pokerfied.com
Promoting poker discussions.

Main
Date: 14 Jan 2009 10:54:40
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Math question - SNG scenario
Ok kids, this one is easy. You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. 10
players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
nothing. Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.

Blinds are 100/200. UTG with 1500ish folds. Next player with 6000 limps.
Cutoff with 1600ish folds. Button with 225 chips folds, and SB with
1400ish folds. You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. You elect to
check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
stupid here.

Flop is 4s 4c 5s. You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. While
putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.

If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
play?

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

_____________________________________________________________________ 
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com






 
Date: 15 Jan 2009 20:31:19
From: Patti Beadles
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
A more difficult question: what do you do if he flashes
you 78s?

-P
--
Patti Beadles, Oakland, CA


  
Date: 15 Jan 2009 12:44:33
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 15 2009 2:31 PM, Patti Beadles wrote:

> A more difficult question: what do you do if he flashes
> you 78s?

Same (fold, that is). I was going to originally use 78s as the hand, but
decided to give RGP at least a fighting chance.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

_____________________________________________________________________ 
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com



   
Date: 17 Jan 2009 15:27:12
From: Beldin the Sorcerer
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario

"XaQ Morphy" <a1c5905@webnntp.invalid > wrote in message
news:hqj446xr47.ln2@recgroups.com...
> On Jan 15 2009 2:31 PM, Patti Beadles wrote:
>
>> A more difficult question: what do you do if he flashes
>> you 78s?
>
> Same (fold, that is). I was going to originally use 78s as the hand, but
> decided to give RGP at least a fighting chance.
>
Ok, what if he shows 8s8d?

Or 3s3d?

How likely are you to make the money if you fold, exactly? It's an unknown,
as the 250 stack could double up twice without TOO much luck.

vs 300-1 or so against 88 and 989-1 against 33.

> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven
>
> _____________________________________________________________________
> * kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com
>




   
Date: 15 Jan 2009 23:25:46
From: Patti Beadles
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
In article <hqj446xr47.ln2@recgroups.com >,
XaQ Morphy <a1c5905@webnntp.invalid > wrote:

>Same (fold, that is). I was going to originally use 78s as the hand, but
>decided to give RGP at least a fighting chance.

Do you? I'm pretty sure you have 95% EV in the tournament,
but you're 96% to win the hand. But I'm thinking in a hurry
between meetings.

No, wait, the fold is massively correct. You're risking 95%
tournament equity to gain 3%, since you're only about 98% to
win if you win the hand. There's no hand you can call with
if your opponent has outs.

If he has 2d 2h you call every time.

-P
--
Patti Beadles, Oakland, CA


  
Date: 15 Jan 2009 12:45:27
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 15 2009 2:31 PM, Patti Beadles wrote:

> A more difficult question: what do you do if he flashes
> you 78s?

Here's another one...what if it's online and you don't have any clue what
he has?

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

______________________________________________________________________ 
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com




   
Date: 15 Jan 2009 13:17:23
From: FellKnight
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 15 2009 3:45 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> On Jan 15 2009 2:31 PM, Patti Beadles wrote:
>
> > A more difficult question: what do you do if he flashes
> > you 78s?
>
> Here's another one...what if it's online and you don't have any clue what
> he has?
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

Then you call.

Fell
--
Be Loud. Be Proud. Be Considerate!

----- 
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com




 
Date: 15 Jan 2009 20:27:39
From: Patti Beadles
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
This is a surprisingly easy fold. You have right around 95%
chance of winning if you fold, and you're only 91% to win the
pot.

Actually, that's probably a little bit off, since I used ICM
to calculate it, and ICM is ignorant of both position and
blind size. The short stack gains equity from position but
loses it from the size of the blinds. Those two things probably
balance each other out, though.

-Patti
--
Patti Beadles, Oakland, CA


 
Date: 15 Jan 2009 08:46:45
From: Wayne Vinson
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 12:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> Ok kids, this one is easy. You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. 10
> players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
> nothing. Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
>
> Blinds are 100/200. UTG with 1500ish folds. Next player with 6000 limps.
> Cutoff with 1600ish folds. Button with 225 chips folds, and SB with
> 1400ish folds. You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. You elect to
> check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
> stupid here.
>
> Flop is 4s 4c 5s. You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. While
> putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.
>
> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
> play?
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

It's a trick question. The correct play it to avoid shitty structures
like that and stick to real poker.

Wayne Vinson
http://cardsharp.org/
Wayne (dot) Vinson (at) gmail (dot) com

-------- 
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com




 
Date: 15 Jan 2009 08:16:58
From: FangBanger
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 12:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> Ok kids, this one is easy. You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. 10
> players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
> nothing. Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
>
> Blinds are 100/200. UTG with 1500ish folds. Next player with 6000 limps.
> Cutoff with 1600ish folds. Button with 225 chips folds, and SB with
> 1400ish folds. You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. You elect to
> check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
> stupid here.
>
> Flop is 4s 4c 5s. You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. While
> putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.
>
> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
> play?

Show em and throw em !! Good for table image !!
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven


Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.
Voltaire

------- 
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com



  
Date: 29 Jan 2009 11:21:27
From: Whatever
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
FangBanger wrote:
> On Jan 14 2009 12:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
>
>> Ok kids, this one is easy. You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. 10
>> players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
>> nothing. Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
>>
>> Blinds are 100/200. UTG with 1500ish folds. Next player with 6000 limps.
>> Cutoff with 1600ish folds. Button with 225 chips folds, and SB with
>> 1400ish folds. You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. You elect to
>> check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
>> stupid here.
>>
>> Flop is 4s 4c 5s. You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. While
>> putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.
>>
>> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
>> play?
>
> Show em and throw em !! Good for table image !!
>> ---
>> Morphy
>> xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
>> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
>> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven
>
>
> Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.
> Voltaire
>
> -------
> : the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com
>

All in.


   
Date: 29 Jan 2009 21:59:46
From: Lab Rat
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario

"Whatever" <whatever@whatever.com > wrote in message
news:Jiggl.3$Ca.1@newsfe26.ams2...
> FangBanger wrote:
>> On Jan 14 2009 12:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
>>
>>> Ok kids, this one is easy. You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. 10
>>> players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
>>> nothing. Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
>>>
>>> Blinds are 100/200. UTG with 1500ish folds. Next player with 6000
>>> limps.
>>> Cutoff with 1600ish folds. Button with 225 chips folds, and SB with
>>> 1400ish folds. You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. You elect
>>> to
>>> check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
>>> stupid here.
>>>
>>> Flop is 4s 4c 5s. You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. While
>>> putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.
>>>
>>> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the
>>> correct
>>> play?
>>
>> Show em and throw em !! Good for table image !!
>>> ---
>>> Morphy
>>> xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
>>> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
>>> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven
>>
>>
>> Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit
>> atrocities.
>> Voltaire
>>
>> -------
>> : the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com
>
> All in.

Without actually doing the calculation, my gut feeling is that this is a
clear fold.




    
Date: 29 Jan 2009 11:46:37
From: greystoke
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
Its a trick question. Since this is a tournament, his hand went dead when he
flashed his cards with action pending.

--
Thanks,
Chris

Chris O'Connor
Software Deployment Specialist
Transfinder
120 Erie Boulevard
Schenectady, NY 12305

518-688-0078 ext. 1041
518-377-3716 (fax)
888-427-2403

coconnor@transfinder.com
www.transfinder.com

"Lab Rat" <robbie.buckley@optusnet.moc.au > wrote in message
news:49819c54$0$12942$afc38c87@news.optusnet.com.au...
>
> "Whatever" <whatever@whatever.com> wrote in message
> news:Jiggl.3$Ca.1@newsfe26.ams2...
>> FangBanger wrote:
>>> On Jan 14 2009 12:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
>>>
>>>> Ok kids, this one is easy. You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. 10
>>>> players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
>>>> nothing. Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
>>>>
>>>> Blinds are 100/200. UTG with 1500ish folds. Next player with 6000
>>>> limps.
>>>> Cutoff with 1600ish folds. Button with 225 chips folds, and SB with
>>>> 1400ish folds. You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. You elect
>>>> to
>>>> check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
>>>> stupid here.
>>>>
>>>> Flop is 4s 4c 5s. You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. While
>>>> putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.
>>>>
>>>> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the
>>>> correct
>>>> play?
>>>
>>> Show em and throw em !! Good for table image !!
>>>> ---
>>>> Morphy
>>>> xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
>>>> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
>>>> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven
>>>
>>>
>>> Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit
>>> atrocities.
>>> Voltaire
>>>
>>> -------
>>> : the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com
>>
>> All in.
>
> Without actually doing the calculation, my gut feeling is that this is a
> clear fold.
>




     
Date: 29 Jan 2009 09:02:50
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 29 2009 10:46 AM, greystoke wrote:

> Its a trick question. Since this is a tournament, his hand went dead when he
> flashed his cards with action pending.

Uhh, no.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com

"I think they are mad that i am borderline psycho" --igotskillz

"It's unfortunate that there are loons on both sides completely
obfuscating what's going on." --Official RGP Mantra

_____________________________________________________________________ 
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com




 
Date: 14 Jan 2009 14:12:24
From: Jason Pawloski
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 11:54 AM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> Ok kids, this one is easy. You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. 10
> players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
> nothing. Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
>
> Blinds are 100/200. UTG with 1500ish folds. Next player with 6000 limps.
> Cutoff with 1600ish folds. Button with 225 chips folds, and SB with
> 1400ish folds. You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. You elect to
> check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
> stupid here.
>
> Flop is 4s 4c 5s. You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. While
> putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.
>
> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
> play?
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

I can't wait till Doggy sniffs his way into this one.

--
"Actually, I will read Jason's posts too. He's smart also." - Paul
Popinjay, 10/21/2007 (http://tinyurl.com/4bggyp)

----- 
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com



 
Date: 14 Jan 2009 12:11:56
From: John_Brian_K
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
> play?

It depends?

========================================
You must not think me necessarily foolish because I am facetious,
nor will I consider you necessarily wise because you are grave.
========
BOOM byae
John

_______________________________________________________________________ 
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com



  
Date: 14 Jan 2009 12:13:02
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 2:11 PM, John_Brian_K wrote:

> > If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
> > play?
>
> It depends?

I can say that this is most assuredly incorrect.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

------- 
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com



   
Date: 14 Jan 2009 12:37:33
From: John_Brian_K
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
> > It depends?
>
> I can say that this is most assuredly incorrect.

lol

You think?

========================================
You must not think me necessarily foolish because I am facetious,
nor will I consider you necessarily wise because you are grave.
========
BOOM byae
John

____________________________________________________________________ 
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com



 
Date: 14 Jan 2009 11:28:40
From: GrouchySmurf1002
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 1:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
> play?

Find the guy who is hiding 1575 worth of chips and beat the piss out of
him.

Also, I'm not running the numbers but I'd all but guarantee it's an ICM
fold. Going broke 9% is too often.

____________________________________________________________________ 
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com




  
Date: 14 Jan 2009 18:13:04
From: Clave
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
"GrouchySmurf1002" <a1648@webnntp.invalid > wrote in message
news:80r146xq3r.ln2@recgroups.com...
> On Jan 14 2009 1:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
>
>> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
>> play?
>
> Find the guy who is hiding 1575 worth of chips and beat the piss out of
> him.
>
> Also, I'm not running the numbers but I'd all but guarantee it's an ICM
> fold. Going broke 9% is too often.

Then WTF bother playing 44 in the first place?

Jim




   
Date: 14 Jan 2009 19:46:13
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 8:13 PM, Clave wrote:

> Then WTF bother playing 44 in the first place?

Because you're on the BB in an unraised pot? please try to keep up here
ffs.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

____________________________________________________________________ 
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com




    
Date: 14 Jan 2009 20:31:38
From: Clave
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
"XaQ Morphy" <a1c5905@webnntp.invalid > wrote in message
news:55o246xn5v.ln2@recgroups.com...
> On Jan 14 2009 8:13 PM, Clave wrote:
>
>> Then WTF bother playing 44 in the first place?
>
> Because you're on the BB in an unraised pot? please try to keep up here
> ffs.

I got it quite a while ago, thank you very little.

But the question becomes, WTF were you thinking you'd "evaluate on the flop"
if you had no intention of playing even *quads* if they hit?

The whole OP was a troll.

Jim




     
Date: 14 Jan 2009 20:46:05
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 10:31 PM, Clave wrote:

> I got it quite a while ago, thank you very little.

Yeah it posted itself to a new thread so I didn't see it until after I
replied.

> But the question becomes, WTF were you thinking you'd "evaluate on the flop"
> if you had no intention of playing even *quads* if they hit?

Uhhh, because you don't know you're going to flop quads when the action
comes to you pre-flop? Are you sure you got it? I know it's hard for
some of you guys to imagine a world outside of your hole cards, but the
question has nothing at all to do with your cards or the board, and has
everything to do with your opponents cards, the board and the tournament
situation.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

____________________________________________________________________ 
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com




      
Date: 14 Jan 2009 20:53:03
From: Clave
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
"XaQ Morphy" <a1c5905@webnntp.invalid > wrote in message
news:dlr246xqgv.ln2@recgroups.com...
> On Jan 14 2009 10:31 PM, Clave wrote:
>
>> I got it quite a while ago, thank you very little.
>
> Yeah it posted itself to a new thread so I didn't see it until after I
> replied.
>
>> But the question becomes, WTF were you thinking you'd "evaluate on the
>> flop"
>> if you had no intention of playing even *quads* if they hit?
>
> Uhhh, because you don't know you're going to flop quads when the action
> comes to you pre-flop? Are you sure you got it? I know it's hard for
> some of you guys to imagine a world outside of your hole cards, but the
> question has nothing at all to do with your cards or the board, and has
> everything to do with your opponents cards, the board and the tournament
> situation.

No, I get it just fine -- your mind was made up (fold to a push regardless
of the flop) before the flop even came, as mine would have been, which makes
the allusion to a possible post-flop decision sound a bit disingenuous.

Jim




       
Date: 14 Jan 2009 21:08:53
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 10:53 PM, Clave wrote:

> No, I get it just fine

No, you don't. That's ok though, I usually avoid your threads because of
how thick you are, so I'll just step aside here. Enjoy!

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

---- 
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com



        
Date: 14 Jan 2009 21:33:23
From: Clave
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
"XaQ Morphy" <a1c5905@webnntp.invalid > wrote in message
news:50t246xmrv.ln2@recgroups.com...
> On Jan 14 2009 10:53 PM, Clave wrote:
>
>> No, I get it just fine
>
> No, you don't. That's ok though, I usually avoid your threads because of
> how thick you are...

Heh. A convenient excuse when you have nothing to contribute.


> so I'll just step aside here. Enjoy!

What a cowardly pantload.

Jim




         
Date: 15 Jan 2009 06:50:36
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 11:33 PM, Clave wrote:

> What a cowardly pantload.

Uhh, no. I just realize when I'm having a discussion with someone too
stupid to follow. If you were doggy I'd just throw you a stick and watch
you fetch it, but chances are if I did you would be too stupid to even
follow that.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

_____________________________________________________________________ 
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com



         
Date: 15 Jan 2009 14:06:28
From: Beldin the Sorcerer
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario

"Clave" <ClaviusNoSpamDammit@cablespeed.com > wrote in message
news:LOCdnZw0-405V_PUnZ2dnUVZ_rDinZ2d@cablespeedmi.com...
> "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5905@webnntp.invalid> wrote in message
> news:50t246xmrv.ln2@recgroups.com...
>> On Jan 14 2009 10:53 PM, Clave wrote:
>>
>>> No, I get it just fine
>>
>> No, you don't. That's ok though, I usually avoid your threads because of
>> how thick you are...
>
> Heh. A convenient excuse when you have nothing to contribute.
>
>
>> so I'll just step aside here. Enjoy!
>
> What a cowardly pantload.
>
Jimbo, the vast majority of the posters to this thread have concluded you're
not too bright.

Perhaps some introspection is in order.




          
Date: 15 Jan 2009 18:59:06
From: Clave
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
"Beldin the Sorcerer" <beldinyyz@verizon.net > wrote in message
news:EpHbl.345$Dx.187@nwrddc02.gnilink.net...
>
> "Clave" <ClaviusNoSpamDammit@cablespeed.com> wrote in message
> news:LOCdnZw0-405V_PUnZ2dnUVZ_rDinZ2d@cablespeedmi.com...
>> "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5905@webnntp.invalid> wrote in message
>> news:50t246xmrv.ln2@recgroups.com...
>>> On Jan 14 2009 10:53 PM, Clave wrote:
>>>
>>>> No, I get it just fine
>>>
>>> No, you don't. That's ok though, I usually avoid your threads because
>>> of
>>> how thick you are...
>>
>> Heh. A convenient excuse when you have nothing to contribute.
>>
>>
>>> so I'll just step aside here. Enjoy!
>>
>> What a cowardly pantload.
>>
> Jimbo, the vast majority of the posters to this thread have concluded
> you're not too bright.

Sure, Beldump. How many people can't be wrong?


> Perhaps some introspection is in order.

Heh. Not everyone posts here with your motives, you know. Some of us don't
need ego validation from strangers.

Jim




           
Date: 17 Jan 2009 15:17:53
From: Beldin the Sorcerer
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario

"Clave" <ClaviusNoSpamDammit@cablespeed.com > wrote in message
news:ONKdnXfIv9VkavLUnZ2dnUVZ_sfinZ2d@cablespeedmi.com...
> "Beldin the Sorcerer" <beldinyyz@verizon.net> wrote in message
> news:EpHbl.345$Dx.187@nwrddc02.gnilink.net...
>>
>> "Clave" <ClaviusNoSpamDammit@cablespeed.com> wrote in message
>> news:LOCdnZw0-405V_PUnZ2dnUVZ_rDinZ2d@cablespeedmi.com...
>>> "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5905@webnntp.invalid> wrote in message
>>> news:50t246xmrv.ln2@recgroups.com...
>>>> On Jan 14 2009 10:53 PM, Clave wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> No, I get it just fine
>>>>
>>>> No, you don't. That's ok though, I usually avoid your threads because
>>>> of
>>>> how thick you are...
>>>
>>> Heh. A convenient excuse when you have nothing to contribute.
>>>
>>>
>>>> so I'll just step aside here. Enjoy!
>>>
>>> What a cowardly pantload.
>>>
>> Jimbo, the vast majority of the posters to this thread have concluded
>> you're not too bright.
>
> Sure, Beldump. How many people can't be wrong?
Odds, Jimbo.
Like poker, this is about odds.

>
>
>> Perhaps some introspection is in order.
>
> Heh. Not everyone posts here with your motives, you know. Some of us
> don't need ego validation from strangers.
Non sequiter.

Now in case Xaq didn't explain it to you.... it has nothing to do with his
hand.
It has everyything to do with odds of winning money if you call vs odds of
winning money if you fold.

Quads with the other guy drawing dead (or any hand locked) is far different
than some percentage of not winning money there.




  
Date: 14 Jan 2009 12:28:38
From: gtech1
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
This is basically my line of thinking too (both on being too lazy to run
numbers and folding). If you call you probably have something like a 95%
chance of getting in the money b/c you still have 800 left if you lose.
But you probably have more than a 95% chance if you fold and have 2300 in
the SB.

On Jan 14 2009 2:28 PM, GrouchySmurf1002 wrote:

> On Jan 14 2009 1:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
>
> > If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
> > play?
>
> Find the guy who is hiding 1575 worth of chips and beat the piss out of
> him.
>
> Also, I'm not running the numbers but I'd all but guarantee it's an ICM
> fold. Going broke 9% is too often.

_____________________________________________________________________ 
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com




 
Date: 14 Jan 2009 12:36:52
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 12:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> Flop is 4s 4c 5s. You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. While

For those who apparently read every sentence in a vacuum (cough, gtech1,
cough), this is obviously UTG+1 moves all-in.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

------- 
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com



  
Date: 14 Jan 2009 14:01:14
From:
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
If it folds around does UTG get a walk in the BB?

On Jan 14, 3:55=A0pm, "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5...@webnntp.invalid > wrote:
> On Jan 14 2009 2:45 PM, number6 wrote:
>
> > Doesn't UTG + 1 become the new UTG when the original UTG folds ??
>
> How much UTG could a UTG UTG if a UTG could UTG UTG?
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmor...@donkeymanifesto.comhttp://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" =A0--Will in New Haven
>
> ---=A0
> RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader :www.recgroups.com



   
Date: 14 Jan 2009 14:12:14
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 4:01 PM, toddbryson wrote:

> If it folds around does UTG get a walk in the BB?

I played a SNG once on Bodog where I limped UTG and won the pot. BB
wasn't sitting out but hit fold when it got around to him. Awesome stuff.

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

_______________________________________________________________________ 
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com




    
Date: 15 Jan 2009 06:25:43
From: charrison100
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 5:12 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> On Jan 14 2009 4:01 PM, toddbryson wrote:
>
> > If it folds around does UTG get a walk in the BB?
>
> I played a SNG once on Bodog where I limped UTG and won the pot. BB
> wasn't sitting out but hit fold when it got around to him. Awesome stuff.
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

Last night on party I was playing .25/.50 6 max. I'm in BB 5 limps in
front I make it $2.50 3 callers. I hit bottom pair OE straight. I fire out
$1 and they all fold.

Chris

------- 
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com




  
Date: 14 Jan 2009 14:20:07
From: number6
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14, 5:12=A0pm, "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5...@webnntp.invalid > wrote:
> On Jan 14 2009 4:01 PM, toddbryson wrote:
>
> > If it folds around does UTG get a walk in the BB?
>
> I played a SNG once on Bodog where I limped UTG and won the pot. =A0BB
> wasn't sitting out but hit fold when it got around to him. =A0Awesome stu=
ff.
>

I was playing in this free roll and the 2 to the left of me were just
blinding out ... as far as I was concerned I had the button 3 times
every round ...


  
Date: 14 Jan 2009 12:45:59
From: number6
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14, 3:36=A0pm, "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5...@webnntp.invalid > wrote:
> On Jan 14 2009 12:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
>
> > Flop is 4s 4c 5s. =A0You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. =A0Whil=
e
>
> For those who apparently read every sentence in a vacuum (cough, gtech1,
> cough), this is obviously UTG+1 moves all-in.
>

Doesn't UTG + 1 become the new UTG when the original UTG folds ??



   
Date: 14 Jan 2009 12:55:13
From: XaQ Morphy
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 2:45 PM, number6 wrote:

> Doesn't UTG + 1 become the new UTG when the original UTG folds ??

How much UTG could a UTG UTG if a UTG could UTG UTG?

---
Morphy
xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
"You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

--- 
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com




 
Date: 14 Jan 2009 11:54:10
From:
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14, 12:54=A0pm, "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5...@webnntp.invalid > wrote:
> Ok kids, this one is easy. =A0You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. =A01=
0
> players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
> nothing. =A0Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
>
> Blinds are 100/200. =A0UTG with 1500ish folds. =A0Next player with 6000 l=
imps.
> =A0Cutoff with 1600ish folds. =A0Button with 225 chips folds, and SB with
> 1400ish folds. =A0You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. =A0You elec=
t to
> check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
> stupid here.
>
> Flop is 4s 4c 5s. =A0You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. =A0While
> putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.
>
> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
> play?
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmor...@donkeymanifesto.comhttp://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" =A0--Will in New Haven
>
> _____________________________________________________________________=A0
> looking for a better newsgroup-reader? -www.recgroups.com

I check raise.


 
Date: 14 Jan 2009 11:45:34
From: number6
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14, 1:54=A0pm, "XaQ Morphy" <a1c5...@webnntp.invalid > wrote:
> Ok kids, this one is easy. =A0You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. =A01=
0
> players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
> nothing. =A0Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
>
> Blinds are 100/200. =A0UTG with 1500ish folds. =A0Next player with 6000 l=
imps.
> =A0Cutoff with 1600ish folds. =A0Button with 225 chips folds, and SB with
> 1400ish folds. =A0You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. =A0You elec=
t to
> check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
> stupid here.
>
> Flop is 4s 4c 5s. =A0You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. =A0While
> putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.
>
> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
> play?
>

It depends on what math perspective you are looking at ... the gain in
chips for winning the hand versus the call is a no brainer ... You
call ...
The math perspective of risking $40 to increase your chances of
winning $40 minutely says instafold ...




 
Date: 14 Jan 2009 11:02:51
From: charrison100
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 1:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> Ok kids, this one is easy. You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. 10
> players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
> nothing. Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
>
> Blinds are 100/200. UTG with 1500ish folds. Next player with 6000 limps.
> Cutoff with 1600ish folds. Button with 225 chips folds, and SB with
> 1400ish folds. You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. You elect to
> check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
> stupid here.
>
> Flop is 4s 4c 5s. You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. While
> putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.
>
> If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the correct
> play?
>
> ---
> Morphy
> xaqmorphy@donkeymanifesto.com
> http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" --Will in New Haven

Instacall. They have exactly 2 cards that will make them a winning hand. 2
left of 45 cards is 1 in 22.5 or a 4% chance.

Chris

_______________________________________________________________________ 
looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com




  
Date: 14 Jan 2009 11:21:51
From: GrouchySmurf1002
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 2:02 PM, charrison100 wrote:


> Instacall. They have exactly 2 cards that will make them a winning hand. 2
> left of 45 cards is 1 in 22.5 or a 4% chance.

Math is hard.

_____________________________________________________________________ 
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com




   
Date: 14 Jan 2009 11:34:54
From: charrison100
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 2:21 PM, GrouchySmurf1002 wrote:

> On Jan 14 2009 2:02 PM, charrison100 wrote:
>
>
> > Instacall. They have exactly 2 cards that will make them a winning hand. 2
> > left of 45 cards is 1 in 22.5 or a 4% chance.
>
> Math is hard.

You're right It's 2 outs twice for the turn and the river. 8.8%


Chris

-------- 
* kill-files, watch-lists, favorites, and more.. www.recgroups.com



  
Date: 14 Jan 2009 11:04:21
From: Jimbo
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14, 2:02=A0pm, "charrison100" <a11f...@webnntp.invalid > wrote:
> On Jan 14 2009 1:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > Ok kids, this one is easy. =A0You're in a $20 double or nothing SNG. =
=A010
> > players start for a $20 + $2 entry fee, top 5 players get $40, 6-10 get
> > nothing. =A0Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
>
> > Blinds are 100/200. =A0UTG with 1500ish folds. =A0Next player with 6000=
limps.
> > =A0Cutoff with 1600ish folds. =A0Button with 225 chips folds, and SB wi=
th
> > 1400ish folds. =A0You're on the BB with 2400 chips and 4d 4h. =A0You el=
ect to
> > check and evaluate on the flop since there's no reason to do anything
> > stupid here.
>
> > Flop is 4s 4c 5s. =A0You check your quads and UTG moves all-in. =A0Whil=
e
> > putting the chips in he accidentally exposes his hand which is 6s 7s.
>
> > If we're looking at this from a pure math perspective, what's the corre=
ct
> > play?
>
> > ---
> > Morphy
> > xaqmor...@donkeymanifesto.com
> >http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> > "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is" =A0--Will in New Haven
>
> Instacall. They have exactly 2 cards that will make them a winning hand. =
2
> left of 45 cards is 1 in 22.5 or a 4% chance.
>
> Chris
>
> _______________________________________________________________________=
=A0
> looking for a better newsgroup-reader? -www.recgroups.com- Hide quoted te=
xt -
>
> - Show quoted text -

Fold....Online he's probably 75% to make the SF


   
Date: 14 Jan 2009 11:22:57
From: GrouchySmurf1002
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 2:04 PM, Jimbo wrote:

" Just for fun we'll say this is a live game."

"Fold....Online he's probably 75% to make the SF"


GG Reading comp.

----- 
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com




   
Date: 14 Jan 2009 11:21:12
From: charrison100
Subject: Re: Math question - SNG scenario
On Jan 14 2009 2:04 PM, Jimbo wrote:

> On Jan 14, 2:02 pm, "charrison100" <a11f...@webnntp.invalid> wrote:
> > On Jan 14 2009 1:54 PM, XaQ Morphy wrote:

> > > Just for fun we'll say this is a live game.
> >
> >
> > > ---
> > > Morphy
> > > xaqmor...@donkeymanifesto.com
> > >http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
> > > "You...are just as funny...as Popinjay is"  --Will in New Haven
> >
> > Instacall. They have exactly 2 cards that will make them a winning hand. 2
> > left of 45 cards is 1 in 22.5 or a 4% chance.
> >
> > Chris
> >
> - Show quoted text -
>
> Fold....Online he's probably 75% to make the SF

Reread the OP.

I am still doing the same thing online too.


Chris

____________________________________________________________________ 
RecGroups : the community-oriented newsreader : www.recgroups.com