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Date: 10 Feb 2009 17:13:47
From: RGP Loner
Subject: The Black swans of Poker.
I am currently reading this book called, The Black swan.

It is about the totally unexpected. Kind of like the inevitable WSOP
champion.


Like a turkey being raised for thanksgiving. Every day the farmer feeds
the turkey and more and more the turkey is conditioned to love and
appreciate the farmer.
The turkey has no other reference points for the way things are in his
weld, other than to get fat and happy on the farmers largess. But then,
Suddenly 3 days before thanksgiving , The turkeys whole world is turned
upside down.

That is a Black swan event.

It comes from the thought that there were no other swans but white ones.
then black swans were discovered in Australia, and the whole notion of a
swan was changed forever.

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Date: 11 Feb 2009 09:39:29
From: Stephen Jacobs
Subject: Re: The Black swans of Poker.

"RGP Loner" <aaaa0db@webnntp.invalid > wrote in message
news:bbl966xbdg.ln2@recgroups.com...
>I am currently reading this book called, The Black swan.
>

I tried to read it. The beginning was awful. But the reviews were so
good....I took a look someplace in the middle...it was still awful. A few
more places: awful awful awful.

The 1 sentence summary is very good, but I see no value (and frankly, little
relation to the 1 sentence summary) in the rest of the book.




 
Date: 10 Feb 2009 21:28:16
From: Bill Hartwick
Subject: Re: The Black swans of Poker.


RGP Loner wrote:
> I am currently reading this book called, The Black swan.
>
> It is about the totally unexpected. Kind of like the inevitable WSOP
> champion.
>
>
> Like a turkey being raised for thanksgiving. Every day the farmer feeds
> the turkey and more and more the turkey is conditioned to love and
> appreciate the farmer.
> The turkey has no other reference points for the way things are in his
> weld, other than to get fat and happy on the farmers largess. But then,
> Suddenly 3 days before thanksgiving , The turkeys whole world is turned
> upside down.
>
> That is a Black swan event.
>
> It comes from the thought that there were no other swans but white ones.
> then black swans were discovered in Australia, and the whole notion of a
> swan was changed forever.
>
> ----
> looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com
>
>
The author was on CNBC yesterday. He was calling for Bernanke's
resignation,
and his outlook for the world-wide economy was, in a word, alarming.
When questioned about his current holdings, he replied that he was
holding cash.



  
Date: 10 Feb 2009 18:45:58
From: mo_charles
Subject: Re: The Black swans of Poker.
> > I am currently reading this book called, The Black swan.
> >
> > It is about the totally unexpected. Kind of like the inevitable WSOP
> > champion.
> >
> > Like a turkey being raised for thanksgiving. Every day the farmer feeds
> > the turkey and more and more the turkey is conditioned to love and
> > appreciate the farmer.
> > The turkey has no other reference points for the way things are in his
> > weld, other than to get fat and happy on the farmers largess. But then,
> > Suddenly 3 days before thanksgiving , The turkeys whole world is turned
> > upside down.
> >
> > That is a Black swan event.
> >
> > It comes from the thought that there were no other swans but white ones.
> > then black swans were discovered in Australia, and the whole notion of a
> > swan was changed forever.
>
> The author was on CNBC yesterday. He was calling for Bernanke's
> resignation,
> and his outlook for the world-wide economy was, in a word, alarming.
> When questioned about his current holdings, he replied that he was
> holding cash.

that's all taleb ever owns (t-bills or cash). the black swan has a catchy
title, but the book is a shameless rehash of his much better work, fooled
by randomness.

mo_charles

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Date: 10 Feb 2009 18:50:40
From: RGP Loner
Subject: Re: The Black swans of Poker.
On Feb 10 2009 7:45 PM, mo_charles wrote:

> > > I am currently reading this book called, The Black swan.
> > >
> > > It is about the totally unexpected. Kind of like the inevitable WSOP
> > > champion.
> > >
> > > Like a turkey being raised for thanksgiving. Every day the farmer feeds
> > > the turkey and more and more the turkey is conditioned to love and
> > > appreciate the farmer.
> > > The turkey has no other reference points for the way things are in his
> > > weld, other than to get fat and happy on the farmers largess. But then,
> > > Suddenly 3 days before thanksgiving , The turkeys whole world is turned
> > > upside down.
> > >
> > > That is a Black swan event.
> > >
> > > It comes from the thought that there were no other swans but white ones.
> > > then black swans were discovered in Australia, and the whole notion of a
> > > swan was changed forever.
> >
> > The author was on CNBC yesterday. He was calling for Bernanke's
> > resignation,
> > and his outlook for the world-wide economy was, in a word, alarming.
> > When questioned about his current holdings, he replied that he was
> > holding cash.
>
> that's all taleb ever owns (t-bills or cash). the black swan has a catchy
> title, but the book is a shameless rehash of his much better work, fooled
> by randomness.
>
> mo_charles


I just ordered it ... thanks

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Date: 10 Feb 2009 18:13:49
From: Beatsy
Subject: Re: The Black swans of Poker.
On 11 Feb, 01:13, "RGP Loner" <aaaa...@webnntp.invalid > wrote:
> I am currently reading this book called, =A0The Black swan.
>
> It is about the totally unexpected. =A0Kind of like the inevitable WSOP
> champion.
>
> Like a turkey being raised for thanksgiving. =A0Every day the farmer feed=
s
> the turkey and more and more the turkey is conditioned to love and
> appreciate the farmer.
> The turkey has no other reference points for the way things are in his
> weld, other than to get fat and happy on the farmers largess. =A0 But the=
n,
> Suddenly 3 days before thanksgiving , The turkeys whole world is turned
> upside down.
>
> That is a Black swan event.
>
> It comes from the thought that there were no other swans but white ones.
> then black swans were discovered in Australia, and the whole notion of a
> swan was changed forever.
>
> ----=A0
> looking for a better newsgroup-reader? -www.recgroups.com

doubt it was intended - but if you alter all of your post to be in the
past tense, and then read the sentences in reverse order - it makes
exactly the same kind of sense...

----

> Kind of like the inevitable WSOP
> champion.

in relation to "black swan" - do you mean "rare" - or "previously
unheard of, but now commonplace"?


  
Date: 10 Feb 2009 18:43:32
From: RGP Loner
Subject: Re: The Black swans of Poker.
On Feb 10 2009 7:13 PM, Beatsy wrote:

> On 11 Feb, 01:13, "RGP Loner" <aaaa...@webnntp.invalid> wrote:
> > I am currently reading this book called,  The Black swan.
> >
> > It is about the totally unexpected.  Kind of like the inevitable WSOP
> > champion.
> >
> > Like a turkey being raised for thanksgiving.  Every day the farmer feeds
> > the turkey and more and more the turkey is conditioned to love and
> > appreciate the farmer.
> > The turkey has no other reference points for the way things are in his
> > weld, other than to get fat and happy on the farmers largess.   But then,
> > Suddenly 3 days before thanksgiving , The turkeys whole world is turned
> > upside down.
> >
> > That is a Black swan event.
> >
> > It comes from the thought that there were no other swans but white ones.
> > then black swans were discovered in Australia, and the whole notion of a
> > swan was changed forever.
> >
> doubt it was intended - but if you alter all of your post to be in the
> past tense, and then read the sentences in reverse order - it makes
> exactly the same kind of sense...
>
> ----
>
> > Kind of like the inevitable WSOP
> > champion.
>
> in relation to "black swan" - do you mean "rare" - or "previously
> unheard of, but now commonplace"?



Yes, but not that it is now common pace but that it should not be
considered outside a bell curve.

I am sorry for posting in such a confusing manner. It's just that I
don't know what my audience is.
But yeah, Every year it seams that the winner of the WSOP has himself
experienced a black swan event. But tot he rest of us ,we should learn to
expect such an event to occur more frequently than expected. Meaning
every WSOP winner will be a black swan.

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