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Date: 18 Dec 2006 10:43:30
From: John B.
Subject: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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What are the odds of catching pocket Aces two hands in a row?
Happened to me the other night at a local charity tournie. First time, I
made a 3x BB raise and everyone folded. Showed the AA. Second time, made
the same raise, but got one caller. (Thought I was bluffing/stealing??) No
fear with a flop of 9-8-3 rainbow. Other player goes all-in. I call,
figuring A-9. Nope. 9-8o. I was out. "Nice call 9-8 offsuit!"
Gotta love charity poker players.
John B.
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Date: 18 Dec 2006 09:38:42
From: Charles Darwin
Subject: Re: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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Ian Stuart wrote:
> On Dec 18 2006 3:43 PM, John B. wrote:
>
> > What are the odds of catching pocket Aces two hands in a row?
> >
> > Happened to me the other night at a local charity tournie. First time, I
> > made a 3x BB raise and everyone folded. Showed the AA. Second time, made
> > the same raise, but got one caller. (Thought I was bluffing/stealing??) No
> > fear with a flop of 9-8-3 rainbow. Other player goes all-in. I call,
> > figuring A-9. Nope. 9-8o. I was out. "Nice call 9-8 offsuit!"
> >
> > Gotta love charity poker players.
> >
> > John B.
>
>
> This may seem like a flame reply, but I am actually trying to help you.
>
> 1. In what way do you believe knowing the odds of flopping aces two hands
> in a row can actually benefit your game?
>
> 2. Why did you show your aces in the first hand? What benefit did you
> think you might gain from that?
>
> 3. What do you think is the bigger error in NL? Calling a small proportion
> of your stack preflop with a drawing hand, or calling all your stack on
> the flop with only an over pair?
>
> 4. If you are still upset about this hand days after it happened maybe you
> have to work on your emotional control.
>
> 5. If you think this hand counts as a semi-BAHH (ie only slightly boring
> as opposed to completely boring) maybe you don't get out enough.
>
> 6. Why did you specifically put your opponent on A9? There are umpteen
> other hands you were also ahead of. Clearly a set or two pair is out of
> the question so I understand why you ruled out hands that had you beat.
>
> 7. Why are you slagging off "charity poker players"? Isn't that what you
> were on the night?
>
> Merry Christmas
>
> ________________________________________________________________________
> RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com
I think the odds of getting pocket aces, or any two hands, twice in a
row, is the same as getting pocket aces once. Odds don't have memories.
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Date: 18 Dec 2006 13:36:36
From: John B.
Subject: Re: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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> I think the odds of getting pocket aces, or any two hands, twice in a
> row, is the same as getting pocket aces once. Odds don't have memories.
>
The question wasn't "I got pocket Aces, what are the odds I get them in the
next hand?" If so, your answer is correct. But that's not what I asked.
With your answer, the odds would be the same getting them twice in a row as
they would be getting them 10 times in a row, which they could not be. Even
*I* know THAT.
John B.
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Date: 18 Dec 2006 09:00:16
From: Ian Stuart
Subject: Re: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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On Dec 18 2006 3:43 PM, John B. wrote:
> What are the odds of catching pocket Aces two hands in a row?
>
> Happened to me the other night at a local charity tournie. First time, I
> made a 3x BB raise and everyone folded. Showed the AA. Second time, made
> the same raise, but got one caller. (Thought I was bluffing/stealing??) No
> fear with a flop of 9-8-3 rainbow. Other player goes all-in. I call,
> figuring A-9. Nope. 9-8o. I was out. "Nice call 9-8 offsuit!"
>
> Gotta love charity poker players.
>
> John B.
This may seem like a flame reply, but I am actually trying to help you.
1. In what way do you believe knowing the odds of flopping aces two hands
in a row can actually benefit your game?
2. Why did you show your aces in the first hand? What benefit did you
think you might gain from that?
3. What do you think is the bigger error in NL? Calling a small proportion
of your stack preflop with a drawing hand, or calling all your stack on
the flop with only an over pair?
4. If you are still upset about this hand days after it happened maybe you
have to work on your emotional control.
5. If you think this hand counts as a semi-BAHH (ie only slightly boring
as opposed to completely boring) maybe you don't get out enough.
6. Why did you specifically put your opponent on A9? There are umpteen
other hands you were also ahead of. Clearly a set or two pair is out of
the question so I understand why you ruled out hands that had you beat.
7. Why are you slagging off "charity poker players"? Isn't that what you
were on the night?
Merry Christmas
________________________________________________________________________
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com
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Date: 18 Dec 2006 12:53:26
From: John B.
Subject: Re: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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> 1. In what way do you believe knowing the odds of flopping aces two hands
> in a row can actually benefit your game?
I don't. Was just curious.
>
> 2. Why did you show your aces in the first hand? What benefit did you
> think you might gain from that?
>
Uhm, I felt like it.
> 3. What do you think is the bigger error in NL? Calling a small proportion
> of your stack preflop with a drawing hand, or calling all your stack on
> the flop with only an over pair?
>
With a ragged flop - B.
> 4. If you are still upset about this hand days after it happened maybe you
> have to work on your emotional control.
>
I'm not. First time on rgp since then.
> 5. If you think this hand counts as a semi-BAHH (ie only slightly boring
> as opposed to completely boring) maybe you don't get out enough.
>
I don't.
> 6. Why did you specifically put your opponent on A9? There are umpteen
> other hands you were also ahead of. Clearly a set or two pair is out of
> the question so I understand why you ruled out hands that had you beat.
>
The player.
> 7. Why are you slagging off "charity poker players"? Isn't that what you
> were on the night?
>
Yes. Not much for B&M choices in these parts.
> Merry Christmas
>
> ________________________________________________________________________
> RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com
>
>
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Date: 18 Dec 2006 13:11:29
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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John B. wrote:
> What are the odds of catching pocket Aces two hands in a row?
1 / (((4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2))^2) = 48,841
48,481:1
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Date: 19 Dec 2006 08:20:25
From: John B.
Subject: Re: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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Wow - figured it was up there. Just never happened to me before. Thanks.
John B.
"David Nicoson" <bigdavex@yahoo.com > wrote in message
news:1166476289.222987.96930@73g2000cwn.googlegroups.com...
> John B. wrote:
> > What are the odds of catching pocket Aces two hands in a row?
>
> 1 / (((4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2))^2) = 48,841
>
> 48,481:1
>
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Date: 19 Dec 2006 02:58:26
From: ben carr
Subject: Re: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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What flops and or action would get you to fold aces? I think you would
go broke with them, and several other hands, any time you have them.
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Date: 19 Dec 2006 08:18:57
From: John B.
Subject: Re: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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Yeah, I find it hard to believe that Charles Darwin would fold pockets Aces
with a rainbow flop of 983. Why even play poker then??
John B.
"ben carr" <up-high@webtv.net > wrote in message
news:528-45879BA2-1182@storefull-3356.bay.webtv.net...
> What flops and or action would get you to fold aces? I think you would
> go broke with them, and several other hands, any time you have them.
>
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Date: 18 Dec 2006 13:00:59
From: Old Wolf
Subject: Re: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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Charles Darwin wrote:
> I think the odds of getting pocket aces, or any two hands, twice in a
> row, is the same as getting pocket aces once. Odds don't have memories.
Dr Zen? Is that you?
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Date: 19 Dec 2006 06:22:42
From: David Nicoson
Subject: Re: AA odds question & semi-BAHH
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David Nicoson wrote:
> John B. wrote:
> > What are the odds of catching pocket Aces two hands in a row?
>
> 1 / (((4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2))^2) = 48,841
>
> 48,481:1
That's off by one, isn't it? 48,480:1
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