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Date: 29 Nov 2006 07:40:43
From: brewmaster
Subject: Correct betting
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Follow up on the thread on Russ betting advice (since that one has
degenerated into Brits flaming each other)....
If you are betting correctly (and by "correctly" I mean the generally
accepted bet around the size of the pot), most of your bets will not be
called (yes, some will, I said MOST will not be called, and I've played a
lot of hands and know this to be true). Therefore, if you OVERBET the
pot, the bets that DO get called will net you more money, and they will
probably be called at the same rate.
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Date: 29 Nov 17:05:23
From: Porsche_Dan
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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FYI, the Russ betting post was one of 20+ lessons available on the
www.pokermafia.com site. There is another one titled "reading bets and propper
betting" but the lessons are really a starting point for people to ask questions
and discuss, not an end result.
On Nov 29 2006 7:40 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> Follow up on the thread on Russ betting advice (since that one has
> degenerated into Brits flaming each other)....
>
>
> If you are betting correctly (and by "correctly" I mean the generally
> accepted bet around the size of the pot), most of your bets will not be
> called (yes, some will, I said MOST will not be called, and I've played a
> lot of hands and know this to be true). Therefore, if you OVERBET the
> pot, the bets that DO get called will net you more money, and they will
> probably be called at the same rate.
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 08:59:27
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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brewmaster wrote:
> Post flop the pot was 900 + 900 + 525 = 2325. I had about
> 3100 left in my stack (if I'm remembering all this correctly). I think my
> only move is to push, or check/fold. If I check here he's putting me all
> in for sure.
Well, shit. That's not much of an overbet.
His fold here is really awful, imho.
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 10:22:47
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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On Nov 29 2006 8:59 AM, David Nicoson wrote:
> brewmaster wrote:
> > Post flop the pot was 900 + 900 + 525 = 2325. I had about
> > 3100 left in my stack (if I'm remembering all this correctly). I think my
> > only move is to push, or check/fold. If I check here he's putting me all
> > in for sure.
>
> Well, shit. That's not much of an overbet.
>
> His fold here is really awful, imho.
Chip count may be quite far off actually, it was a long time ago. I
remember it as being quite a big overbet at the time, so maybe I had quite
a bit more. I remember he would have been putting his tourney life at
stake if he called (at least he would have been crippled). I don't think
I could have folded there.
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 08:58:38
From: Grip
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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I was just reading the LGB last night and PG talks about varying the
size of the river bet from under to over the "correct size" (ie
whatever the most is you think your opponent will call) in order to
diguise your hand.
Now reading the past few threads I realize that's all and good for Phil
Gordon where many of his opponents analyze his play, but at the non-pro
levels, esp on a large online site it's worthless. Who's going to see
enough of my river bets and keep track of whether I bet 5/4 pot or 2/3
pot?
Now as far as Russ' advice, the issue I have with it is that I don't
always know whether I want my opponent to call or fold. Maybe I'm not
skilled enough yet, but I can't always nail my opponent on a hand by
the river. I come to showdown with the 3rd nut hand and there's been
strength on both sides. Or a scare card hits on the river. If I don't
know I value bet.
That said, I do like the idea of betting bigger when I have the nuts
and will be experimenting with that.
G
brewmaster wrote:
> Follow up on the thread on Russ betting advice (since that one has
> degenerated into Brits flaming each other)....
>
>
> If you are betting correctly (and by "correctly" I mean the generally
> accepted bet around the size of the pot), most of your bets will not be
> called (yes, some will, I said MOST will not be called, and I've played a
> lot of hands and know this to be true). Therefore, if you OVERBET the
> pot, the bets that DO get called will net you more money, and they will
> probably be called at the same rate.
>
> ---
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 08:55:58
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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brewmaster wrote:
> On Nov 29 2006 8:10 AM, DennisP wrote:
>
> > Are you referring to every street or just river betting?
>
> Pretty much every street. You should be betting with the best hand, or a
> very strong draw, and your bets should be designed to induce either a bad
> call, or a fold. As I said, most of your good bets will not be called (at
> least not by good players).
>
> I have a really good example.
>
> $1000 buy in Festa Del Lago at Bellagio a couple years back. I have JJ in
> middle position, and raise 4xBB. Asher Derai calls from the button. Flop
> 2d3d5c (IIRC). I move in. Asher thinks for a very long time, and finally
> folds, showing AdQd. He said if he could have put me on JJ or less he
> would have called, but there was a possibility that I had AA or KK, and
> that would have made it a bad call on his part. But look what he folded:
> nut flush draw, straight draw, and two overs. Believe me, I DID NOT want
> a call there. Almost every internet player would call there (and Nick
> Wool's chips would be in the pot before mine were).
He still has 15 outs against KK, so he's really only making a chip EV
mistake against AA or better. Despite what he said, I think you got a
fold here because your opponent didn't want to coin flip for all his
chips.
It seems this strategy can be countered with an extremely simple one:
call preflop with lots of hands and call the flop push with any hand
that's a favorite to one pair.
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 08:26:10
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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brewmaster wrote:
> Therefore, if you OVERBET the
> pot, the bets that DO get called will net you more money, and they will
> probably be called at the same rate.
I don't expect overbets to be called at the same rate as pot-sized
bets. If our opponents do behave that way, then overbetting makes
sense.
On the other hand, if our opponents call our overbet only when they
have hands that justify it, then we lose value.
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 08:10:56
From: DennisP
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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Are you referring to every street or just river betting?
brewmaster wrote:
> Follow up on the thread on Russ betting advice (since that one has
> degenerated into Brits flaming each other)....
>
>
> If you are betting correctly (and by "correctly" I mean the generally
> accepted bet around the size of the pot), most of your bets will not be
> called (yes, some will, I said MOST will not be called, and I've played a
> lot of hands and know this to be true). Therefore, if you OVERBET the
> pot, the bets that DO get called will net you more money, and they will
> probably be called at the same rate.
>
> ---
> RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 08:31:33
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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On Nov 29 2006 8:10 AM, DennisP wrote:
> Are you referring to every street or just river betting?
Pretty much every street. You should be betting with the best hand, or a
very strong draw, and your bets should be designed to induce either a bad
call, or a fold. As I said, most of your good bets will not be called (at
least not by good players).
I have a really good example.
$1000 buy in Festa Del Lago at Bellagio a couple years back. I have JJ in
middle position, and raise 4xBB. Asher Derai calls from the button. Flop
2d3d5c (IIRC). I move in. Asher thinks for a very long time, and finally
folds, showing AdQd. He said if he could have put me on JJ or less he
would have called, but there was a possibility that I had AA or KK, and
that would have made it a bad call on his part. But look what he folded:
nut flush draw, straight draw, and two overs. Believe me, I DID NOT want
a call there. Almost every internet player would call there (and Nick
Wool's chips would be in the pot before mine were).
>
> brewmaster wrote:
> > Follow up on the thread on Russ betting advice (since that one has
> > degenerated into Brits flaming each other)....
> >
> >
> > If you are betting correctly (and by "correctly" I mean the generally
> > accepted bet around the size of the pot), most of your bets will not be
> > called (yes, some will, I said MOST will not be called, and I've played a
> > lot of hands and know this to be true). Therefore, if you OVERBET the
> > pot, the bets that DO get called will net you more money, and they will
> > probably be called at the same rate.
> >
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Date: 29 Nov 17:13:54
From: Nick Wool
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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On Nov 29 2006 4:31 PM, brewmaster wrote:
> On Nov 29 2006 8:10 AM, DennisP wrote:
>
> > Are you referring to every street or just river betting?
>
> Pretty much every street. You should be betting with the best hand, or a
> very strong draw, and your bets should be designed to induce either a bad
> call, or a fold. As I said, most of your good bets will not be called (at
> least not by good players).
>
> I have a really good example.
>
> $1000 buy in Festa Del Lago at Bellagio a couple years back. I have JJ in
> middle position, and raise 4xBB. Asher Derai calls from the button. Flop
> 2d3d5c (IIRC). I move in. Asher thinks for a very long time, and finally
> folds, showing AdQd. He said if he could have put me on JJ or less he
> would have called, but there was a possibility that I had AA or KK, and
> that would have made it a bad call on his part. But look what he folded:
> nut flush draw, straight draw, and two overs. Believe me, I DID NOT want
> a call there. Almost every internet player would call there (and Nick
> Wool's chips would be in the pot before mine were).
>
Depends really; on the bubble, or near a major increase in prize money, a
marginal fold for me, but early late stage when nowhere the money, yes, I would
have beaten you to the pot.
But back to your OP...you always want a call when you bet? I certainly don't.
So what's with this lark?:
'Therefore, if you OVERBET the pot, the bets that DO get called will net you
more money, and they will probably be called at the same rate.'
On the flipside, the bets that do get called will lose you more money when you
are stealing, or value betting a semi-strong hand, no?
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 16:40:57
From: Palooka
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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"brewmaster" <brewmaster@brewcam.com > wrote in message
news:58p044xdll.ln2@recgroups.com...
> On Nov 29 2006 8:10 AM, DennisP wrote:
>
>> Are you referring to every street or just river betting?
>
> Pretty much every street. You should be betting with the best hand, or a
> very strong draw, and your bets should be designed to induce either a bad
> call, or a fold. As I said, most of your good bets will not be called (at
> least not by good players).
>
> I have a really good example.
>
> $1000 buy in Festa Del Lago at Bellagio a couple years back. I have JJ in
> middle position, and raise 4xBB. Asher Derai calls from the button. Flop
> 2d3d5c (IIRC). I move in. Asher thinks for a very long time, and finally
> folds, showing AdQd. He said if he could have put me on JJ or less he
> would have called, but there was a possibility that I had AA or KK, and
> that would have made it a bad call on his part. But look what he folded:
> nut flush draw, straight draw, and two overs. Believe me, I DID NOT want
> a call there. Almost every internet player would call there (and Nick
> Wool's chips would be in the pot before mine were).
>
Interesting hand. What were the blinds, and approximate stack sizes?
Thanks,
Palooka
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 08:53:04
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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On Nov 29 2006 8:40 AM, Palooka wrote:
> "brewmaster" <brewmaster@brewcam.com> wrote in message
> news:58p044xdll.ln2@recgroups.com...
> > On Nov 29 2006 8:10 AM, DennisP wrote:
> >
> >> Are you referring to every street or just river betting?
> >
> > Pretty much every street. You should be betting with the best hand, or a
> > very strong draw, and your bets should be designed to induce either a bad
> > call, or a fold. As I said, most of your good bets will not be called (at
> > least not by good players).
> >
> > I have a really good example.
> >
> > $1000 buy in Festa Del Lago at Bellagio a couple years back. I have JJ in
> > middle position, and raise 4xBB. Asher Derai calls from the button. Flop
> > 2d3d5c (IIRC). I move in. Asher thinks for a very long time, and finally
> > folds, showing AdQd. He said if he could have put me on JJ or less he
> > would have called, but there was a possibility that I had AA or KK, and
> > that would have made it a bad call on his part. But look what he folded:
> > nut flush draw, straight draw, and two overs. Believe me, I DID NOT want
> > a call there. Almost every internet player would call there (and Nick
> > Wool's chips would be in the pot before mine were).
> >
> Interesting hand. What were the blinds, and approximate stack sizes?
>
You would ask me that.
I think it was the 100/200/25 level (one hour rounds, started at 25/25, so
it took quite some time to get here). I think I had like 4k...a few hands
before I knocked out another "pro" (don't remember who now exactly) with
JJ when we got it all in on a flop of J9x and he held 99. I think Asher
had around 6k. I think I raised to 900 preflop (the pot was 200 + 100 +
9*25 = 525). Post flop the pot was 900 + 900 + 525 = 2325. I had about
3100 left in my stack (if I'm remembering all this correctly). I think my
only move is to push, or check/fold. If I check here he's putting me all
in for sure.
I did cash in that tourney, by the way. Asher got knocked out on a crazy
hand by Quiet Lion.
> Thanks,
> Palooka
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 12:21:55
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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On Nov 29 2006 9:31 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> On Nov 29 2006 8:10 AM, DennisP wrote:
>
> > Are you referring to every street or just river betting?
>
> Pretty much every street. You should be betting with the best hand, or a
> very strong draw, and your bets should be designed to induce either a bad
> call, or a fold. As I said, most of your good bets will not be called (at
> least not by good players).
>
> I have a really good example.
>
> $1000 buy in Festa Del Lago at Bellagio a couple years back. I have JJ in
> middle position, and raise 4xBB. Asher Derai calls from the button. Flop
> 2d3d5c (IIRC). I move in. Asher thinks for a very long time, and finally
> folds, showing AdQd. He said if he could have put me on JJ or less he
> would have called, but there was a possibility that I had AA or KK, and
> that would have made it a bad call on his part. But look what he folded:
> nut flush draw, straight draw, and two overs. Believe me, I DID NOT want
> a call there. Almost every internet player would call there (and Nick
> Wool's chips would be in the pot before mine were).
I think it was a poor fold on his part. He would have been correct to
call you even had you shown him KK.
Fell
--
Website: www.fellknight.com
Email: fellknight at gmail dot com
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 14:06:19
From: Old Wolf
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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brewmaster wrote:
> If you are betting correctly (and by "correctly" I mean the generally
> accepted bet around the size of the pot), most of your bets will not be
> called (yes, some will, I said MOST will not be called, and I've played a
> lot of hands and know this to be true). Therefore, if you OVERBET the
> pot, the bets that DO get called will net you more money, and they will
> probably be called at the same rate.
I noticed this, when I was dogmatically following the strategy
of always betting the pot (as opposed to a lesser raise) in
Pot Limit HE. I rarely got called, but when I did, it was a monster
pot. When following this strategy I was also able to bluff people
off a better hand occasionally, some people don't like to risk a lot
on marginal hands.
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Date: 30 Nov 2006 02:48:31
From: ben carr
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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One problem I have with overbetting is its riskier. The swings will be
greater and you will need a bigger stack to withstand the losses when
they happen. Against a good player you wont get away with overbetting.
He will catch on to your play eventually. At least he will be cautious
when you overbet, making it harder for you to get paid off. If your
stack is large enough and your opponent is bad enough the overbet is
perfect.
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Date: 29 Nov 21:29:48
From: Follow
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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On Nov 29 2006 8:40 AM, brewmaster wrote:
> Follow up on the thread on Russ betting advice (since that one has
> degenerated into Brits flaming each other)....
By the way, I'm not a brit, dammit. :P
Follow :)
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Date: 29 Nov 2006 13:48:49
From: brewmaster
Subject: Re: Correct betting
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On Nov 29 2006 1:29 PM, Follow wrote:
> On Nov 29 2006 8:40 AM, brewmaster wrote:
>
> > Follow up on the thread on Russ betting advice (since that one has
> > degenerated into Brits flaming each other)....
>
> By the way, I'm not a brit, dammit. :P
>
I was talking about Nick and Zen, to be specific.
>
>
>
> Follow :)
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