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Date: 14 Dec 2008 01:17:05
From: jonathan
Subject: more SEC domination to come
ok so Florida vs. Oklahoma. BLOWOUT

alabama vs. utah. BIGGER BLOWOUT.

you know, sometimes i ALMOST get tired of winning. not really though. i
hope in my lifetime there will be teams outside of driving distance that
can compete with SEC football.

we all know the REAL national title game has already been played, and
florida won. nuff said, run along now kids
-------------------------------
me and you... we'll never get along, i hate the way you play your hands
and you wear your gun all wrong

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Date: 14 Dec 2008 02:58:54
From: Deadmoney Walking
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
On Dec 14, 4:17=A0am, "jonathan" <aab1...@webnntp.invalid > wrote:
> ok so Florida vs. Oklahoma. BLOWOUT
>
> alabama vs. utah. BIGGER BLOWOUT.
>
> you know, sometimes i ALMOST get tired of winning. not really though. i
> hope in my lifetime there will be teams outside of driving distance that
> can compete with SEC football.
>
> we all know the REAL national title game has already been played, and
> florida won. nuff said, run along now kids
> -------------------------------
> me and you... we'll never get along, i hate the way you play your hands
> and you wear your gun all wrong
>
> ----=A0
> looking for a better newsgroup-reader? -www.recgroups.com

I dunno, I think Oklahoma will slow down after they put up 48 in the
3rd qtr.


  
Date: 17 Dec 2008 12:23:25
From: Deadmoney Walking
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
On Dec 15, 7:39=A0pm, "Will_gamble" <will_gamb...@yahoo.com > wrote:
> On Dec 15 2008 5:49 PM, Kyle T. Jones wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > I think there will be a lot of points scored in that game, regardless.
> > I think if they played next week, Oklahoma would come up with one or tw=
o
> > more stops than Florida and win by ten. =A0But, I don't have anything r=
eal
> > solid to back that up. =A0And when they play nearly a month after the
> > season ends, just about anything can happen.
>
> > I will admit this about the spread, Will: this season, it's been "bet
> > against Florida at your own risk"... I'm not sure they've missed a
> > spread all year, with the obvious exception of the Ole Miss game.
>
> > One thing I like about Oklahoma in this game: they've had a lot more
> > "tests" this year.
>
> > Half their games this year were against teams *currently* ranked in the
> > top-25. =A0Five of their twelve games were against teams currently rank=
ed
> > in the top *half* of the top-25.
>
> > That's a lot of big games. =A0AFAIK, they have more victories over
> > currently ranked teams than any other squad: wins against #7, #11, #12,
> > #13, and #21. =A0Obviously, those teams would all be ranked significant=
ly
> > higher if Oklahoma hadn't beaten (in some cases eviscerated) them.
>
> > Their single loss ain't too bad, either: loss to current #3.
>
> > Florida has played only three currently ranked teams, with wins against
> > current #4 Alabama and current #15 Georgia, and a loss to current #25
> > Ole Miss.
>
> > A lot has been made over the last two years about how Florida and LSU
> > had to run the SEC gauntlet to get into that championship game, and how
> > that helped prepare them. =A0I think it would be fair to say that this
> > year, the "gauntlet running" edge has to go to Oklahoma.
>
> > You know, this is all just fun and stuff for me. =A0I like to argue thi=
s
> > stuff back and forth. =A0I would give the edge to Oklahoma like I said,
> > but I think it's a pretty slim edge. =A0Like I said, I expect them to w=
in
> > by about 10, but anything can and will happen... this is, after all,
> > college football! =A0Exciting stuff! =A0<and, even though I'd rather se=
e a
> > college playoff, we *do* get a handful of really, really interesting
> > bowl matchups this year, as usual>
>
> > Did you know the Big Ten teams are dogs in all but one of their seven
> > bowls? =A0Ouch. =A0Getting tOSU into the BCS really hurt us in that reg=
ard.
>
> > Cheers.
>
> This may not be a valid opinion, but I think sometimes teams play to the
> level of their competition be it up or down. =A0I think that sometimes SE=
C
> teams take to much for granted OOC and don't do well. =A0It seems like th=
ey
> always play the big OOC games away also. =A0Maybe the annual west coast t=
rip
> for Tennessee is the only evidence of that, I am not sure.
>
> In several of these posts you have used Arkansas and Ole Miss' games as a
> benchmark and I think that shouldn't be done because they both had brand
> new coaches and systems that would yield unpredictable results, especiall=
y
> early.
>
> If I were betting money on it I would probably take Oklahoma and the
> points. =A0You have made some very compelling points. =A0My only problem =
is
> that the SEC has such a forceful showing the last two years that they are
> hard to put in second place.
>
> It really is going to be an exciting game. =A0I wish we could all be
> together to watch it.
>
> -------=A0
> RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader :www.recgroups.com- Hide qu=
oted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

I just watched the Michigan-Florida Capital One Bowl. It will be
interesting to see if Fla improved their defense. They kind of took
that bowl game for granted and got stomped, it was such a screwy
season last year.


  
Date: 14 Dec 2008 17:09:27
From: CheckRazor
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
On Dec 14, 5:16=A0am, "Will_gamble" <will_gamb...@yahoo.com > wrote:
>
> The big 12 has 2 teams in the top 25 and the SEC has 6. =A0

>>>I don't know what polls you're looking at, but the ones I see have five =
teams from the Big 12 in the top 25, and only 4 four teams from the SEC in =
the top 25.

Maybe you should quit squirting water up your ass. That's just
weird.


   
Date: 14 Dec 2008 17:44:22
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
On Dec 14 2008 7:09 PM, CheckRazor wrote:

> On Dec 14, 5:16 am, "Will_gamble" <will_gamb...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> >
> > The big 12 has 2 teams in the top 25 and the SEC has 6.  
>
> >>>I don't know what polls you're looking at, but the ones I see have five
teams from the Big 12 in
> the top 25, and only 4 four teams from the SEC in the top 25.
>
> Maybe you should quit squirting water up your ass. That's just
> weird.


I don't know why I bother to respond other than to show you are full of
it. Here is my source, be so kind as to post yours if you actually have
one.

http://tinyurl.com/6cyfev

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/stats/byteam?cat1=defense&cat2=Total&sort=1137&conference=I-A_all&year=2008

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Date: 14 Dec 2008 04:16:11
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
On Dec 14 2008 4:58 AM, Deadmoney Walking wrote:

> I dunno, I think Oklahoma will slow down after they put up 48 in the
> 3rd qtr.

The thing that is hard to factor in is defense. Florida is 5th in points
per game allowed in a pretty good offensive conference. 12.8

Oklahoma is 57th on the same list allowing 24.5 pts per game.

The big 12 has 2 teams in the top 25 and the SEC has 6.

I think Florida can match Oklahoma in offense and will win on defense.
The net effect will be Florida by two touchdowns.

But then again, I thought Colt McCoy would win a sympathy Heisman.

It will be a really good game.

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Date: 14 Dec 2008 07:18:53
From: Raider Fan
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
On Dec 14 2008 6:16 AM, Will_gamble wrote:

>
> The thing that is hard to factor in is defense. Florida is 5th in points
> per game allowed in a pretty good offensive conference.

What? The SEC is far from a "pretty good offenisve conference". They
wouldn't be 5th playing in the Big 12 South. No team is going to have
good defensive stats playing there.

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Date: 14 Dec 2008 16:00:10
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
On Dec 14 2008 9:18 AM, Raider Fan wrote:

> On Dec 14 2008 6:16 AM, Will_gamble wrote:
>
> >
> > The thing that is hard to factor in is defense. Florida is 5th in points
> > per game allowed in a pretty good offensive conference.
>
> What? The SEC is far from a "pretty good offenisve conference". They
> wouldn't be 5th playing in the Big 12 South. No team is going to have
> good defensive stats playing there.

Remember this one Raider so I won't have to look it up after the game when
I will be telling you I told you so.

I believe Florida will show you what defense is missing in the big 12.

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Date: 15 Dec 2008 13:43:37
From: Kyle T. Jones
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
Will_gamble, my dear, dear friend, there was this time, oh, 12/14/2008
6:00 PM or thereabouts, when you let the following craziness loose on
Usenet:
> On Dec 14 2008 9:18 AM, Raider Fan wrote:
>
>> On Dec 14 2008 6:16 AM, Will_gamble wrote:
>>
>>> The thing that is hard to factor in is defense. Florida is 5th in points
>>> per game allowed in a pretty good offensive conference.
>> What? The SEC is far from a "pretty good offenisve conference". They
>> wouldn't be 5th playing in the Big 12 South. No team is going to have
>> good defensive stats playing there.
>
> Remember this one Raider so I won't have to look it up after the game when
> I will be telling you I told you so.
>
> I believe Florida will show you what defense is missing in the big 12.
>

The problem is that all the "power D" stats that are boosting the SEC
are from in-conference games.

I'm actually surprised that they use in-conference stats in this way.
They're completely circular, like in-conference win/loss records. If
your in-conference "d" stats are great, your in-conference "o" stats
aren't gonna be great. And vice-versa.

If you look at just the OOC games played by the SEC and the Big XII, I
don't believe they support the idea that the SEC has played good defense
this year. Have I gone over all of these? I know I did on the football
newsgroup. Anyhow, if this is a repeat, I apologize:

For instance, Georgia Tech scored more points against Georgia (45) than
against any other team this season. That includes a game against
Jackson State. They played one other SEC team, scoring 38 against Ole
Miss. Speaking of Ole Miss, they let Louisiana Tech and Middle
Tennessee score 22 against them. Each. For Middle Tennessee, that's
more points than they scored against all but one of their Sun belt
conference foes.

Wake Forest averaged ~10 points more in their two SEC games (Miss and
Vandy) than they did the rest of the season.

Texas put up 52 against Arkansas. That's more than they scored against
any Big XII opponent with one exception (Missouri). It's the same
amount they put up OOC against Rice and Florida Atlantic, and more
points than they scored OOC against UTEP.

UCLA put up 27 against Tennessee. That's roughly what they scored
against Washington and Washington State (27 and 28), and well over their
season average. Four teams in the Pac Ten held them to 10 points or
less. BYU held them to zero.

Clemson scored 31 against S. Carolina a couple weekw ago. Again, that's
about ~10 points more than they averaged against their ACC opponents.

So, my question:

If the SEC defenses (other than Florida and Alabama) are so great, why
did almost every OOC offense they played have a better than average game
against them?

(To be clear, I think Florida played good defense this year, I think
Alabama played good defense this year, and even LSU, although they
weren't a good team overall. But the idea that playing these bigtime
SEC defenses has been oh-so-tough for Tebow, and especially any argument
along these lines in the context of the hypesman, is simply absurd).


      
Date: 15 Dec 2008 13:08:05
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
On Dec 15 2008 1:43 PM, Kyle T. Jones wrote:

> Will_gamble, my dear, dear friend, there was this time, oh, 12/14/2008
> 6:00 PM or thereabouts, when you let the following craziness loose on
> Usenet:
> > On Dec 14 2008 9:18 AM, Raider Fan wrote:
> >
> >> On Dec 14 2008 6:16 AM, Will_gamble wrote:
> >>
> >>> The thing that is hard to factor in is defense. Florida is 5th in points
> >>> per game allowed in a pretty good offensive conference.
> >> What? The SEC is far from a "pretty good offenisve conference". They
> >> wouldn't be 5th playing in the Big 12 South. No team is going to have
> >> good defensive stats playing there.
> >
> > Remember this one Raider so I won't have to look it up after the game when
> > I will be telling you I told you so.
> >
> > I believe Florida will show you what defense is missing in the big 12.
> >
>
> The problem is that all the "power D" stats that are boosting the SEC
> are from in-conference games.
>
> I'm actually surprised that they use in-conference stats in this way.
> They're completely circular, like in-conference win/loss records. If
> your in-conference "d" stats are great, your in-conference "o" stats
> aren't gonna be great. And vice-versa.
>
> If you look at just the OOC games played by the SEC and the Big XII, I
> don't believe they support the idea that the SEC has played good defense
> this year. Have I gone over all of these? I know I did on the football
> newsgroup. Anyhow, if this is a repeat, I apologize:
>
> For instance, Georgia Tech scored more points against Georgia (45) than
> against any other team this season. That includes a game against
> Jackson State. They played one other SEC team, scoring 38 against Ole
> Miss. Speaking of Ole Miss, they let Louisiana Tech and Middle
> Tennessee score 22 against them. Each. For Middle Tennessee, that's
> more points than they scored against all but one of their Sun belt
> conference foes.
>
> Wake Forest averaged ~10 points more in their two SEC games (Miss and
> Vandy) than they did the rest of the season.
>
> Texas put up 52 against Arkansas. That's more than they scored against
> any Big XII opponent with one exception (Missouri). It's the same
> amount they put up OOC against Rice and Florida Atlantic, and more
> points than they scored OOC against UTEP.
>
> UCLA put up 27 against Tennessee. That's roughly what they scored
> against Washington and Washington State (27 and 28), and well over their
> season average. Four teams in the Pac Ten held them to 10 points or
> less. BYU held them to zero.
>
> Clemson scored 31 against S. Carolina a couple weekw ago. Again, that's
> about ~10 points more than they averaged against their ACC opponents.
>
> So, my question:
>
> If the SEC defenses (other than Florida and Alabama) are so great, why
> did almost every OOC offense they played have a better than average game
> against them?
>
> (To be clear, I think Florida played good defense this year, I think
> Alabama played good defense this year, and even LSU, although they
> weren't a good team overall. But the idea that playing these bigtime
> SEC defenses has been oh-so-tough for Tebow, and especially any argument
> along these lines in the context of the hypesman, is simply absurd).

I got focused on defense because of a pregame show I saw where they made a
point of it while comparing the conferences. As usual, you make all the
right points and it probably doesn't mean as much as I once thought. Ohio
state was #1 last year in defense and LSU #18 or so.

I really don't study statistics in anything but horse handicapping and
just go by my impressions whether they be from the media or just by what
I see. Your analysis often makes me think I am too impressionable when it
comes to the media's influence on me. None the less, my impression is
that Florida is the stakes horse in an allowance race. I think Oklahoma
was that way against TT. I don't know how to quantify that, but that is
just my feel for it.

I will ask this then... If Oklahoma is such an offensive machine and the
SEC plays mediocre defense, why is Florida a favorite? By what you say,
Oklahoma should be a 17 point favorite.

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Date: 15 Dec 2008 17:49:26
From: Kyle T. Jones
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
Will_gamble, my dear, dear friend, there was this time, oh, 12/15/2008
3:08 PM or thereabouts, when you let the following craziness loose on
Usenet:
> On Dec 15 2008 1:43 PM, Kyle T. Jones wrote:
>
>> Will_gamble, my dear, dear friend, there was this time, oh, 12/14/2008
>> 6:00 PM or thereabouts, when you let the following craziness loose on
>> Usenet:
>>> On Dec 14 2008 9:18 AM, Raider Fan wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Dec 14 2008 6:16 AM, Will_gamble wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> The thing that is hard to factor in is defense. Florida is 5th in points
>>>>> per game allowed in a pretty good offensive conference.
>>>> What? The SEC is far from a "pretty good offenisve conference". They
>>>> wouldn't be 5th playing in the Big 12 South. No team is going to have
>>>> good defensive stats playing there.
>>> Remember this one Raider so I won't have to look it up after the game when
>>> I will be telling you I told you so.
>>>
>>> I believe Florida will show you what defense is missing in the big 12.
>>>
>> The problem is that all the "power D" stats that are boosting the SEC
>> are from in-conference games.
>>
>> I'm actually surprised that they use in-conference stats in this way.
>> They're completely circular, like in-conference win/loss records. If
>> your in-conference "d" stats are great, your in-conference "o" stats
>> aren't gonna be great. And vice-versa.
>>
>> If you look at just the OOC games played by the SEC and the Big XII, I
>> don't believe they support the idea that the SEC has played good defense
>> this year. Have I gone over all of these? I know I did on the football
>> newsgroup. Anyhow, if this is a repeat, I apologize:
>>
>> For instance, Georgia Tech scored more points against Georgia (45) than
>> against any other team this season. That includes a game against
>> Jackson State. They played one other SEC team, scoring 38 against Ole
>> Miss. Speaking of Ole Miss, they let Louisiana Tech and Middle
>> Tennessee score 22 against them. Each. For Middle Tennessee, that's
>> more points than they scored against all but one of their Sun belt
>> conference foes.
>>
>> Wake Forest averaged ~10 points more in their two SEC games (Miss and
>> Vandy) than they did the rest of the season.
>>
>> Texas put up 52 against Arkansas. That's more than they scored against
>> any Big XII opponent with one exception (Missouri). It's the same
>> amount they put up OOC against Rice and Florida Atlantic, and more
>> points than they scored OOC against UTEP.
>>
>> UCLA put up 27 against Tennessee. That's roughly what they scored
>> against Washington and Washington State (27 and 28), and well over their
>> season average. Four teams in the Pac Ten held them to 10 points or
>> less. BYU held them to zero.
>>
>> Clemson scored 31 against S. Carolina a couple weekw ago. Again, that's
>> about ~10 points more than they averaged against their ACC opponents.
>>
>> So, my question:
>>
>> If the SEC defenses (other than Florida and Alabama) are so great, why
>> did almost every OOC offense they played have a better than average game
>> against them?
>>
>> (To be clear, I think Florida played good defense this year, I think
>> Alabama played good defense this year, and even LSU, although they
>> weren't a good team overall. But the idea that playing these bigtime
>> SEC defenses has been oh-so-tough for Tebow, and especially any argument
>> along these lines in the context of the hypesman, is simply absurd).
>
> I got focused on defense because of a pregame show I saw where they made a
> point of it while comparing the conferences. As usual, you make all the
> right points and it probably doesn't mean as much as I once thought. Ohio
> state was #1 last year in defense and LSU #18 or so.
>
> I really don't study statistics in anything but horse handicapping and
> just go by my impressions whether they be from the media or just by what
> I see. Your analysis often makes me think I am too impressionable when it
> comes to the media's influence on me. None the less, my impression is
> that Florida is the stakes horse in an allowance race. I think Oklahoma
> was that way against TT. I don't know how to quantify that, but that is
> just my feel for it.
>
> I will ask this then... If Oklahoma is such an offensive machine and the
> SEC plays mediocre defense, why is Florida a favorite? By what you say,
> Oklahoma should be a 17 point favorite.
>

I guess about the best way I can respond to that is to point out that
(a) Ohio State was a bigger favorite than that against Florida two years
ago (IIRC, and I think I do), and (b) I wanted to be very clear in that
analysis that I *do* think Florida, Alabama, and LSU all play pretty
darn good defense, but the reason I think that comes from *their*
respective OOC matchups.

For instance, Florida held Hawaii, Florida State, and Miami to 28
points. Combined. In each instance, the OOC team put up significantly
fewer PPG than their average.

So, I mean, I wasn't actually talking about Florida's defense, I was
more talking about the defenses Tebow has seen this year.

I think there will be a lot of points scored in that game, regardless.
I think if they played next week, Oklahoma would come up with one or two
more stops than Florida and win by ten. But, I don't have anything real
solid to back that up. And when they play nearly a month after the
season ends, just about anything can happen.

I will admit this about the spread, Will: this season, it's been "bet
against Florida at your own risk"... I'm not sure they've missed a
spread all year, with the obvious exception of the Ole Miss game.

One thing I like about Oklahoma in this game: they've had a lot more
"tests" this year.

Half their games this year were against teams *currently* ranked in the
top-25. Five of their twelve games were against teams currently ranked
in the top *half* of the top-25.

That's a lot of big games. AFAIK, they have more victories over
currently ranked teams than any other squad: wins against #7, #11, #12,
#13, and #21. Obviously, those teams would all be ranked significantly
higher if Oklahoma hadn't beaten (in some cases eviscerated) them.

Their single loss ain't too bad, either: loss to current #3.

Florida has played only three currently ranked teams, with wins against
current #4 Alabama and current #15 Georgia, and a loss to current #25
Ole Miss.

A lot has been made over the last two years about how Florida and LSU
had to run the SEC gauntlet to get into that championship game, and how
that helped prepare them. I think it would be fair to say that this
year, the "gauntlet running" edge has to go to Oklahoma.

You know, this is all just fun and stuff for me. I like to argue this
stuff back and forth. I would give the edge to Oklahoma like I said,
but I think it's a pretty slim edge. Like I said, I expect them to win
by about 10, but anything can and will happen... this is, after all,
college football! Exciting stuff! <and, even though I'd rather see a
college playoff, we *do* get a handful of really, really interesting
bowl matchups this year, as usual >

Did you know the Big Ten teams are dogs in all but one of their seven
bowls? Ouch. Getting tOSU into the BCS really hurt us in that regard.

Cheers.


        
Date: 15 Dec 2008 16:39:01
From: Will_gamble
Subject: Re: more SEC domination to come
On Dec 15 2008 5:49 PM, Kyle T. Jones wrote:

> I think there will be a lot of points scored in that game, regardless.
> I think if they played next week, Oklahoma would come up with one or two
> more stops than Florida and win by ten. But, I don't have anything real
> solid to back that up. And when they play nearly a month after the
> season ends, just about anything can happen.
>
> I will admit this about the spread, Will: this season, it's been "bet
> against Florida at your own risk"... I'm not sure they've missed a
> spread all year, with the obvious exception of the Ole Miss game.
>
> One thing I like about Oklahoma in this game: they've had a lot more
> "tests" this year.
>
> Half their games this year were against teams *currently* ranked in the
> top-25. Five of their twelve games were against teams currently ranked
> in the top *half* of the top-25.
>
> That's a lot of big games. AFAIK, they have more victories over
> currently ranked teams than any other squad: wins against #7, #11, #12,
> #13, and #21. Obviously, those teams would all be ranked significantly
> higher if Oklahoma hadn't beaten (in some cases eviscerated) them.
>
> Their single loss ain't too bad, either: loss to current #3.
>
> Florida has played only three currently ranked teams, with wins against
> current #4 Alabama and current #15 Georgia, and a loss to current #25
> Ole Miss.
>
> A lot has been made over the last two years about how Florida and LSU
> had to run the SEC gauntlet to get into that championship game, and how
> that helped prepare them. I think it would be fair to say that this
> year, the "gauntlet running" edge has to go to Oklahoma.
>
> You know, this is all just fun and stuff for me. I like to argue this
> stuff back and forth. I would give the edge to Oklahoma like I said,
> but I think it's a pretty slim edge. Like I said, I expect them to win
> by about 10, but anything can and will happen... this is, after all,
> college football! Exciting stuff! <and, even though I'd rather see a
> college playoff, we *do* get a handful of really, really interesting
> bowl matchups this year, as usual>
>
> Did you know the Big Ten teams are dogs in all but one of their seven
> bowls? Ouch. Getting tOSU into the BCS really hurt us in that regard.
>
> Cheers.

This may not be a valid opinion, but I think sometimes teams play to the
level of their competition be it up or down. I think that sometimes SEC
teams take to much for granted OOC and don't do well. It seems like they
always play the big OOC games away also. Maybe the annual west coast trip
for Tennessee is the only evidence of that, I am not sure.

In several of these posts you have used Arkansas and Ole Miss' games as a
benchmark and I think that shouldn't be done because they both had brand
new coaches and systems that would yield unpredictable results, especially
early.

If I were betting money on it I would probably take Oklahoma and the
points. You have made some very compelling points. My only problem is
that the SEC has such a forceful showing the last two years that they are
hard to put in second place.

It really is going to be an exciting game. I wish we could all be
together to watch it.

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