Does this play have a +ev in the long run

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Date: 13 Dec 2006 20:10:40
From: pokerchimp
Subject: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

I lost the hand, because he improved on the river. But nevertheless he
took the maximum time to call and was speculating that I either slow
played a flopped straight or set. OBviously that 's what I wanted him to
think, although I didn't think he was so strong. At this pont in the
tourney I was below average in chips but put him all in. What do you
think of the play?

Stage #574154357 Tourney ID 1319237 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No
Limit $200 - 2006-12-13 22:33:21 (ET)
Table: 54 (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer
Seat 1 - ACESFULLLLL ($10430 in chips)
Seat 2 - DIESELDYKE ($9890 in chips)
Seat 3 - ZOOKA ($14200 in chips)
Seat 4 - BADBOY5 ($8480 in chips)
Seat 5 - KRUSHDOG ($8540 in chips)
Seat 6 - DABSBADS ($6230 in chips)
Seat 7 - KRAZYD420 ($7140 in chips)
Seat 8 - APEX 10 ($8790 in chips)
Seat 9 - DUHAST533 ($6145 in chips)
ZOOKA - Posts small blind $100
BADBOY5 - Posts big blind $200
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to DIESELDYKE [9h 8h]
KRUSHDOG - Folds
DABSBADS - Calls $200
KRAZYD420 - Calls $200
APEX 10 - Folds
DUHAST533 - Folds
ACESFULLLLL - Calls $200
DIESELDYKE - Calls $200
ZOOKA - Calls $100
BADBOY5 - Checks
*** FLOP *** [8s 10d 6h]
ZOOKA - Checks
BADBOY5 - Bets $400
DABSBADS - Folds
KRAZYD420 - Calls $400
ACESFULLLLL - Calls $400
DIESELDYKE - Calls $400
ZOOKA - Calls $400
*** TURN *** [8s 10d 6h] [3s]
ZOOKA - Checks
BADBOY5 - Bets $600
KRAZYD420 - Calls $600
ACESFULLLLL - Folds
DIESELDYKE - Calls $600
ZOOKA - Calls $600
*** RIVER *** [8s 10d 6h 3s] [Kc]
ZOOKA - Checks
BADBOY5 - Checks
KRAZYD420 - Bets $1400
DIESELDYKE - All-In(Raise) $8690 to $8690
ZOOKA - Folds
BADBOY5 - Folds
KRAZYD420 - All-In $4540
DIESELDYKE - returned ($2750) : not called
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DIESELDYKE - Shows [9h 8h] (One pair, eights)
KRAZYD420 - Shows [10h Kd] (Two Pair, kings and tens)
KRAZYD420 Collects $17480 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($17480)
Board [8s 10d 6h 3s Kc]
Seat 1: ACESFULLLLL Folded on the TURN
Seat 2: DIESELDYKE (dealer) HI:lost with One pair, eights [9h 8h -
B:8s,P:8h,B:Kc,B:10d,P:9h]
Seat 3: ZOOKA (small blind) Folded on the RIVER
Seat 4: BADBOY5 (big blind) Folded on the RIVER
Seat 5: KRUSHDOG Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: DABSBADS Folded on the FLOP
Seat 7: KRAZYD420 won Total ($17480) All-In HI:($17480) with Two Pair,
kings and tens [10h Kd - P:Kd,B:Kc,P:10h,B:10d,B:8s]
Seat 8: APEX 10 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 9: DUHAST533 Folded on the POCKET CARDS

thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7

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Date: 13 Dec 2006 23:09:38
From: Douglas Dunn
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

pokerchimp wrote:
> I lost the hand, because he improved on the river. But nevertheless he
> took the maximum time to call and was speculating that I either slow
> played a flopped straight or set. OBviously that 's what I wanted him to
> think, although I didn't think he was so strong. At this pont in the
> tourney I was below average in chips but put him all in. What do you
> think of the play?
>
> Stage #574154357 Tourney ID 1319237 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No
> Limit $200 - 2006-12-13 22:33:21 (ET)
> Table: 54 (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer
> Seat 1 - ACESFULLLLL ($10430 in chips)
> Seat 2 - DIESELDYKE ($9890 in chips)
> Seat 3 - ZOOKA ($14200 in chips)
> Seat 4 - BADBOY5 ($8480 in chips)
> Seat 5 - KRUSHDOG ($8540 in chips)
> Seat 6 - DABSBADS ($6230 in chips)
> Seat 7 - KRAZYD420 ($7140 in chips)
> Seat 8 - APEX 10 ($8790 in chips)
> Seat 9 - DUHAST533 ($6145 in chips)
> ZOOKA - Posts small blind $100
> BADBOY5 - Posts big blind $200
> *** POCKET CARDS ***
> Dealt to DIESELDYKE [9h 8h]
> KRUSHDOG - Folds
> DABSBADS - Calls $200
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $200
> APEX 10 - Folds
> DUHAST533 - Folds
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $200
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $200
> ZOOKA - Calls $100
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> *** FLOP *** [8s 10d 6h]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $400
> DABSBADS - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $400
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $400
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $400
> ZOOKA - Calls $400
> *** TURN *** [8s 10d 6h] [3s]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $600
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $600
> ACESFULLLLL - Folds
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $600
> ZOOKA - Calls $600
> *** RIVER *** [8s 10d 6h 3s] [Kc]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> KRAZYD420 - Bets $1400
> DIESELDYKE - All-In(Raise) $8690 to $8690
> ZOOKA - Folds
> BADBOY5 - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - All-In $4540
> DIESELDYKE - returned ($2750) : not called
> *** SHOW DOWN ***
> DIESELDYKE - Shows [9h 8h] (One pair, eights)
> KRAZYD420 - Shows [10h Kd] (Two Pair, kings and tens)
> KRAZYD420 Collects $17480 from main pot
> *** SUMMARY ***
> Total Pot($17480)
> Board [8s 10d 6h 3s Kc]
> Seat 1: ACESFULLLLL Folded on the TURN
> Seat 2: DIESELDYKE (dealer) HI:lost with One pair, eights [9h 8h -
> B:8s,P:8h,B:Kc,B:10d,P:9h]
> Seat 3: ZOOKA (small blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 4: BADBOY5 (big blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 5: KRUSHDOG Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 6: DABSBADS Folded on the FLOP
> Seat 7: KRAZYD420 won Total ($17480) All-In HI:($17480) with Two Pair,
> kings and tens [10h Kd - P:Kd,B:Kc,P:10h,B:10d,B:8s]
> Seat 8: APEX 10 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 9: DUHAST533 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
>
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7
>
> ______________________________________________________________________
> looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com

After you have a new bettor coming alive when the king hit, I think you
have little FE in this spot. This is a 4 way pot on the river, and his
bet looks exactly like what it was. A value bet that wants to be
called. I think the best hand you get to fold is a T. OEOCA You are
essentially risking 6k to win 7k so it has to be successful less then
half the time to be +EV. Unless you have some player specific
information I think you're getting called in this situation at least
80% of the time.

Doug

Date: 13 Dec 2006 23:09:16
From: Douglas Dunn
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

pokerchimp wrote:
> I lost the hand, because he improved on the river. But nevertheless he
> took the maximum time to call and was speculating that I either slow
> played a flopped straight or set. OBviously that 's what I wanted him to
> think, although I didn't think he was so strong. At this pont in the
> tourney I was below average in chips but put him all in. What do you
> think of the play?
>
> Stage #574154357 Tourney ID 1319237 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No
> Limit $200 - 2006-12-13 22:33:21 (ET)
> Table: 54 (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer
> Seat 1 - ACESFULLLLL ($10430 in chips)
> Seat 2 - DIESELDYKE ($9890 in chips)
> Seat 3 - ZOOKA ($14200 in chips)
> Seat 4 - BADBOY5 ($8480 in chips)
> Seat 5 - KRUSHDOG ($8540 in chips)
> Seat 6 - DABSBADS ($6230 in chips)
> Seat 7 - KRAZYD420 ($7140 in chips)
> Seat 8 - APEX 10 ($8790 in chips)
> Seat 9 - DUHAST533 ($6145 in chips)
> ZOOKA - Posts small blind $100
> BADBOY5 - Posts big blind $200
> *** POCKET CARDS ***
> Dealt to DIESELDYKE [9h 8h]
> KRUSHDOG - Folds
> DABSBADS - Calls $200
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $200
> APEX 10 - Folds
> DUHAST533 - Folds
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $200
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $200
> ZOOKA - Calls $100
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> *** FLOP *** [8s 10d 6h]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $400
> DABSBADS - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $400
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $400
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $400
> ZOOKA - Calls $400
> *** TURN *** [8s 10d 6h] [3s]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $600
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $600
> ACESFULLLLL - Folds
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $600
> ZOOKA - Calls $600
> *** RIVER *** [8s 10d 6h 3s] [Kc]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> KRAZYD420 - Bets $1400
> DIESELDYKE - All-In(Raise) $8690 to $8690
> ZOOKA - Folds
> BADBOY5 - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - All-In $4540
> DIESELDYKE - returned ($2750) : not called
> *** SHOW DOWN ***
> DIESELDYKE - Shows [9h 8h] (One pair, eights)
> KRAZYD420 - Shows [10h Kd] (Two Pair, kings and tens)
> KRAZYD420 Collects $17480 from main pot
> *** SUMMARY ***
> Total Pot($17480)
> Board [8s 10d 6h 3s Kc]
> Seat 1: ACESFULLLLL Folded on the TURN
> Seat 2: DIESELDYKE (dealer) HI:lost with One pair, eights [9h 8h -
> B:8s,P:8h,B:Kc,B:10d,P:9h]
> Seat 3: ZOOKA (small blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 4: BADBOY5 (big blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 5: KRUSHDOG Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 6: DABSBADS Folded on the FLOP
> Seat 7: KRAZYD420 won Total ($17480) All-In HI:($17480) with Two Pair,
> kings and tens [10h Kd - P:Kd,B:Kc,P:10h,B:10d,B:8s]
> Seat 8: APEX 10 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 9: DUHAST533 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
>
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7
>
> ______________________________________________________________________
> looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com

After you have a new bettor coming alive when the king hit, I think you
have little FE in this spot. This is a 4 way pot on the river, and his
bet looks exactly like what it was. A value bet that wants to be
called. I think the best hand you get to fold is a T. OEOCA You are
essentially risking 6k to win 7k so it has to be successful less then
half the time to be +EV. Unless you have some player specific
information I don't think you're getting called in this situation at
least 80% of the time.

Doug

Date: 14 Dec
From: Tanya AKA MissT74
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

To answre your thread question though, I believe it probably IS +EV IN THE LONG
RUN, as you will more likely get people to fold more often then calling, this
guy just happened to hit his King. I can still believe it's a +EV in the long
run even after what I already posted, right???

I guess it just depends on what stage of the tourney you're at, if you're
willing to risk it all, your tourney life on a bluff. I know Fell is willing to
do that often, I'm more gunshy then that.

; )

T

On Dec 13 2006 9:10 PM, pokerchimp wrote:

> I lost the hand, because he improved on the river. But nevertheless he
> took the maximum time to call and was speculating that I either slow
> played a flopped straight or set. OBviously that 's what I wanted him to
> think, although I didn't think he was so strong. At this pont in the
> tourney I was below average in chips but put him all in. What do you
> think of the play?
>
> Stage #574154357 Tourney ID 1319237 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No
> Limit $200 - 2006-12-13 22:33:21 (ET)
> Table: 54 (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer
> Seat 1 - ACESFULLLLL ($10430 in chips)
> Seat 2 - DIESELDYKE ($9890 in chips)
> Seat 3 - ZOOKA ($14200 in chips)
> Seat 4 - BADBOY5 ($8480 in chips)
> Seat 5 - KRUSHDOG ($8540 in chips)
> Seat 6 - DABSBADS ($6230 in chips)
> Seat 7 - KRAZYD420 ($7140 in chips)
> Seat 8 - APEX 10 ($8790 in chips)
> Seat 9 - DUHAST533 ($6145 in chips)
> ZOOKA - Posts small blind $100
> BADBOY5 - Posts big blind $200
> *** POCKET CARDS ***
> Dealt to DIESELDYKE [9h 8h]
> KRUSHDOG - Folds
> DABSBADS - Calls $200
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $200
> APEX 10 - Folds
> DUHAST533 - Folds
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $200
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $200
> ZOOKA - Calls $100
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> *** FLOP *** [8s 10d 6h]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $400
> DABSBADS - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $400
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $400
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $400
> ZOOKA - Calls $400
> *** TURN *** [8s 10d 6h] [3s]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $600
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $600
> ACESFULLLLL - Folds
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $600
> ZOOKA - Calls $600
> *** RIVER *** [8s 10d 6h 3s] [Kc]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> KRAZYD420 - Bets $1400
> DIESELDYKE - All-In(Raise) $8690 to $8690
> ZOOKA - Folds
> BADBOY5 - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - All-In $4540
> DIESELDYKE - returned ($2750) : not called
> *** SHOW DOWN ***
> DIESELDYKE - Shows [9h 8h] (One pair, eights)
> KRAZYD420 - Shows [10h Kd] (Two Pair, kings and tens)
> KRAZYD420 Collects $17480 from main pot
> *** SUMMARY ***
> Total Pot($17480)
> Board [8s 10d 6h 3s Kc]
> Seat 1: ACESFULLLLL Folded on the TURN
> Seat 2: DIESELDYKE (dealer) HI:lost with One pair, eights [9h 8h -
> B:8s,P:8h,B:Kc,B:10d,P:9h]
> Seat 3: ZOOKA (small blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 4: BADBOY5 (big blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 5: KRUSHDOG Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 6: DABSBADS Folded on the FLOP
> Seat 7: KRAZYD420 won Total ($17480) All-In HI:($17480) with Two Pair,
> kings and tens [10h Kd - P:Kd,B:Kc,P:10h,B:10d,B:8s]
> Seat 8: APEX 10 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 9: DUHAST533 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
>
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7

_______________________________________________________________
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Date: 14 Dec
From: Tanya AKA MissT74
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

If I was him, I put you on a strong King only, perhaps AK. Seems a little
overzelous, the bet, like you're just begging me NOT to call.

A check raise on the turn would have had me convinced you had the str8, but then
hitting my 2nd pair on the river...yeah, I don't think I'm going anywhere, IF I
was to call the check raise on the turn.

The STRONG check raise on the turn would have had me folding my TPGK.

T

On Dec 13 2006 9:10 PM, pokerchimp wrote:

> I lost the hand, because he improved on the river. But nevertheless he
> took the maximum time to call and was speculating that I either slow
> played a flopped straight or set. OBviously that 's what I wanted him to
> think, although I didn't think he was so strong. At this pont in the
> tourney I was below average in chips but put him all in. What do you
> think of the play?
>
> Stage #574154357 Tourney ID 1319237 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No
> Limit $200 - 2006-12-13 22:33:21 (ET)
> Table: 54 (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer
> Seat 1 - ACESFULLLLL ($10430 in chips)
> Seat 2 - DIESELDYKE ($9890 in chips)
> Seat 3 - ZOOKA ($14200 in chips)
> Seat 4 - BADBOY5 ($8480 in chips)
> Seat 5 - KRUSHDOG ($8540 in chips)
> Seat 6 - DABSBADS ($6230 in chips)
> Seat 7 - KRAZYD420 ($7140 in chips)
> Seat 8 - APEX 10 ($8790 in chips)
> Seat 9 - DUHAST533 ($6145 in chips)
> ZOOKA - Posts small blind $100
> BADBOY5 - Posts big blind $200
> *** POCKET CARDS ***
> Dealt to DIESELDYKE [9h 8h]
> KRUSHDOG - Folds
> DABSBADS - Calls $200
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $200
> APEX 10 - Folds
> DUHAST533 - Folds
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $200
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $200
> ZOOKA - Calls $100
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> *** FLOP *** [8s 10d 6h]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $400
> DABSBADS - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $400
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $400
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $400
> ZOOKA - Calls $400
> *** TURN *** [8s 10d 6h] [3s]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $600
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $600
> ACESFULLLLL - Folds
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $600
> ZOOKA - Calls $600
> *** RIVER *** [8s 10d 6h 3s] [Kc]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> KRAZYD420 - Bets $1400
> DIESELDYKE - All-In(Raise) $8690 to $8690
> ZOOKA - Folds
> BADBOY5 - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - All-In $4540
> DIESELDYKE - returned ($2750) : not called
> *** SHOW DOWN ***
> DIESELDYKE - Shows [9h 8h] (One pair, eights)
> KRAZYD420 - Shows [10h Kd] (Two Pair, kings and tens)
> KRAZYD420 Collects $17480 from main pot
> *** SUMMARY ***
> Total Pot($17480)
> Board [8s 10d 6h 3s Kc]
> Seat 1: ACESFULLLLL Folded on the TURN
> Seat 2: DIESELDYKE (dealer) HI:lost with One pair, eights [9h 8h -
> B:8s,P:8h,B:Kc,B:10d,P:9h]
> Seat 3: ZOOKA (small blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 4: BADBOY5 (big blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 5: KRUSHDOG Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 6: DABSBADS Folded on the FLOP
> Seat 7: KRAZYD420 won Total ($17480) All-In HI:($17480) with Two Pair,
> kings and tens [10h Kd - P:Kd,B:Kc,P:10h,B:10d,B:8s]
> Seat 8: APEX 10 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 9: DUHAST533 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
>
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7

_______________________________________________________________
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Date: 13 Dec 2006 21:24:57
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

On Dec 13 2006 10:10 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:

> If I was him, I put you on a strong King only, perhaps AK. Seems a little
> overzelous, the bet, like you're just begging me NOT to call.
>
> A check raise on the turn would have had me convinced you had the str8, but
then
> hitting my 2nd pair on the river...yeah, I don't think I'm going anywhere,
IF I
> was to call the check raise on the turn.
>
> The STRONG check raise on the turn would have had me folding my TPGK.
>
> T

I agree that you would have been able to fold. Many others though, would
talk themselves into a call, which is why I don't care for the move on the
turn.

Fell
--
Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com

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Date: 14 Dec
From: Tanya AKA MissT74
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

On Dec 13 2006 10:24 PM, FellKnight wrote:

> On Dec 13 2006 10:10 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:
>
> > If I was him, I put you on a strong King only, perhaps AK. Seems a little
> > overzelous, the bet, like you're just begging me NOT to call.
> >
> > A check raise on the turn would have had me convinced you had the str8, but
> then
> > hitting my 2nd pair on the river...yeah, I don't think I'm going anywhere,
> IF I
> > was to call the check raise on the turn.
> >
> > The STRONG check raise on the turn would have had me folding my TPGK.
> >
> > T
>
> I agree that you would have been able to fold. Many others though, would
> talk themselves into a call, which is why I don't care for the move on the
> turn.
>

But you prefer it on the river after he's gotten another almost-free card??
Hmmm. That seems illogical to me.

T

> Fell
> --
> Website: http://www.fellknight.com/
> Email: fellknight at gmail dot com

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Date: 13 Dec 2006 21:43:26
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

On Dec 13 2006 10:36 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:

> On Dec 13 2006 10:24 PM, FellKnight wrote:
>
> > On Dec 13 2006 10:10 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:
> >
> > > If I was him, I put you on a strong King only, perhaps AK. Seems a little
> > > overzelous, the bet, like you're just begging me NOT to call.
> > >
> > > A check raise on the turn would have had me convinced you had the str8,
but
> > then
> > > hitting my 2nd pair on the river...yeah, I don't think I'm going
anywhere,
> > IF I
> > > was to call the check raise on the turn.
> > >
> > > The STRONG check raise on the turn would have had me folding my TPGK.
> > >
> > > T
> >
> > I agree that you would have been able to fold. Many others though, would
> > talk themselves into a call, which is why I don't care for the move on the
> > turn.
> >
>
> But you prefer it on the river after he's gotten another almost-free card??
> Hmmm. That seems illogical to me.
>
> T

The King is not likely to have hit anyone's hand, it did not complete any
draws, thus your move seems like it *has* to be read for a flopped monster.

Fell
--
Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com

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Date: 14 Dec
From: Tanya AKA MissT74
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

On Dec 13 2006 10:43 PM, FellKnight wrote:

> On Dec 13 2006 10:36 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:
>
> > On Dec 13 2006 10:24 PM, FellKnight wrote:
> >
> > > On Dec 13 2006 10:10 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:
> > >
> > > > If I was him, I put you on a strong King only, perhaps AK. Seems a
> > > > little
> > > > overzelous, the bet, like you're just begging me NOT to call.
> > > >
> > > > A check raise on the turn would have had me convinced you had the str8,
> but
> > > then
> > > > hitting my 2nd pair on the river...yeah, I don't think I'm going
> anywhere,
> > > IF I
> > > > was to call the check raise on the turn.
> > > >
> > > > The STRONG check raise on the turn would have had me folding my TPGK.
> > > >
> > > > T
> > >
> > > I agree that you would have been able to fold. Many others though, would
> > > talk themselves into a call, which is why I don't care for the move on the
> > > turn.
> > >
> >
> > But you prefer it on the river after he's gotten another almost-free card??
> > Hmmm. That seems illogical to me.
> >
> > T
>
> The King is not likely to have hit anyone's hand, it did not complete any
> draws, thus your move seems like it *has* to be read for a flopped monster.
>
> Fell

Hmmm. I would say Oh Contrair Mon Frair, as it seems to be a huge scare card as
would an Ace. But I do see your point, I agreed that in the LOOOOONG run it's
probably +EV, but still, just seemed SO OBVIOUS to me.

Results orientated, perhaps??

T

> --
> Website: http://www.fellknight.com/
> Email: fellknight at gmail dot com

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Date: 13 Dec 2006 22:21:53
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

On Dec 13 2006 10:52 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:

> On Dec 13 2006 10:43 PM, FellKnight wrote:
>
> > On Dec 13 2006 10:36 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:
> >
> > > On Dec 13 2006 10:24 PM, FellKnight wrote:
> > >
> > > > On Dec 13 2006 10:10 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:
> > > >
> > > > > If I was him, I put you on a strong King only, perhaps AK. Seems a
> > > > > little
> > > > > overzelous, the bet, like you're just begging me NOT to call.
> > > > >
> > > > > A check raise on the turn would have had me convinced you had the
str8,
> > but
> > > > then
> > > > > hitting my 2nd pair on the river...yeah, I don't think I'm going
> > anywhere,
> > > > IF I
> > > > > was to call the check raise on the turn.
> > > > >
> > > > > The STRONG check raise on the turn would have had me folding my
TPGK.
> > > > >
> > > > > T
> > > >
> > > > I agree that you would have been able to fold. Many others though,
would
> > > > talk themselves into a call, which is why I don't care for the move on
the
> > > > turn.
> > > >
> > >
> > > But you prefer it on the river after he's gotten another almost-free
card??
> > > Hmmm. That seems illogical to me.
> > >
> > > T
> >
> > The King is not likely to have hit anyone's hand, it did not complete any
> > draws, thus your move seems like it *has* to be read for a flopped monster.
> >
> > Fell
>
> Hmmm. I would say Oh Contrair Mon Frair, as it seems to be a huge scare card
as
> would an Ace. But I do see your point, I agreed that in the LOOOOONG run it's
> probably +EV, but still, just seemed SO OBVIOUS to me.
>
> Results orientated, perhaps??
>
> T

C'est possible, ma chere.

Fell
--
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Email: fellknight at gmail dot com

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Date: 14 Dec 17:37:51
From: steve1127
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

On Dec 14 2006 12:43 AM, FellKnight wrote:

> On Dec 13 2006 10:36 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:
>
> > On Dec 13 2006 10:24 PM, FellKnight wrote:
> >
> > > On Dec 13 2006 10:10 PM, Tanya AKA MissT74 wrote:
> > >
> > > > If I was him, I put you on a strong King only, perhaps AK. Seems a
> > > > little
> > > > overzelous, the bet, like you're just begging me NOT to call.
> > > >
> > > > A check raise on the turn would have had me convinced you had the str8,
> but
> > > then
> > > > hitting my 2nd pair on the river...yeah, I don't think I'm going
> anywhere,
> > > IF I
> > > > was to call the check raise on the turn.
> > > >
> > > > The STRONG check raise on the turn would have had me folding my TPGK.
> > > >
> > > > T
> > >
> > > I agree that you would have been able to fold. Many others though, would
> > > talk themselves into a call, which is why I don't care for the move on the
> > > turn.
> > >
> >
> > But you prefer it on the river after he's gotten another almost-free card??
> > Hmmm. That seems illogical to me.
> >
> > T
>
> The King is not likely to have hit anyone's hand, it did not complete any
> draws, thus your move seems like it *has* to be read for a flopped monster.
>
Or a "shit, I missed my draw but there's money in the pot" play.

> Fell
> --
> Website: http://www.fellknight.com/
> Email: fellknight at gmail dot com

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Date: 14 Dec
From: Big Dave
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

Remember you asked.....................I think the play sucks and is
---------------EV.

Who cares that you are below average = you are like 3rd on your table and the
blinds are SMALL in relation to your stack.

The river bettor bet about 25% of his chips and you've shown nothing so
far.....I'd put you on AK or KQ rather than big hand you want him to put you on.

Another wasted "fancy" play....................Like someone else said if you are
going to make a move, do it on the flop or the turn.

1BigDave

On Dec 13 2006 8:10 PM, pokerchimp wrote:

> I lost the hand, because he improved on the river. But nevertheless he
> took the maximum time to call and was speculating that I either slow
> played a flopped straight or set. OBviously that 's what I wanted him to
> think, although I didn't think he was so strong. At this pont in the
> tourney I was below average in chips but put him all in. What do you
> think of the play?
>
> Stage #574154357 Tourney ID 1319237 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No
> Limit $200 - 2006-12-13 22:33:21 (ET)
> Table: 54 (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer
> Seat 1 - ACESFULLLLL ($10430 in chips)
> Seat 2 - DIESELDYKE ($9890 in chips)
> Seat 3 - ZOOKA ($14200 in chips)
> Seat 4 - BADBOY5 ($8480 in chips)
> Seat 5 - KRUSHDOG ($8540 in chips)
> Seat 6 - DABSBADS ($6230 in chips)
> Seat 7 - KRAZYD420 ($7140 in chips)
> Seat 8 - APEX 10 ($8790 in chips)
> Seat 9 - DUHAST533 ($6145 in chips)
> ZOOKA - Posts small blind $100
> BADBOY5 - Posts big blind $200
> *** POCKET CARDS ***
> Dealt to DIESELDYKE [9h 8h]
> KRUSHDOG - Folds
> DABSBADS - Calls $200
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $200
> APEX 10 - Folds
> DUHAST533 - Folds
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $200
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $200
> ZOOKA - Calls $100
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> *** FLOP *** [8s 10d 6h]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $400
> DABSBADS - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $400
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $400
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $400
> ZOOKA - Calls $400
> *** TURN *** [8s 10d 6h] [3s]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $600
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $600
> ACESFULLLLL - Folds
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $600
> ZOOKA - Calls $600
> *** RIVER *** [8s 10d 6h 3s] [Kc]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> KRAZYD420 - Bets $1400
> DIESELDYKE - All-In(Raise) $8690 to $8690
> ZOOKA - Folds
> BADBOY5 - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - All-In $4540
> DIESELDYKE - returned ($2750) : not called
> *** SHOW DOWN ***
> DIESELDYKE - Shows [9h 8h] (One pair, eights)
> KRAZYD420 - Shows [10h Kd] (Two Pair, kings and tens)
> KRAZYD420 Collects $17480 from main pot
> *** SUMMARY ***
> Total Pot($17480)
> Board [8s 10d 6h 3s Kc]
> Seat 1: ACESFULLLLL Folded on the TURN
> Seat 2: DIESELDYKE (dealer) HI:lost with One pair, eights [9h 8h -
> B:8s,P:8h,B:Kc,B:10d,P:9h]
> Seat 3: ZOOKA (small blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 4: BADBOY5 (big blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 5: KRUSHDOG Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 6: DABSBADS Folded on the FLOP
> Seat 7: KRAZYD420 won Total ($17480) All-In HI:($17480) with Two Pair,
> kings and tens [10h Kd - P:Kd,B:Kc,P:10h,B:10d,B:8s]
> Seat 8: APEX 10 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 9: DUHAST533 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
>
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7

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Date: 13 Dec 2006 20:59:44
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

On Dec 13 2006 9:45 PM, Big Dave wrote:

> Remember you asked.....................I think the play sucks and is
> ---------------EV.
>
> Who cares that you are below average = you are like 3rd on your table and the
> blinds are SMALL in relation to your stack.
>
> The river bettor bet about 25% of his chips and you've shown nothing so
> far.....I'd put you on AK or KQ rather than big hand you want him to put you
on.
>
> Another wasted "fancy" play....................Like someone else said if you
are
> going to make a move, do it on the flop or the turn.
>
> 1BigDave

The problem with the flop or turn is that a Ten often talks himself into
calling. This is something you do NOT want (unless you actually have the
hand you are representing)..

If I know Chimp at all, her table image was very tight. AK and KQ can be
immediately discounted because of the called bets on the flop and turn.

There was 7000 in the pot. If this move succeeds (which it often will),
Chimp has used her position and image to double up without seeing a
showdown. This is a great tourney play.

Fell
--
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Email: fellknight at gmail dot com

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Date: 14 Dec
From: Tanya AKA MissT74
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

On Dec 13 2006 9:59 PM, FellKnight wrote:

> On Dec 13 2006 9:45 PM, Big Dave wrote:
>
> > Remember you asked.....................I think the play sucks and is
> > ---------------EV.
> >
> > Who cares that you are below average = you are like 3rd on your table and
> > the
> > blinds are SMALL in relation to your stack.
> >
> > The river bettor bet about 25% of his chips and you've shown nothing so
> > far.....I'd put you on AK or KQ rather than big hand you want him to put you
> on.
> >
> > Another wasted "fancy" play....................Like someone else said if you
> are
> > going to make a move, do it on the flop or the turn.
> >
> > 1BigDave
>
> The problem with the flop or turn is that a Ten often talks himself into
> calling. This is something you do NOT want (unless you actually have the
> hand you are representing)..
>
> If I know Chimp at all, her table image was very tight. AK and KQ can be
> immediately discounted because of the called bets on the flop and turn.
>
> There was 7000 in the pot. If this move succeeds (which it often will),
> Chimp has used her position and image to double up without seeing a
> showdown. This is a great tourney play.
>
> Fell

Ew, I disagree. It was such an OBVIOUS overbet and screamed DON'T CALL ME!!!
that I would have beat her into the pot with my two pair. Even if the King
DIDN'T come, I'm thinking my 10 is GOOD and she missed her draw.

You're just soooo aggresive, that's why you LOVED the play.

; )

T

> --
> Website: http://www.fellknight.com/
> Email: fellknight at gmail dot com

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Date: 13 Dec 2006 20:32:08
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

On Dec 13 2006 9:10 PM, pokerchimp wrote:

> I lost the hand, because he improved on the river. But nevertheless he
> took the maximum time to call and was speculating that I either slow
> played a flopped straight or set. OBviously that 's what I wanted him to
> think, although I didn't think he was so strong. At this pont in the
> tourney I was below average in chips but put him all in. What do you
> think of the play?

I love the play. Bad luck that he hit the King.

Fell
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Email: fellknight at gmail dot com

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Date: 13 Dec 2006 20:31:07
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

Date: 14 Dec 17:36:26
From: steve1127
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

On Dec 13 2006 11:10 PM, pokerchimp wrote:

> I lost the hand, because he improved on the river. But nevertheless he
> took the maximum time to call and was speculating that I either slow
> played a flopped straight or set. OBviously that 's what I wanted him to
> think, although I didn't think he was so strong. At this pont in the
> tourney I was below average in chips but put him all in. What do you
> think of the play?
>
I don't love it. I think if you're head's up it makes sense, but with two other
players left to act behind you, I think the risk/reward ratio isn't there. If
you are going to make a play at the pot, I like a smaller raise on the end, say
to $3500. That makes it look like you want a call. In this specific hand, it
doesn't matter as Krasyd will call with his top two anyway, but I think if i'm
in the hand with QT or something, I'm more likely to call a jam than a more
standard raise.

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Date: 14 Dec 2006 04:05:58
From: pokerchimp
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

Good discussion. I can see some merit on both sides, but I think under
the correct circumstances, it can win more often than not. First of all,
my table image is tight and to some degree weak tight. I've had the goods
whenever I've shown down and I haven't gotten out of line. He either has
to put me on one of 4 types of hands. str8, set, big king or smaller
pair, total bluff. Knowing my style of play, it's unlikely that I would
have a big king. It's also more likely I would have a set or str8 than
total bluff. I think raising on the turn might have been a viable option.
I know he would have folded if he had not hit is king. I misread his
value bet as more of a feeler bet, and he was conserving his chips in case
of a raise.

On Dec 13 2006 11:10 PM, pokerchimp wrote:

> I lost the hand, because he improved on the river. But nevertheless he
> took the maximum time to call and was speculating that I either slow
> played a flopped straight or set. OBviously that 's what I wanted him to
> think, although I didn't think he was so strong. At this pont in the
> tourney I was below average in chips but put him all in. What do you
> think of the play?
>
> Stage #574154357 Tourney ID 1319237 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No
> Limit $200 - 2006-12-13 22:33:21 (ET)
> Table: 54 (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer
> Seat 1 - ACESFULLLLL ($10430 in chips)
> Seat 2 - DIESELDYKE ($9890 in chips)
> Seat 3 - ZOOKA ($14200 in chips)
> Seat 4 - BADBOY5 ($8480 in chips)
> Seat 5 - KRUSHDOG ($8540 in chips)
> Seat 6 - DABSBADS ($6230 in chips)
> Seat 7 - KRAZYD420 ($7140 in chips)
> Seat 8 - APEX 10 ($8790 in chips)
> Seat 9 - DUHAST533 ($6145 in chips)
> ZOOKA - Posts small blind $100
> BADBOY5 - Posts big blind $200
> *** POCKET CARDS ***
> Dealt to DIESELDYKE [9h 8h]
> KRUSHDOG - Folds
> DABSBADS - Calls $200
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $200
> APEX 10 - Folds
> DUHAST533 - Folds
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $200
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $200
> ZOOKA - Calls $100
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> *** FLOP *** [8s 10d 6h]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $400
> DABSBADS - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $400
> ACESFULLLLL - Calls $400
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $400
> ZOOKA - Calls $400
> *** TURN *** [8s 10d 6h] [3s]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Bets $600
> KRAZYD420 - Calls $600
> ACESFULLLLL - Folds
> DIESELDYKE - Calls $600
> ZOOKA - Calls $600
> *** RIVER *** [8s 10d 6h 3s] [Kc]
> ZOOKA - Checks
> BADBOY5 - Checks
> KRAZYD420 - Bets $1400
> DIESELDYKE - All-In(Raise) $8690 to $8690
> ZOOKA - Folds
> BADBOY5 - Folds
> KRAZYD420 - All-In $4540
> DIESELDYKE - returned ($2750) : not called
> *** SHOW DOWN ***
> DIESELDYKE - Shows [9h 8h] (One pair, eights)
> KRAZYD420 - Shows [10h Kd] (Two Pair, kings and tens)
> KRAZYD420 Collects $17480 from main pot
> *** SUMMARY ***
> Total Pot($17480)
> Board [8s 10d 6h 3s Kc]
> Seat 1: ACESFULLLLL Folded on the TURN
> Seat 2: DIESELDYKE (dealer) HI:lost with One pair, eights [9h 8h -
> B:8s,P:8h,B:Kc,B:10d,P:9h]
> Seat 3: ZOOKA (small blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 4: BADBOY5 (big blind) Folded on the RIVER
> Seat 5: KRUSHDOG Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 6: DABSBADS Folded on the FLOP
> Seat 7: KRAZYD420 won Total ($17480) All-In HI:($17480) with Two Pair,
> kings and tens [10h Kd - P:Kd,B:Kc,P:10h,B:10d,B:8s]
> Seat 8: APEX 10 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
> Seat 9: DUHAST533 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
>
>
> thumbers on stars, dieseldyke on absolute/vegaspoker24/7

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Date: 14 Dec 2006 11:35:47
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Does this play have a +ev in the long run

> Good discussion. I can see some merit on both sides, but I think under
> the correct circumstances, it can win more often than not. First of all,
> my table image is tight and to some degree weak tight. I've had the goods
> whenever I've shown down and I haven't gotten out of line. He either has
> to put me on one of 4 types of hands. str8, set, big king or smaller
> pair, total bluff. Knowing my style of play, it's unlikely that I would
> have a big king. It's also more likely I would have a set or str8 than
> total bluff. I think raising on the turn might have been a viable option.
> I know he would have folded if he had not hit is king. I misread his
> value bet as more of a feeler bet, and he was conserving his chips in case
> of a raise.

Something to think about. While you know what your table image is, and
you know what your table image should look like, you have to make sure
that your opponents realize that as well. There's a real good chance he
saw "2 pair" and that's the extent of his thought process.

One of my favorite tricks is putting someone on exactly what they have,
betting so that it's 100% obvious to anyone paying attention that I have
what they have beat, being 100% correct with my read, and having them call
anyway.

Plays like this will only work against observant opponents.

Morphy
http://donkeymanifesto.blogspot.com

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