
house on the river, checking to get you to overcommit to him on 5th
street, thinking your check on the turn would only mean you would fold
to his bet on the turn. This is doubtful, but in the realms of
possibility from an aggressive player who hits a big hand. While this
is the least likely of scenarios, betting out in this situation just
doesn't seem +EV.

If he is ahead, he likley will not be folding for the same reason that
FellKnight cites. A bet saved is a bet earned.

Good Luck!
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Kincaid wrote:
> I've been playing TAG in this game and have doubled my stack twice showing a
> set once and AA all-in PF the second time.
>
> A new player to my left has just sat down. He seems tight and moderately
> aggressive. I haven't been playing a lot of pots. I've seen him play one with
> AK.
>
> Folded to Hero in LP - raise to 20 with 89c. Villian calls in CO. Heads up.
>
> Ks 8h 3s
>
> Hero bets 25.
> Villian raises to 50.
>
> I pause briefly and call.
>
> 4h
>
> Check check.
>
> River Kh
>
> What's your play?
>
>
> _______________________________________________________________
> The Largest Online Poker Community - http://www.recpoker.com

Date: 20 Dec 2006 09:35:26
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

David Nicoson wrote:
> Kincaid wrote:
> > What's your play?
>
> Check and probably call. I suspect either a weak king or missed
> spades, neither of which there's much point in trying to run over at
> this point.

I'd bet out between a third and half the opt and fold if I'm raised

Date: 20 Dec 2006 09:50:43
From: MysteriAce
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 10:35 AM, pausem wrote:

> David Nicoson wrote:
> > Kincaid wrote:
> > > What's your play?
> >
> > Check and probably call. I suspect either a weak king or missed
> > spades, neither of which there's much point in trying to run over at
> > this point.
>
> I'd bet out between a third and half the opt and fold if I'm raised

Why would you do that? If you bet, he folds everything that you beat, and
calls and raises you when you are beat. If you check and call a bet, he
might bet with the K, better than the K, or a bluff, so you can get value
when you have the best hand and minimize your losses when you are behind.

~ MysteriAce

"Ashes and diamonds
Foe and friend
We were all equal in the end"

-----
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Date: 20 Dec 2006 09:28:36
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

Ben wrote:
> I just wouldn't call because I'm thinking that I'm already behind and I
> probably wouldn't have flat called on the flop. I may have actually
> just mucked it or lead at the pot with a larger bet. Hard to say a lot
> though, without knowing stacks.

I think the flop call is defensible. The pot's laying almost 5:1 and
the hero (it turns out) gets 2 cards to draw for 2-pair or trips. Plus
he might actually be ahead.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 10:03:03
From: Alan Gilbert aka brewmaster
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 9:28 AM, David Nicoson wrote:

> Ben wrote:
> > I just wouldn't call because I'm thinking that I'm already behind and I
> > probably wouldn't have flat called on the flop. I may have actually
> > just mucked it or lead at the pot with a larger bet. Hard to say a lot
> > though, without knowing stacks.
>
> I think the flop call is defensible. The pot's laying almost 5:1 and
> the hero (it turns out) gets 2 cards to draw for 2-pair or trips. Plus
> he might actually be ahead.

It looks to me like the other player probably has a medium king (like K9
suited) and when you called his flop raise he was afraid that maybe you
had a bigger king (AK even). When another king comes on the river he will
no longer be worried. If you bet, he is going to raise you, and if you
check he is going to bet. I'm pretty sure he will show you 3 kings here.
You needed to hit a second pair or another 8 to win this one. I'd check
fold.

------
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you look at it right" -RH

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 09:21:36
From: jarrett40
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

Check and hope he doesn't bet. If he does you have a hard descision. If
he makes a fair sized bet, let go. Don't pay off a big bet or go broke
with this hand.

jarrett40

Date: 20 Dec 2006 09:06:52
From: Ben
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

FellKnight wrote:
> On Dec 20 2006 9:28 AM, Ben wrote:
>
> > FellKnight wrote:
> > > On Dec 20 2006 1:48 AM, Kincaid wrote:
> > >
> > > > I've been playing TAG in this game and have doubled my stack twice
> showing a
> > > > set once and AA all-in PF the second time.
> > > >
> > > > A new player to my left has just sat down. He seems tight and moderately
> > > > aggressive. I haven't been playing a lot of pots. I've seen him play one
> with
> > > > AK.
> > > >
> > > > Folded to Hero in LP - raise to 20 with 89c. Villian calls in CO.
> Heads up.
> > > >
> > > > Ks 8h 3s
> > > >
> > > > Hero bets 25.
> > > > Villian raises to 50.
> > > >
> > > > I pause briefly and call.
> > > >
> > > > 4h
> > > >
> > > > Check check.
> > > >
> > > > River Kh
> > > >
> > > > What's your play?
> > >
> > > Game is what? 2/5NL?
> > >
> > > What are the applicable stack sizes?
> > >
> > > Any reads? Have you seen him minraise before?
> > >
> > > Fell
> > > --
> > > Website: www.fellknight.com
> > > Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
> > >
> > As Fell points out, you leave a lot to be questioned, but in general I
> > think you have to let this hand go and check/muck if he bets.
> > If he's moderately tight as you say, he most likely has a decent hand
> > to have called your raise, the min raise could mean he hit a set of 3's
> > or that he's on an AsQs flush draw or some other A high flush draw. I
> > wouldn't think that he would put you on a flush so he'll likely call
> > most bets you would put out there. If he's got a busted draw he's
> > probably going to check behind and if he had 33 or a K he's probably
> > going to bet it. I don't like putting anymore money into this pot, and
> > I'd probably hope to showdown for free. I don't really like the call on
> > the flop, but without knowing stack sizes, I'm not really sure what I
> > would have done.
> >
> > Sounds passive but out of position vs moderately tag that raised me,
> > I'm not investing anymore.
>
> I'll disagree. The river card was a great one, as nothing that you were
> beating now beats you. If you were ahead on the flop, then you are still
> ahead. Most times, I'm going for a check/call here. Otherwise, there was
> no reason not to muck to the flop raise.
>
> Fell
> --
> Website: www.fellknight.com
> Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
>
> _____________________________________________________________________
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I just wouldn't call because I'm thinking that I'm already behind and I
probably wouldn't have flat called on the flop. I may have actually
just mucked it or lead at the pot with a larger bet. Hard to say a lot
though, without knowing stacks.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 08:19:46
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

Kincaid wrote:
> What's your play?

Check and probably call. I suspect either a weak king or missed
spades, neither of which there's much point in trying to run over at
this point.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 08:07:52
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 1:48 AM, Kincaid wrote:

> I've been playing TAG in this game and have doubled my stack twice showing a
> set once and AA all-in PF the second time.
>
> A new player to my left has just sat down. He seems tight and moderately
> aggressive. I haven't been playing a lot of pots. I've seen him play one with
> AK.
>
> Folded to Hero in LP - raise to 20 with 89c. Villian calls in CO. Heads up.
>
> Ks 8h 3s
>
> Hero bets 25.
> Villian raises to 50.
>
> I pause briefly and call.
>
> 4h
>
> Check check.
>
> River Kh
>
> What's your play?

Game is what? 2/5NL?

What are the applicable stack sizes?

Any reads? Have you seen him minraise before?

Fell
--
Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 19:08:23
From: jarrett40
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

Raider Fan wrote:
> On Dec 20 2006 11:46 AM, jarrett40 wrote:
>
> >
> > O.K. It's fairly common to raise a small amount on the flop to get a
> > free turn card. At this point I'm thinking he either has a flush draw
> > or a KJ or KT suited.So I'd call the small raise.
> >
>
> I'm sure you meant to say free river.

Right.

>
> > >
> > > 4h
> > >
> > > Check check.
> > >
>
> And it worked.

Right.

jarrett40
>
> ______________________________________________________________________
> RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com

Date: 20 Dec 2006 17:35:13
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

David Nicoson wrote:

> The choices we're seriously considering here are block/fold and
> check/maybe call. Those are tricky to compute, because we have to
> consider a lot of different action on the river.

I have never said that block/fold is the only option. I've only claimed
that it is an option in some circumstances against some players.

It turned out that the in this case the villian had KQ and a block/fold
would have been better than check/call. Obviously check/fold is the
correct option.

If I was the villian in this case I would only have called the block...
what could he possibly call a raise with that I beat?

Date: 20 Dec 2006 17:09:08
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

pausem wrote:
> David Nicoson wrote:
> >
> > You're asserting a certain range for the villain, which is fine in
> > itself, but I wanted to take note of that fact since the other
> > arguments don't make any assertions in that respect.
>
> Not sure what you mean here

You decided to the 60/40 split, which is a perfectly fine number if we
have to pick one.

Ace, etc. just ignored the cases when we're ahead and our opponent
doesn't bluff, because it doesn't matter if we bet or not. It
eliminates a variable that isn't important to the discussion.

[SNIP]

> There's a difference between having equity in the pot and getting that
> equity out. Otherwise you put no value on position.

Yeah, I'll agree with that.

I'll even concede that you can count the money in the pot if we use the
right reference. The real problem with your 400 number is we need
something to compare it to.

So far, you've established that a blocking bet in this situation is
$400 better than eating our cards. That $400 number by itself is
mostly a function of how often we have the best hand and the previous
action, which we can't do anything about.

The choices we're seriously considering here are block/fold and
check/maybe call. Those are tricky to compute, because we have to
consider a lot of different action on the river.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 15:33:56
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

David Nicoson wrote:
>
> You're asserting a certain range for the villain, which is fine in
> itself, but I wanted to take note of that fact since the other
> arguments don't make any assertions in that respect.

Not sure what you mean here

>
> When we're beat, you're counting only the marginal effect of the bet on
> the river.
> When we're ahead, you're counting the total bets throughout the hand.
> That's inconsistent, unless you're suggesting that he always bluffs and
> we always fold if we check.

I'm not suggesting that

> If he folds on the river, then we win $0 on the river.

If he folds the river we in the pot $140, not $0

> In other words, why don't you figure the 6 times he has the best hand
> as a loss of 180 x 6?

The money in the middle doesnt belong to you, we are only concerned
with the amount bet or called on the river, in my example $40

> You're assuming that it's impossible for him to bet if we place a
> blocker. I don't know why.

In this example I did, but I also didnt count in the time that a bet
causes a better hand to fold

> Furthermore, I don't think we can bet for value 20% of the time. What
> hands are calling us here? 78 or 77 maybe.

22 33 55 77 AQ AJ 78 maybe

> By your assumptions, we have the best hand 4 out of the ten times. The
> pot's 140 each time, so that's 140 x 4 = 560. So even by your math, we
> found a way to lose 160 in equity.

There's a difference between having equity in the pot and getting that
equity out. Otherwise you put no value on position.

You can make up numbers all night to argue either position but i'm not
going to.

I'm glad you seem to think you have the perfect solution to every
problem in poker. You should be rich soon if you're not already.

Date: 21 Dec
From: Super Steamer
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 3:33 PM, pausem wrote:

> David Nicoson wrote:
> >> >
> > When we're beat, you're counting only the marginal effect of the bet on
> > the river.
> > When we're ahead, you're counting the total bets throughout the hand.
> > That's inconsistent, unless you're suggesting that he always bluffs and
> > we always fold if we check.
>
> I'm not suggesting that
>
Yes you are. If you are saying that you gain the entire equity of the pot when
you win with the blocking bet, then you have to have zero equity without it.
That means every time you check, your opponent bets, and you always fold.
Otherwise your argument that you gain the entire equity of the pot, including
the blocking bet he calls, falls completely flat..

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Date: 20 Dec 23:42:11
From: Super Steamer
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 3:33 PM, pausem wrote:
>
> I'm glad you seem to think you have the perfect solution to every
> problem in poker. You should be rich soon if you're not already.

If I had to make a really wild guess, I'd guess that his poker bankroll is many
times healthier than yours. Just a hunch though.

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 15:00:28
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

pausem wrote:
> There is 140 in the pot
>
> You make a blocking bet of 40 into the pot 10 times

You're asserting a certain range for the villain, which is fine in
itself, but I wanted to take note of that fact since the other
arguments don't make any assertions in that respect.

> 60% of the time he has the best hand and raises or calls - you lose
> $240
> 20% of the time you have the best hand and he folds - you gain $280
> 20% of the time you have the best hand and he calls - you gain $360

When we're beat, you're counting only the marginal effect of the bet on
the river.
When we're ahead, you're counting the total bets throughout the hand.
That's inconsistent, unless you're suggesting that he always bluffs and
we always fold if we check.

If he folds on the river, then we win $0 on the river.
In other words, why don't you figure the 6 times he has the best hand
as a loss of 180 x 6?

You're assuming that it's impossible for him to bet if we place a
blocker. I don't know why.

Furthermore, I don't think we can bet for value 20% of the time. What
hands are calling us here? 78 or 77 maybe.

> So from 10 bets you gain $400

By your assumptions, we have the best hand 4 out of the ten times. The
pot's 140 each time, so that's 140 x 4 = 560. So even by your math, we
found a way to lose 160 in equity.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 14:47:39
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

MysteriAce wrote:
>

> So by checking you have a +$160 net better result than by betting.
>

You asked me to make up some numbers where betting was +ev and I did.

We can make up numbers all night.

I admit that check calling is an option as is check folding.
You are to fucking stupid to realise that betting is also an option
too. An extension of your argument is that no one should ever bet OOP
without the nuts which is clearly nonsense.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 14:32:59
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

MysteriAce wrote:

>
> How do I lose it if I allow him to bluff? Sounds like I would win the 140
> in the pot PLUS the bluff amount. Am I doing the math wrong or something?
> 140+[something > 0] is > -140, right?
>
> Please feel free to correct my math as needed.

I was talking about the times you allow him to bluff when you do not
call because he bets to big

As I said before there is an argument to check/call, check/fold or to
bet/fold.

For you to rule out bet/fold just because some people think it has a
fancy name means you are showing your ignorance. See my other post to
see my arithmetic where bet/folding is +ev

Date: 20 Dec 2006 14:21:24
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

MysteriAce wrote:

> UGH! Make up some numbers then, and post them, not "making your decision
> look better", but demonstrating how it is actually even a good option.

There is 140 in the pot

You make a blocking bet of 40 into the pot 10 times

60% of the time he has the best hand and raises or calls - you lose
$240
20% of the time you have the best hand and he folds - you gain $280
20% of the time you have the best hand and he calls - you gain $360

So from 10 bets you gain $400

Date: 20 Dec 2006 15:45:30
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

Raider Fan wrote:

> You're behind every textbook and most of the posters here. The money in
> the pot is already spent.

The money you put into the pot is already spent. That doesn't mean that
the money in pot has not to be won.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 15:12:50
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

Super Steamer wrote:

> > 20% of the time you have the best hand and he folds - you gain $280
>
> Wrong, you gain nothing.

So you bet and he folds and you somehow dont win the money in the
middle. Ok

>
> > 20% of the time you have the best hand and he calls - you gain $360

> Wrong, you gain 80.00.

Again you bet and win the hand but dont win the money in the pot. Ok

You are assuming that if you check then you are going to win the pot.
That's not how it works.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 15:33:30
From: Raider Fan
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 5:12 PM, pausem wrote:

> Super Steamer wrote:
>
> > > 20% of the time you have the best hand and he folds - you gain $280
> >
> > Wrong, you gain nothing.
>
> So you bet and he folds and you somehow dont win the money in the
> middle. Ok

You're behind every textbook and most of the posters here. The money in
the pot is already spent.

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Date: 20 Dec 23:27:25
From: Super Steamer
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 3:12 PM, pausem wrote:

> Super Steamer wrote:
>
> > > 20% of the time you have the best hand and he folds - you gain $280
> >
> > Wrong, you gain nothing.
>
> So you bet and he folds and you somehow dont win the money in the
> middle. Ok
>
> >
> > > 20% of the time you have the best hand and he calls - you gain $360
>
> > Wrong, you gain 80.00.
>
> Again you bet and win the hand but dont win the money in the pot. Ok
>
> You are assuming that if you check then you are going to win the pot.
> That's not how it works.

Why are you counting money that you would have won anyways and adding it in to
what you make from your blocker bet?

_______________________________________________________________
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Date: 20 Dec 23:31:57
From: Super Steamer
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

> On Dec 20 2006 3:12 PM, pausem wrote:
>
> > Super Steamer wrote:
> >
> > > > 20% of the time you have the best hand and he folds - you gain $280
> > >
> > > Wrong, you gain nothing.
> >
> > So you bet and he folds and you somehow dont win the money in the
> > middle. Ok
> >
> > >
> > > > 20% of the time you have the best hand and he calls - you gain $360
> >
> > > Wrong, you gain 80.00.
> >
> > Again you bet and win the hand but dont win the money in the pot. Ok
> >
> > You are assuming that if you check then you are going to win the pot.
> > That's not how it works.
>

What makes you think that your assumptions have any basis in reality? Why don't
you count all the money that you had already put in the pot, the times you bet
and you lose the pot? It's only fair if you are counting all the previous
streets the times you win.

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Date: 20 Dec 23:04:39
From: Super Steamer
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 2:21 PM, pausem wrote:

> MysteriAce wrote:
>
>
> > UGH! Make up some numbers then, and post them, not "making your decision
> > look better", but demonstrating how it is actually even a good option.
>
>
> There is 140 in the pot
>
> You make a blocking bet of 40 into the pot 10 times
>
> 60% of the time he has the best hand and raises or calls - you lose
> $240

OK.

> 20% of the time you have the best hand and he folds - you gain $280

Wrong, you gain nothing.

> 20% of the time you have the best hand and he calls - you gain $360
>

Wrong, you gain 80.00.

> So from 10 bets you gain $400

Nope.

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 14:34:04
From: MysteriAce
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 3:21 PM, pausem wrote:

> MysteriAce wrote:
>
>
> > UGH! Make up some numbers then, and post them, not "making your decision
> > look better", but demonstrating how it is actually even a good option.
>
>
> There is 140 in the pot
>
> You make a blocking bet of 40 into the pot 10 times
>
> 60% of the time he has the best hand and raises or calls - you lose
> $240
> 20% of the time you have the best hand and he folds - you gain $280
> 20% of the time you have the best hand and he calls - you gain $360
>
> So from 10 bets you gain $400

Clearly you have exactly zero knowledge regarding the concept of equity on
individual bets. Either that or you are a troll. In any event I'm done
with this nonsense (like I should have been in the first place).

Here's my final rebuttal. I'll even use your bad math where you gain the
pot (which shouldn't be in your equity calculations to begin with, that's
just wrong).

Say you check, exact same conditions you laid out (although in your case
having him call 20% of the time with a worse hand is pretty ridiculous,
but whatever).

You bet $0 10 times, and:
60% of the time he has a better hand and wins the pot. You lose zero
40% of the time he has worse hand and you win the pot, or $560.

So by checking you have a +$160 net better result than by betting.

In other words, it is a LOSING bet. Good day to you now.

~ MysteriAce

"Ashes and diamonds
Foe and friend
We were all equal in the end"

-------
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Date: 20 Dec 2006 14:04:11
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

MysteriAce wrote:

> Think about this: if you think he has AsQs 99 out of 100 times, and a K
> the other time, and even further you suppose that he will fold the busted
> draw and not bluff, and only call and show you a K when he has it, then
> here's the math:
>
> You make a $40 bet in all 100 cases.
>
> In 99 of those cases you win nothing more with your $40 bet. You return a
> profit of ZERO.
> The other time he calls you and you lose the $40.
>
> Out of 100 trials, where he has a busted draw 99 times, you lose $40.
>

You are forgetting about the 140 in the pot that you lmay ose if you
allow him to bluff

Youre argument is a false dichotomy

Date: 20 Dec 2006 14:19:47
From: MysteriAce
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 3:04 PM, pausem wrote:

> MysteriAce wrote:
>
> > Think about this: if you think he has AsQs 99 out of 100 times, and a K
> > the other time, and even further you suppose that he will fold the busted
> > draw and not bluff, and only call and show you a K when he has it, then
> > here's the math:
> >
> > You make a $40 bet in all 100 cases.
> >
> > In 99 of those cases you win nothing more with your $40 bet. You return a
> > profit of ZERO.
> > The other time he calls you and you lose the $40.
> >
> > Out of 100 trials, where he has a busted draw 99 times, you lose $40.
> >
>
> You are forgetting about the 140 in the pot that you lmay ose if you
> allow him to bluff

How do I lose it if I allow him to bluff? Sounds like I would win the 140
in the pot PLUS the bluff amount. Am I doing the math wrong or something?
140+[something > 0] is > -140, right?

Please feel free to correct my math as needed.

> Youre argument is a false dichotomy

~ MysteriAce

"Ashes and diamonds
Foe and friend
We were all equal in the end"

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 13:27:10
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

GrouchySmurf1002 wrote:
> On Dec 20 2006 4:11 PM, pausem wrote:
>
> Whatever though, you're convinced blocking bets are a giant savior, I
> think they're a waste of good chips. Nothing either of us said is going
> to change that.
>
> ------
> : the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com

Like everything else it depends.

Sometimes I bet here sometimes I check

Date: 20 Dec 2006 13:11:45
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

GrouchySmurf1002 wrote:

>
> So you bet 40 into the 140 pot and fold to a raise of 120 by A2s
> I check and call 80 against his A2s.
>
> How exactly is your spot better?

I could make up numbers that make my decision look better too

> If the all-in is 1500 into a 140 pot, no I'm not snapping it off.
> If the all-in is 140 into the 140 pot, I just have to decide if he's
> bluffing more than 1/3 of the time. Given the board and the weakness
> I've shown, I very well could come to that conclusion.
>
> But if he's going to bet 1500 into a 140 pot, then there's a very high
> probability he's going to do that whether I bet or not. At least in my
> spot I save the 40 I bet trying to find out if he's going to bluff.
>

He's only played a few hands so he probably doesnt have 1500.

Your argument is based on him recognising a blocking bet as a blocking
bet.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 13:25:37
From: MysteriAce
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 2:11 PM, pausem wrote:

> GrouchySmurf1002 wrote:
>
> >
> > So you bet 40 into the 140 pot and fold to a raise of 120 by A2s
> > I check and call 80 against his A2s.
> >
> > How exactly is your spot better?
>
> I could make up numbers that make my decision look better too

UGH! Make up some numbers then, and post them, not "making your decision
look better", but demonstrating how it is actually even a good option.

Grouchy's point is simple. If you bet and get raised, the amount of the
total bet from your opponent will almost always be greater than if you
check and he bets.

> > If the all-in is 1500 into a 140 pot, no I'm not snapping it off.
> > If the all-in is 140 into the 140 pot, I just have to decide if he's
> > bluffing more than 1/3 of the time. Given the board and the weakness
> > I've shown, I very well could come to that conclusion.
> >
> > But if he's going to bet 1500 into a 140 pot, then there's a very high
> > probability he's going to do that whether I bet or not. At least in my
> > spot I save the 40 I bet trying to find out if he's going to bluff.
> >
>
> He's only played a few hands so he probably doesnt have 1500.
>
> Your argument is based on him recognising a blocking bet as a blocking
> bet.

Guy, any half intellegent player is going to see that you probably don't
have a K. If you make a weak bet on the end, there is a good chance you
will get raised off your hand by a bluff. You will also get raised by a
K. And called by any other hand that beats you.

I understand you have a hang up when it comes to considering plays that
don't have catchy names, but you need to consider what you're being told
here if you legitimately want to improve your game. It doesn't improve
your case at all that in the face of analysis you just keep returning with
"but it's a blocker bet".

It's a bad bet, that's all there is to it. The bet can only cost you
money in the long run. There is no chance that your bet could ever have a
positive return.

Think about this: if you think he has AsQs 99 out of 100 times, and a K
the other time, and even further you suppose that he will fold the busted
draw and not bluff, and only call and show you a K when he has it, then
here's the math:

You make a $40 bet in all 100 cases.

In 99 of those cases you win nothing more with your $40 bet. You return a
profit of ZERO.
The other time he calls you and you lose the $40.

Out of 100 trials, where he has a busted draw 99 times, you lose $40.

The downside only gets worse from there.

~ MysteriAce

"Ashes and diamonds
Foe and friend
We were all equal in the end"

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 13:21:33
From: GrouchySmurf1002
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 4:11 PM, pausem wrote:

> Your argument is based on him recognising a blocking bet as a blocking
> bet.

No, mine is based on him recognizing that you just bet some number and now
he can't call with a worse hand, but will call or raise with a better one,
whereas if I check to him he can now bet with a bunch of hands I can beat
and I'll make money off them.

Whatever though, you're convinced blocking bets are a giant savior, I
think they're a waste of good chips. Nothing either of us said is going
to change that.

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 12:52:36
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

XaQ Morphy wrote:

> Wow, you really are a moron. I thought you were just trolling my
> re-trolls. But now I'm convinced you're just a moron.
>

My own personal stalker. Now I feel accepted.

You still banging my mom and my sister or is she too fat for you now?

Date: 20 Dec 2006 12:41:27
From: johnny T
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

I think there is a shot I am ahead, and that the opponent puts me on a
King and the pot is stealable.

I won't stand to alot of pressure here.

I have no idea what will happen if I fold. Or what he might do with AQs

I am going to learn something that may be useful if I check or call.

I find an amount that I would call, and flip a mental coin whether I bet
or call that amount, and I don't put more in.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 12:33:43
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

GrouchySmurf1002 wrote:

>
> The only way then that it could be considered the right play is if
> check-calling has a worse expectation. Given that by check-calling
> you're going to snap off some bluffs and showing down the best hand a fair
> percentage of the time, there's almost no way this could be true.
>

You gain when it stops him making a bet with a worse hand that you
would fold to

Are you going to snap off an all in bluff with middle pair no kicker?

Date: 20 Dec 2006 12:51:18
From: GrouchySmurf1002
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 3:33 PM, pausem wrote:

> GrouchySmurf1002 wrote:
>
> >
> > The only way then that it could be considered the right play is if
> > check-calling has a worse expectation. Given that by check-calling
> > you're going to snap off some bluffs and showing down the best hand a fair
> > percentage of the time, there's almost no way this could be true.
> >
>
> You gain when it stops him making a bet with a worse hand that you
> would fold to

So you bet 40 into the 140 pot and fold to a raise of 120 by A2s
I check and call 80 against his A2s.

How exactly is your spot better?

> Are you going to snap off an all in bluff with middle pair no kicker?

If the all-in is 1500 into a 140 pot, no I'm not snapping it off.
If the all-in is 140 into the 140 pot, I just have to decide if he's
bluffing more than 1/3 of the time. Given the board and the weakness
I've shown, I very well could come to that conclusion.

But if he's going to bet 1500 into a 140 pot, then there's a very high
probability he's going to do that whether I bet or not. At least in my
spot I save the 40 I bet trying to find out if he's going to bluff.

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 12:19:06
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

pausem wrote:
> It is a blocking bet.
>
> Basically you have a crap hand OOP and want a cheap showdown.

Having a name doesn't make the notion a good idea.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 11:55:59
From: pausem
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

David Nicoson wrote:

>
> What's to stop him from reading 1/3 pot as a blocking bet, and
> therefore raising with busted spades?

It is a blocking bet.

Basically you have a crap hand OOP and want a cheap showdown.

You either check call a small bet or throw out a blocking bet.

Either way you're in danger of getting bluffed if you do actually have
a winning hand.

Date: 20 Dec 2006 12:15:43
From: GrouchySmurf1002
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

On Dec 20 2006 2:55 PM, pausem wrote:

> It is a blocking bet.

When you make this bet here, you makes hands worse than you fold, and
hands better are going to call you. Worse, some hands that are worse
(busted spades for instance) are going to raise some percentage of the
time and make you fold the best hand.

So that means at best you make no money on the bet and at worst you lose
your bet. That adds up to a bet with negative expectation.

The only way then that it could be considered the right play is if
check-calling has a worse expectation. Given that by check-calling
you're going to snap off some bluffs and showing down the best hand a fair
percentage of the time, there's almost no way this could be true.

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Date: 20 Dec 2006 11:39:29
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: Help me out with this Bellagio river card

pausem wrote:
> MysteriAce wrote:
> >
>
> The reasoning behind it is that you get to decide how much of a river
> bet is made.
>
> He should only raise a monster in which case you can easily dump.

What if he didn't get the memo on that?

What's to stop him from reading 1/3 pot as a blocking bet, and
therefore raising with busted spades?