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Date: 15 Dec 15:39:47
From: CrackerJack
Subject: Does this seem right?
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This hand happened in a home game last night where they were both all-in on the
flop.
This seems like the KK would higher odds of winning the hand because even if the
8,10 hits their straight, the KK has a redraw to the nuts.
Kc Kh vs. 8c 10h
Board Ac 9c 7c
The KK is only a 78% favorite here... to me it would seem like a bigger favorite
than that.
Any comments?
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Date: 15 Dec 2006 09:53:34
From: phlash74
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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On Dec 15, 7:39 am, CrackerJack <43086...@recpoker.com > wrote:
> This hand happened in a home game last night where they were both all-in on the
> flop.
>
> This seems like the KK would higher odds of winning the hand because even if the
> 8,10 hits their straight, the KK has a redraw to the nuts.
>
> Kc Kh vs. 8c 10h
>
> Board Ac 9c 7c
>
> The KK is only a 78% favorite here... to me it would seem like a bigger favorite
> than that.
>
> Any comments?
>
> _______________________________________________________________
> Block Lists, Favorites, and more -http://www.recpoker.com
Let me guess, the straight came and no club flush bailed out the KK?
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Date: 15 Dec 18:16:55
From: CrackerJack
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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yep...
I wasn't in the hand, but I was willing to bet the other guy that he wouldn't
win this again out of 40 tries.
He agreed, but neither one of us felt like going through the motions.
On Dec 15 2006 12:53 PM, phlash74 wrote:
> On Dec 15, 7:39 am, CrackerJack <43086...@recpoker.com> wrote:
> > This hand happened in a home game last night where they were both all-in on
> > the
> > flop.
> >
> > This seems like the KK would higher odds of winning the hand because even if
> > the
> > 8,10 hits their straight, the KK has a redraw to the nuts.
> >
> > Kc Kh vs. 8c 10h
> >
> > Board Ac 9c 7c
> >
> > The KK is only a 78% favorite here... to me it would seem like a bigger
> > favorite
> > than that.
> >
> > Any comments?
> >
> > _______________________________________________________________
> > Block Lists, Favorites, and more -/
>
>
> Let me guess, the straight came and no club flush bailed out the KK?
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Date: 15 Dec 19:03:42
From: Nick Wool
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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On Dec 15 2006 6:16 PM, CrackerJack wrote:
>
> yep...
> I wasn't in the hand, but I was willing to bet the other guy that he wouldn't
> win this again out of 40 tries.
> He agreed, but neither one of us felt like going through the motions.
>
>
6 outs with the chance of runners for trips/2 pairs? The buggers would win
against me 9 times out of 10.
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Date: 15 Dec 2006 10:53:21
From: Howard Beale
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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On Dec 15 2006 11:16 AM, CrackerJack wrote:
> yep...
> I wasn't in the hand, but I was willing to bet the other guy that he wouldn't
> win this again out of 40 tries.
> He agreed, but neither one of us felt like going through the motions.
You must've run these numbers to get your 78% figure:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2247399
pokenum -h kc kh - th 8c -- ac 9c 7c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ac 9c 7c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Kh 776 78.38 214 21.62 0 0.00 0.784
8c Th 214 21.62 776 78.38 0 0.00 0.216
You seem to want to 'argue' with them anyway. At any rate to be willing
to bet that a straight draw w/ other outs as well won't win one out of 40
times in that spot is kind of silly.
Howard Beale
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Date: 15 Dec 21:11:06
From: Chris in Texas
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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On Dec 15 2006 12:53 PM, Howard Beale wrote:
> On Dec 15 2006 11:16 AM, CrackerJack wrote:
>
> > yep...
> > I wasn't in the hand, but I was willing to bet the other guy that he
> > wouldn't
> > win this again out of 40 tries.
> > He agreed, but neither one of us felt like going through the motions.
>
> You must've run these numbers to get your 78% figure:
>
> http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2247399
> pokenum -h kc kh - th 8c -- ac 9c 7c
> Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ac 9c 7c
> cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
> Kc Kh 776 78.38 214 21.62 0 0.00 0.784
> 8c Th 214 21.62 776 78.38 0 0.00 0.216
>
> You seem to want to 'argue' with them anyway. At any rate to be willing
> to bet that a straight draw w/ other outs as well won't win one out of 40
> times in that spot is kind of silly.
>
Not as silly as the other guy passing on that bet because he didn't want to "go
through the motions".
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Date: 15 Dec 2006 14:05:47
From: Howard Beale
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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On Dec 15 2006 2:11 PM, Chris in Texas wrote:
> On Dec 15 2006 12:53 PM, Howard Beale wrote:
>
> > On Dec 15 2006 11:16 AM, CrackerJack wrote:
> >
> > > yep...
> > > I wasn't in the hand, but I was willing to bet the other guy that he
> > > wouldn't
> > > win this again out of 40 tries.
> > > He agreed, but neither one of us felt like going through the motions.
> >
> > You must've run these numbers to get your 78% figure:
> >
> > http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2247399
> > pokenum -h kc kh - th 8c -- ac 9c 7c
> > Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ac 9c 7c
> > cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
> > Kc Kh 776 78.38 214 21.62 0 0.00 0.784
> > 8c Th 214 21.62 776 78.38 0 0.00 0.216
> >
> > You seem to want to 'argue' with them anyway. At any rate to be willing
> > to bet that a straight draw w/ other outs as well won't win one out of 40
> > times in that spot is kind of silly.
> >
>
> Not as silly as the other guy passing on that bet because he didn't want to
"go
> through the motions".
Certainly. How do we get either of them into our games?
HB
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Date: 15 Dec 2006 08:21:16
From: John_Brian_K
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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> Kc Kh vs. 8c 10h
>
> Board Ac 9c 7c
8-10 has 8 out to immediately improve with a 6 or a jack he has the
straight so it this point at about 17% to hit. If you count the 10 or
the nine you have 6 more outs or 14 total for about 29% to hit, but
even if you hit your 10 or 9 on the turn you still would have to either
fill your straight or hit the 9 or 10 (whichever hit the turn) so you
lose 3 outs.
But you have to take into account the higher club flush, but then again
the redraw to the straight flush by the 8-10.
If you did hit your 10 or 9 you then would have 10 outs 8 for the 6 or
J and 2 for the remaining 10 or 9 whichever hit which would then put
you at about 10% to hit on the river.
Now if you did hit your J on the turn you have the immediate nuts, but
like you mentioned KK has the redraw to the nut K high striaght which
would be the Q and also any club.
Damn screw this my head is spinning. LOL
sorry it started good, but I am losing myself to all the redraw
possibilities.
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Date: 15 Dec 2006 08:15:54
From: Grip
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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If there was no flush draw for either, Kings would be a 2:1 (63%)
favorite. The nut flush draw gives an edge of another 15 points.
Maybe you're expecting an overpair to have higher odds against a draw.
G
CrackerJack wrote:
> This hand happened in a home game last night where they were both all-in on the
> flop.
>
> This seems like the KK would higher odds of winning the hand because even if the
> 8,10 hits their straight, the KK has a redraw to the nuts.
>
> Kc Kh vs. 8c 10h
>
> Board Ac 9c 7c
>
> The KK is only a 78% favorite here... to me it would seem like a bigger favorite
> than that.
>
> Any comments?
>
> _______________________________________________________________
> Block Lists, Favorites, and more - http://www.recpoker.com
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Date: 15 Dec 2006 07:56:50
From: GrouchySmurf1002
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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On Dec 15 2006 10:39 AM, CrackerJack wrote:
> This hand happened in a home game last night where they were both all-in on
the
> flop.
>
> This seems like the KK would higher odds of winning the hand because even if
the
> 8,10 hits their straight, the KK has a redraw to the nuts.
>
> Kc Kh vs. 8c 10h
>
> Board Ac 9c 7c
>
> The KK is only a 78% favorite here... to me it would seem like a bigger
favorite
> than that.
>
> Any comments?
Ideas like this are why people think online poker is rigged.
He's got 6 outs twice, that's about 25%. The re-draws for KK then hurt
the percentage a little, but it's also compensated by the fact the
straight isn't the only way T8 can win there.
Anyway, 78% favorite is pretty substantial. The only time you get into
the +90% area is when you start needing runners to get beat.
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Date: 15 Dec 17:37:12
From: Nick Wool
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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>
> Anyway, 78% favorite is pretty substantial. The only time you get into
> the +90% area is when you start needing runners to get beat.
Sorry to be pedantic here, but how about 2 outers and 1 outers?
Example 1....flop 27Q rainbow...77 v QQ...no runners needed, but 95.5%
Example 2....AA v 77 on the same flop...2 outs with 2 cards to come...91%
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Date: 15 Dec 2006 09:50:19
From: GrouchySmurf1002
Subject: Re: Does this seem right?
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On Dec 15 2006 12:37 PM, Nick Wool wrote:
> >
> > Anyway, 78% favorite is pretty substantial. The only time you get into
> > the +90% area is when you start needing runners to get beat.
>
> Sorry to be pedantic here, but how about 2 outers and 1 outers?
>
> Example 1....flop 27Q rainbow...77 v QQ...no runners needed, but 95.5%
>
> Example 2....AA v 77 on the same flop...2 outs with 2 cards to come...91%
I blame the PPT.
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